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After he dines with the Queen, Obama faces an uphill fight against Sarkozy, Merkel, and other skeptical world leaders at G-20, Andrew Neil writes. Could this be where Obama finally comes down to earth?
President Obama and the first lady swept into London last night with an entourage of around 500—who says the imperial presidency is dead?—but even the world's only superstar politician does not have enough stardust to sprinkle around to make tomorrow's G-20 meeting of the world's most important economies (accounting for 80 percent of global output) go his way. Indeed, Mr. Obama's first foray into global summits may even bring him down to earth with a bump: One excited pro-Obama commentator in this morning's Guardian fears that Obama will arrive as JFK but depart as Jimmy Carter (he thinks this is already happening in America). That is a crazy overreaction but Mr. Obama will struggle to create a global consensus out of squabbling world leaders.
For President Obama, the London summit will probably mark his international transition from messiah to man.
Of course he will be greeted by adoring fans waving little American flags (for many, it will be a celebration of the end of the Bush era) and there will be tea with the Queen. The Barack-Michelle double-act will be the only show in town as far as the international media is concerned (even France's glamorous first lady, Carla Bruni, has stayed away, for fear, some say, of being overshadowed)—unless, of course, the motley fringe of the antiglobalization protestors live up to their threats and wreak carnage on the streets of London, in which case these are the pictures that will dominate all prime-time coverage (but another Seattle is unlikely).
Mr. Obama will learn in London—if he doesn't already know—that the only supporter of his call for a co-ordinated global stimulus to mitigate the international recession is Gordon Brown—and in Europe the British prime minister has become an isolated figure on the matter. In quick succession in recent days, it has been opposed by the boss of the European Central Bank, the governor of the Bank of England, the French president (Nicolas Sarkozy), and the German chancellor (Angela Merkel).
The Obama-Brown stimulus is a dead duck before the G-20 even meets. Indeed an alternative agenda is gaining ground that is already overshadowing it: Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy are planning a joint press conference today to say that what the world needs is not more economic stimulus but a new era of global regulation of banks, executive bonuses, hedge funds, and offshore tax havens.
President Obama and Prime Minister Brown have effectively conceded defeat on the stimulus front: Their rhetoric is already muted on the matter and expectations are being rapidly managed down. The policy was fast becoming academic anyway. It is unlikely the U.S. Congress would agree to another stimulus and the markets would balk at any more borrowing by Britain. So the agenda moves more to global regulation.
Neither Mr. Obama nor Mr. Brown is averse to tighter rules for banking and bankers but they are wary of the overarching international constructs being promoted by France and Germany. (President Sarkozy is so keen on them that he is threatening to walk out of the summit if he doesn't get is way—the little attention-seeker!) Mr. Obama knows his administration will face open warfare with Wall Street if he hands it over to global regulators while Mr. Brown, though one of nature's regulators, is wary that the Europeans are out to strangle the City of London as the capital of international Anglo-Saxon finance.
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Paul Schrodt is a writer living in New York City. He has contributed to New York magazine, Radar, and Esquire.com.
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Andrew Neil is a publisher and broadcaster working out of London, New York, Dubai, and the south of France. He is chairman and editor in chief of Press Holdings Media Group, publishers of The Spectator, Spectator Business, and Apollo.
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Andrew Neil is a publisher and broadcaster working out of London, New York, Dubai, and the south of France. He is chairman and editor in chief of Press Holdings Media Group, publishers of The Spectator, Spectator Business, and Apollo.
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Andrew Neil is a publisher and broadcaster working out of London, New York, Dubai, and the south of France. He is chairman and editor in chief of Press Holdings Media Group, publishers of The Spectator, Spectator Business, and Apollo.
TRIATHLON
"(24) Twenty-Four Point Communiqué"
The European Union will act in a manner that will unify the new European reality of an Eastern and Western Europe dependent upon solid relationships with the Russian Federation, and to that end "Empire" domination within the new Europe will be ended. A more centralized (EU) European Union, with two parts, Eastern and Western Europe, more of a "Confederacy" of states living within and dependent upon each other within their Geo-Regional Area. The (G-20) to that end has drafted a document delivering a unified message, limited for the present time to generalities, awaiting the (G-20) meeting were the next step, in many will lead to the hamming out of the major points, the "(24) Twenty-Four Point Communiqué", pledging "To avoid Empire protectionism" . The creation of a supra-national reserve currency, and also forcing national banks and international financial institutions to diversify their foreign currency reserves, adopt measures allowing for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to become an internationally recognized super-reserve currency," will be just one of many to be discussed, but an "Empire" twisting of arms for an "Afghanistan" exchange will be a non-starter, along with more troops, more time, more money, mission creeps, and the "Empires" continued control of (NATO) the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But, the future reduction of "Empire" troops in Europe and Missiles will be on the agenda, either at the (G-20), or the (NATO) conference, this is now the (21st) Century.
drkaza12
you act like this is news. as if Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, got the jesus of conservatism recently. this has been something brewing for a while and now with bush out of the picture and a slightly more progressive america demonstrated in Obama, the glory of conservative politics gets to front itself off in its full glory unblemished by bushes foibles.
the surprise is Stephen Harper who a while back supported President obama and trumpeted the value of a Keynesian agenda.
KofTX1
First off, the only people that seem to be throwing around the messiah moniker are President Obama's critics. Secondly, as a rule, politics is always local. Messiah or man, no world leader wants to be perceived as being hostile or at odds to a man that there own country would elect before them. Sarkozy and Merkel are posing so they won't appear to be bowled over by Obama. PERIOD. It's not like Obama doesn't want a more effective regulatory system. Hell, he campaigned on the idea. HE'S A DEMOCRAT. If you critics weren't so obsessed with "exposing" President Obama to be a fallible man (we knew that and voted for him anyway) just to make yourself feel more secure then you would take note of the TREMENDOUS strides that have been made in diplomacy with China, Russia AND Iran.
xbainx
Even in the U.K. there is a conservative party. Here we would call them "the ruling class" or "lords a leaping". And they hate the poor too.
Imagine how much more it hurts for them! They go from a total monarchy where you can kill any peasant you like, to socialized healthcare and welfare for all. They even tried a poll tax in the 80's. That means you have to pay to vote. We must always guard democracy from those that would take it from us.
PhoebeFay
So, if Obama fails to solve the world's financial problems in one day's worth of meetings, he's a failure and loses his lofty place with the angels.
Okay, no problem with unreasonable expectations here.
*thunks head on keyboard*
Just so you know, those of who actually voted for Obama have never considered him a messiah. We didn't elect a savior. We elected a leader, a man who can combine vision, intellect and pragmatism to effect change over the long term. It's about persistence and hard work, and his supporters understand that. Only his critics seem to want miracle cures and overnight successes.
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