The Oscar Recession

Paramount’s decision to push Jamie Foxx and Robert Downey Jr.’s The Soloist into March was largely a money move. (Though not entirely—rumor has it that schlocky film kept posting worse and worse test screening scores). “In years past, Paramount might have spent the money to see how The Soloist did,” says Variety’s Anne Thompson to The Daily Beast. “But this year, because of the economy, Paramount took a good hard look at their numbers, and decided they didn’t need to spend it.”

Opening a film late and hiding it from critics and insiders has its advantages. It saves money by letting studios skip months of publicity. This may explain why Warner Bros and Sony, in addition to Paramount, are pursuing the strategy for Seven Pounds and Gran Torino.

But the late release schedule for many of this year’s films carries risks. Though it worked for Shakespeare In Love and Million Dollar Baby, both of which were under radar until they opened (and then had all the momentum when Academy voters were casting their ballots), it can be hard to derail a popular film that’s had months to shore up support.

That’s exactly what’s happening with The Dark Knight, which, despite its lowbrow superhero pedigree, has stepped into the Best Picture void thanks to huge box office, critical acclaim and Heath Ledger.

The Dark Knight is exactly the kind of film that may help the Academy itself, which makes revenue off the Oscar telecast, weather the financial crisis. Ratings for the tinsel town extravaganza tend to correlate with the popularity of the films nominated. Last year 32 million Americans tuned in to see indie No Country for Old Men win in the least watched awards ceremony ever. In 1998, 55.3 million people watched all-time box office champ Titanic triumph in the most watched awards ceremony ever. Dark Knight, easily the highest grossing film of the year, could be a corrective to last year’s poor showing, hugely boosting the ratings. The Oscar recession that’s serving up less competition for this juggernaut of a Batman film, just might be good for the Oscars after all.

Below, a brief look at some of the contenders (and losers) of the season.

The RIGHT ON TRACKS—Best Picture hopefuls seemingly unaffected by the recession.

The Reader, December 12, 2008

Storyline: Kate Winslet stars as an emotionally traumatized former Nazi prison guard with a secret.

Status: Despite notorious tantrum throwers Harvey Weinstein and super producer Scott Rudin’s highly publicized throw down about the film’s release date (Harvey won) it’s getting decent word of mouth as a legit best picture contender, exactly as Weinstein hoped.