Poll Shocker

08.28.13

New York City: DeBlasio Running Away?

Brand new poll just out this afternoon from Qunnipiac: DeBlasio 36, Quinn 21, Thompson 20. Oh yeah: Weiner, 8.

This represents a huge shifting and I confess is completely surprising to me. In the previous Qpoll, DeBlasio had nudged into a one-point lead over Quinn at 26-25. But then a few days after that another public poll had Quinn slightly ahead. So people I've been talking with all thought it was still pretty close. Apparently not. If a candidate gets 40 percent in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, he or she wins outright. If none does, there's a run-off between the top two.

Really interesting internals here. Bear in mind that Quinn is a woman and Thompson African American as you read:

A gender gap is opening as de Blasio gets 43 percent of men and 30 percent of women, 

while Quinn gets 18 percent of men and 25 percent of women, with Thompson taking 18 percent 

of men and 21 percent of women. Black voters go 34 percent for de Blasio, 25 percent for 

Thompson and 15 percent for Quinn. White voters go 38 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for 

Quinn and 18 percent for Thompson. 

Sorry that copied'n'pasted so badly, but you get the idea. So DeBlasio leads among women and blacks. He was nowhere with black voters a few weeks ago. Fromentum! (If you haven't seen the ad starring his mixed-race son, check it out, it's awfully good). 

Frankly I'm not entirely sure I believe this. I'm not accusing Quinnipiac of anything; sometimes in totally good faith people select samples that are a little off (and sometimes a lot off, Gallup!). I feel it's not quite this big a blowout. The poll was taken during a period that overlapped the Times endorsement of Quinn, which she hasn't really yet had the chance to get the word out on, so that will probably help her by a couple of points. De Blasio getting 40 would be stunning, but he is clearly positioned to finish first and maybe by a comfortable margin.

It's 13 days until the voting. Quinn has all the real-estate people with her, and they hate De Blasio. We'll have to see how the overclass reacts to this news. Donald Trump might threaten to move out of the city if De Blasio wins. In which case De Blasio will get 50 percent.