Big Fat Story
Bradley's election was a done deal—until the voters spoke
This is what is terrifying the Obama camp. What if the pollsters have been misled by racists into believing Obama is miles ahead? African-American Tom Bradley was way ahead in the Los Angeles mayoral race in 1982, then lost. Political scientists have been debating ever since why the polls were so wrong. Do bigots find it difficult to admit their racism even to anonymous pollsters? Or was race a red herring and Bradley’s defeat because voters like the other guy better? If Obama loses, we’ll hear a lot about Tom Bradley.
Photo: AP
In 1948 Truman beat the odds—and the headline writers
It is an object lesson in poor opinion polling and early deadlines. Truman’s defeat was so likely, no one thought to ask the voters. The staff of The Chicago Daily Tribune, eager to meet the breakfast edition, “felt” Dewey had won and took a treacherous gamble. The most embarrassing night ever for pollsters, pundits, and politicos led to thousands of papers being desperately recalled by the publisher. The next morning, the little man from Missouri was given a redacted copy with its famous headline and couldn’t resist reveling in the press’s shame. All those tempted to declare “Obama wins!” and turn in for an early night on Tuesday should take heed. The race isn’t over until one candidate or the other has passed 270 electoral votes.
Photo: AP
Churchill’s wartime leadership counted for little in peace
Churchill was so focused on beating Hitler, he spent little time considering what Britain should look like in peacetime. However, his wartime deputy, Labour’s Clement Attlee, offered a welfare state and an end to pre-war class divisions. In the election after VE Day, Churchill lost handily, to his and everyone else’s surprise, though he won a majority of the popular vote. Six years later, Attlee lost in similar circumstances, and Churchill became prime minister again.
Photo: AP
Is Obama really a shoo in?
What if the polls are wrong, as when Harry Truman beat Tom Dewey in 1948? What if they are missing a late surge for McCain, as they famously overestimated support for Tom Bradley in the 1982 Los Angeles mayoral race? Political history is riddled with upsets. Are we about to witness another?
Six years before, Jim Webb had endorsed George Allen, a Republican favorite with his eyes on the presidency. By 2006, Webb was running against Allen in a race everyone expected Allen to win. Then Allen called one of Webb’s campaign “Macaca,” an obscure racist epithet, and his fate was sealed. After a nail biting finish, Webb became Senator, the Democrats won the Senate, and Allen joined the long list of nearly men to have allowed a loose tongue and an arrogant demeanor to ditch his hopes for a shot at the presidency. Had Allen held his tongue, it may have been Obama v. Allen next week – and a very different result.
Out of funds and out of luck, Reagan kept on campaigning and in the North Carolina primary narrowly beat Ford. The surprise win was the beginning of Ford’s eventual defeat at the hands of Jimmy Carter and of Reagan’s irresistible rise. At the convention in Kansas City, where Reagan won 47.4% of the delegates, the Great Communicator taunted victor Ford with a dazzling speech that proved to many Republicans they had made a fatal error.
Everyone was shocked when Hillary bounced back
After Obama’s surprise victory in Iowa over firm favorite Hillary Clinton, the pair met next in New Hampshire. This time it was Hillary who turned the tables, causing Tim Russert to describe it as “the biggest political upset in my lifetime.” Her Granite State victory set off a long march through the primaries that split the Democrats in two. Like Reagan’s defeat to Ford in 1976, the summer convention was left wondering whether they had elected the wrong candidate. And who Hillary’s supporters vote for on Tuesday may be the key to who wins the White House.
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