David Frum

11.05.12

Electoral Vote Prediction Contest

Thanks to all who submitted their guesses. Unsurprisingly (considering polling data and general sentiment among regular commenters) the vast majority of you predict an Obama win. A surprisingly large number have him securing more than 300 electoral votes.

Now, for full disclosure, here's my electoral map. The state which gave me the most trouble was Virginia. I have it returning to the Republican column, but this will probably be Virginia's last cycle as a red state for some time. NoVa is growing like mad, and those are some rather blue counties.

If you would like to play with the polling numbers and see what potential outcomes we might witness on Tuesday, just click the image above. It takes you directly to 270ToWin.com, which features a fun (and interactive) map.

Update: Fail on my part. I was holding Nevada until after the weekend (a guy can dream, right?) and forgot to swap it over this morning. By most accounts, Nevada should be a solid state for Obama on Tuesday.