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Why Israel Doesn't Believe Obama Will Win
A veteran foreign correspondent on Israel’s version of the Bradley effect.
It's been clear, all this year, that most foreigners would love it if we'd elect Barack Obama. Editorial writers in Rome, Paris, and London conveniently put aside the fact that a black or brown candidate would never stand a chance in their countries, with their still rising anti-immigrant tide. Somehow they figure that America—the New World, after all, as far as they're concerned—can dabble in exciting experiments, even if Europeans won't.
Two countries, however, are exceptions to that rule. Georgians so appreciate McCain's loud support for their nation, against the reawakened expansionism of Russia, that if Georgians could vote they'd go for the older senator from Arizona.
And Israel, a key ally of the United States that is sure to remain in the middle of an eternally troubled region, would also prefer that McCain be elected.
I don't mean everyone, of course, but the Israeli preference is strong: whether it's the Orthodox Jew who moved from America to a West Bank settlement, or a more typical Israeli in Tel Aviv or Haifa or Jerusalem. They felt a bit more secure because of President Bush's unquestioning support for the Jewish state, and their media have told them that McCain (and certainly Palin) would continue that doubt-free, good-guys-versus-bad-guys line.
Israeli newspaper and radio news editors go a little bit further with their preference. They actually believe, and I mean as late as midday Monday, that McCain will win.
Our polls are easily dismissed. In case you didn't notice, pollsters saw their prestige plummet in Israel recently when Tzipi Livni was running in a primary for leadership of her Kadima Party. The polls—even the exit polls on the day of balloting—indicated that she would win big over General Shaul Mofaz. Yet her victory was razor thin.
Now, wondering if there's secret sexism on the part of voters who lie to pollsters, there's talk of a Livni Factor. (Shades of Tom Bradley!) So of course Israelis don't believe Obama is really leading here in the States.
A friend of mine who's an Israeli correspondent based in Washington for many years, Orly Azoulay, recognized that the young senator from Chicago had a certain something—so she quickly wrote a biography (in Hebrew) titled Barack Obama: He Has a Dream. It was published only about a month ago, and bookstore owners in Israel buried it. "Who cares about him? He's not going to win," they're reported to have said, as they ordered just a few softcovers and hid them in the back.
Ms. Azoulay reached a deal with her Tel Aviv publishers: If Obama wins, they'll publish an updated version and this time they'll push it to the highly visible bookshop windows. They apparently didn't think they'd have to make good on that, but Ms. Azoulay has been busy writing the extra chapters so they'll be ready immediately. If journalism is the first draft of history, what writer wouldn't want to help write the opening chapters?
Dan Raviv is a veteran foreign correspondent for CBS News. He reported from the Middle East and Europe for 15 years and now is based in Washington DC. He is author of the best seller EVERY SPY A PRINCE (about Israeli intelligence) and COMIC WARS (about the bankruptcy and renaissance of Marvel Entertainment).
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Issywise
In a region where it is uncertain if anything but the last Israeli pushed into the sea will accommodate Arab ambitions, is it possible for American foreign policy to somehow come to deal with the evilness of Israel's colonialist settlement policy?
Colonialism it is too: in its purest historical form--displacing one people from land to make room for preferred immigrants.
Israel faces it own choice between theocracy and democracy before long, but so long as it continues to build "facts on the ground" for any future final settlement, it is not acting in good faith toward that settlement.
We know that, the Israelis know that and the Arabs are right to say so. Israel itself stands astride and blocks the road to permanent peace (if indeed the other parties actually wish for it).
George W's daddy was the last American president who seriously confronted the settlement policy. Clinton ate his lunch with Jewish voters in 1992. Obama, if he wins, and presidents who follow him will likely still face the same two central questions: Are the Arabs actually willing to settle and do either we or the Israeli government have the political cajones to confront the issues implicit in the settlement policy.
I don't think the Israeli public should expect much change here unless they are willing to take the lead there.
vankuyk
I know of many Texans who have secretly voted for Barak Obama who dare not even tell their relatives! A reverse "Bradley Effect"?
hatuly
The Israeli public has received a distorted version of the facts via toxic emails under the guise of being "objective".
I myself have received at least 4.
The origins of these can be traced to extreme right wing political groups.
They fear that Obama will finally put a stop to the funding and support of the West Bank settlements.
Go Obama!
I hope he wins!
Thank you.
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