Vote Early and Often
12.06.12 7:49 PM ET
The Tiresias of Punditry
I am tickled to see that pundittracker.com has named me one of three finalists for best political prediction of 2012. My prediction was that Obama would be reelected, the Democrats would hold the Senate, and the GOP would hold the House. Ho hum, you say?
Well, it’s all about when I said it:
Tomasky (Daily Beast) hit the trifecta here. While the odds for this prediction grew throughout the year, Tomasky made it in December 2011, when it was considered unlikely. Intrade, for instance, pegged the probability at roughly 20%.
Personally, I think I made an even better prediction in early August 2012, when I wrote that “most political journalists would chuckle derisively at the idea that Obama is going to carry home 330 EV’s. Deride away.”