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Al-Qaeda's Olive Branch to Obama
Whether it is recognized or not, Iran is now the main enemy of both the Iraqi people and the United States. In addition to their huge clout in the government, Iranians now directly control five Iraqi provinces in the south. This is why Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s conciliatory, though cautious, post-election message to Obama, and the new president’s response to it in the coming months, take on great importance.
Obama has already said he plans major changes in US policy, with a renewed commitment to finding Osama bin Laden and fighting Al-Qaeda. The Washington Post this week quoted an unnamed Obama advisor as saying the President-elect “wants to explore a more regional strategy in Afghanistan, including the possibility of negotiations with Iran.”
It is ironic that now that Al-Qaeda has been defeated in Iraq, Obama wants to refocus on fighting it, while negotiating with an ascendant Iran, which has emerged as the biggest strategic threat to US interests in the region. True, the Taliban is surging in Afghanistan, but the Taliban is not Al-Qaeda, even if they sometimes agreed on tactics.
Moreover, Afghanistan and Pakistan are far less important to the US, strategically, than Iraq and the Arab Gulf region, which contains 40 percent of the world’s oil reserves. A further decline in American influence in the Gulf will automatically lead to oil-rich Arab states gravitating towards Tehran.
The President-elect is surely aware of the dilemma in Iraq, which is why he stopped calling for full and total American withdrawal and acknowledged that a “residual” force might remain there indefinitely. Obama can declare an end to the war in Iraq, but he knows he cannot end the US’s wider commitment to security in the Gulf.
It no longer matters whether the war in Iraq “should’ve never been waged.” The question now is: do you overturn a doctrine that has survived since Harry Truman, and to which even Jimmy Carter subscribed? Or do you make a move that may have a domino effect and accelerate the erosion of America’s supremacy as the world’s greatest superpower? My guess is that Obama will stick to the doctrine that says no regional power should be allowed to have hegemony over the world’s largest oil reserves.
The biggest irony of all is that after the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the American hostage crisis with Tehran, Shia Islam was identified as the number one enemy for America. Today, the Shia are both allies, as in Iraq, and enemies, as in Iran. The Sunnis are US allies in most Arab states, but also enemies, in Al-Qaeda. Perhaps religion had nothing to do with it afterall.
Salameh Nematt is the International Editor of The Daily Beast. He is the former Washington Bureau Chief for Al Hayat International Arab daily, where he reported on U.S. foreign policy, the war in Iraq, and the U.S. drive for democratization in the broader Middle East. He has also written extensively on regional and global energy issues and their political implications.
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I think Obama "Needs to bust a cap in that ass"! I can't wait to see the 1st round of "Obama vs Osama" ! Hey Osama them 72 virgins are waiting and guess what? They are butt ugly and dumb as hell ! R.I.P Hail Obama
"Hail Obama". You libs crack me up. You can't worship a creator but you'll bow down to a one year rookie senator. Move to China and take all your friends with you.
@tjphilly. You conservatives crack me up. You still see the world in a Manichaean light, where all people are one type or another. You refuse to look at the Constitution's actual words and see it as a new Bible. Revolt and dissent were the true aims of the Founders, and they said as such, Jefferson going so far as to say that it's the duty of all true patriots to speak up..
I think you're the one who likes the idea of a communist paradise more. Or maybe fascist would be closer . . .
I am having trouble following a central thesis in this essay. The writer is all of the place. It seems that Mr. Nematt makes some salient points, but they are lost in the confusion of the writing. Better editing, please.
Where did my comment go?
"The Borgen Project has some good info on the cost of addressing global poverty.
$30 billion: Annual shortfall to end world hunger.
$540 billion: Annual U.S. Defense Budget."
Could negotiation with Iran lead to a more stable & manageable situation for the US? Relations with Iran would look like the old Cold War standoff, but that's a good thing. Remember that the Soviet Union's defeat in Afghanistan & subsequent collapse was what destabilized the region in the first place. It may be better to negotiate with one party, however they may posture and puff, than be constantly pestered with myriad warring factions.
So our war in Iraq was a liberation of the Iraqi people... and we are now an allied force aiding their battle against Iran - making Iran our greatest enemy in the process?
Funny. I was pretty sure it was an invasion to remove one tyrannical system and replace it with another tyrannical system... and an occupation to insure it's success.
So which is right?
If Iraq was majority Shiite, Then wouldn't a liberation mean that we would have helped the Shiites take power... and they would have allied with Iran??
I think so. And ya know what else? They would have allied with us - making Iran our ally in the process.
Then we could have looked like liberators in the eyes of the Muslims. And being friends with Israel... we might have been able to bring those two together. But at the least, we would be at peace with the world.
The conversation is confused by the fact that we assume religion defines the main factions. As the writer has pointed out cogently in the summation, religion is not the central issue, but tribal and military power distribution in the region. This fault line was drawn after WWII when the West arbitrarily decided to lump often violently opposed tribal groups into one "nation-state" in order to satisfy the post-colonial perrogatives of the US, Europe and Russia.
Remove the lensing of religious affiliation and things fall into place more simply.
Our only interest in the region is oil. The only interest the Middle East has in us is our money and popular culture. The only reason we are even discussing this is because of our addiction to foreign power sources. It's like a junkie arguing about how to make his drug pushers get along.
Thank you.
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