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Newt's Rebellion
David J. Phillip / AP Photo
The former speaker says voters are so fed up with the GOP that they might split off to form a third party in 2012. Pollster Douglas Schoen explains why that idea isn’t so loony after all.
Newt Gingrich may be on to something.
He said last week at the College of the Ozarks in Missouri that if the Republican Party doesn’t get back to its small-government, limited-spending tradition, that there might well be a third-party movement in 2012.
To be sure, while a great deal of energy and passion was generated in 2008 by Ron Paul and his supporters, it isn’t clear to me how much substantial support there could be for a right-wing party initiative.
It’s not outside the realm of possibility that at the same time that Gingrich is organizing a far-right party, the mirror image on the far left could take shape.
The growth of Fox News’ audience for Glenn Beck, Bill O’Reilly, and the newly packaged Sean Hannity, as well as the growth of the anti-big-government Tea Party protest movement goes well beyond the Republican Party. But it would be wrong to think that this movement represents more than 10 to 15 percent of the total electorate. The vast majority of American voters, however upset they may be about the size of the deficit and the size of the spending package embodied in the budget that the House and Senate just passed, aren’t ready to take to the streets in support of such a narrow policy agenda.
No, the reason Gingrich is onto something is because for a long time, the American people have been frustrated with the two-party system and have been seeking alternative answers. Polling that Scott Rasmussen conducted before the 2008 election showed that close to half of the electorate was willing to consider a third-party alternative if they disagreed with the major-party candidates on the key issues facing the country. Former Gen. Colin Powell received as much as one-third of the vote in polls as a third-party candidate, and a solid 20 to 25 percent indicated that in a generic contest with an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican, they wanted a third-party alternative.
What then, are the circumstances that are necessary for such a party to emerge in 2012, encompassing more than just a narrow but mobilized segment of the center-right?
First, the Obama administration would have to fail significantly. Given the success of the G-20 summit and the meetings with NATO, as well as the recent increase in the stock market, it is hard to see that happening. But it has only been 78 days since Barack Obama took office. If he faces the same reaction in Congress to some of his policy initiatives on climate change, health care, and overall spending that Bill Clinton faced in 1992, an enfeebled Republican Party and a potentially discredited Democratic Party could leave a wide hole in the middle.
Looking at the American electorate, 50 to 60 percent of voters—centrist Democrats, centrist Republicans, and the third of Americans who are independents—are open to the prospect of a centrist party.
And there is also the possibility of a third party on the extreme left, a prospect that is already being discussed on the Huffington Post, and which was implicitly raised by Jerry Seib’s column in Friday's Wall Street Journal. Such a party would oppose any corporate welfare and support fairly significant redistribution of income. Of course, the Obama administration, at least in terms of the inequality gap, has proposed specific steps to close it, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that at the same time that Gingrich is organizing a far-right party dedicated specifically to limited government, the mirror image on the far left could take shape, with a party explicitly committed to redistributionist policies.
There are structural problems with a third-party movement of any ideological stripe. It is simply hard for a third party to organize, get recruits, and, most importantly, raise money. The ballot-access laws in America, while surmountable, remain draconian for independent candidates, and the two major parties, who appear to disagree on virtually everything, agree on the need to keep any alternatives off of the ballot.
But Gingrich did speak to an extraordinarily important phenomenon in American politics, which is the absolute and complete frustration and disdain that many voters have with the established parties and system. It wouldn’t take much to crack that system and to have voters clamoring for alternatives, as Gingrich suggested. The problem, from Gingrich’s point of view, is the alternatives may well be more substantial in the center or on the far left than on the far-right, though he’s certainly not wrong to speak of the potential fissures that could come.
Douglas E. Schoen is a founding partner for Penn, Schoen & Berland and a co-inventor of overnight polling. He is the author of The Power of the Vote: Electing Presidents, Overthrowing Dictators, and Promoting Democracy Around the World and Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System.
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parisjazz
Tina Brown should get the author of The Republican War Against Science to write on this site. This book illuminates how Gingrich perverted the path of science in this country. There should be an articulate voice that deconstructs his Contract For America. Ignorant Americans will not thrive.
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pr54321
I'll believe it when I see it. The real reason you don't see viable third parties in this country is that the platforms of the two parties are so amorphous, they can expand to encompass just about any ideology, and they can (and do) change over time. It wasn't that long ago that the Republican Party was the party of businessmen and the East Coast elite, and the Democratic Party was the party of rural populism.
But a more important point is that Americans have very short memories, and they will tend to believe what party leaders say, even if their past actions don't support the truth of those statements. The Republican Party will reassert itself in 2010 as the anti-government, anti-deficit party, and the activist base will line up behind the Rs because they'd rather control the House than support a well-defined opposition party; and the Rs will say whatever they have to say to get elected; and the centrists who are upset with the Democrats in Congress will vote Republican, because they will have already forgotten that the Republicans have a miserable (and hypocritical) record when it comes to government spending.
Maezeppa
Newt seems to have some kind of hormone condition. He's more womanish all the time, the voice, the feminize facial features, etc.
Cforchange
Gringrich is both on to and up to something. Could the agenda be a Catholic church based political party which will include calling home all the evangelical Catholics?
My Catholic mentor who is well past 70 has a 20' foot wall covered with pic's of himself and all the GOP superstars is set to leave the GOP should they not shed the meddling in personal issues. Yes he's influenced me but so have all the murders by assault rifle this past week. Everyday there are more reasons to leave the GOP.
It is doubtful that a new party will form - their are deep reasons for party choice. Sure the erractic fringes will have their tantrums but that isn't the sane middle.
The next wave of Independent party growth will be the real tea party. If Obama can't fix it, the 24% black vote most likely will be right there too. This hard truth should really make the snake charmer politician quake in their boots.
flyoverland
I think the main point is that people out here in flyoverland feel abandoned by both parties. The extreme left will always feel left out it is because it is such a small fringe. It is simply irrelevant and only used by Democrats to get elected and then thrown back. The real opportunity is in the middle. I was listening to some steelworkers this morning who are protesting the use of Indian steel in a US/Canada pipeline that is being built right past a shuttered American steel plant. They blame unfair trade which is usually ascribed to Repbulicans, but they also mentioned the cap and tax proposals they thought would end steel production in America altogether. Unlike previous "victim classes" cultivated by Democrats, blue collar workers won't buy it. They don't want welfare and the lies of being promised imaginary "green jobs" they want real jobs and they want them now. They know in the current environment, "green jobs" making windmills can go to China just as easily as steel. This American backbone class is ripe and would step up to someone who will promise to end allowing politics to interfere with their ability to earn a living.
sagaderisa
I agree with mblips, and disagree that Obama would have to fail. I think that the real issue is that the Republican Party is so fractured that it wouldn't take much to win back the Obamacons and get some of the wavering Republicans to side with a splinter group. I disagree with Gingrich on what that would need to look like though - I don't think it can be illustrated on a left-right spectrum. It seems like there are the reactionary/obstructionist Limbaughs, represented by McConnell, and then people like Eric Cantor, who really are trying to take the party in a new, more viable direction. Even if Cantor is a revisionist and probably only paying lip service, he talks about oversight, taxing the AIG bonuses, and generally wanting to use taxpayers dollars well without falling into the tired "tax cuts tax cuts tax cuts" line (which it sounds like Gingrich is falling into).
sonofloud
Obama sold out his democratic base and Bush sold out the republican base (although not as badly as Obama) so what will the people do?
Nothing as usual.
TexGator
The flaw in this argument is assuming that Newt would form a "centrist" third party option. In reality Gingrich would most likely form a more right-wing third party option appealling mainly to the Teabaggers (I love that term for them) excluding the few remaining moderate Republicans and further splintering the GOP. Newt is hardly Mr. Popularity among independents and moderate dems so I'm not sure how he is going to put together a winning (centrist) coalition for 2012 or beyond.
While I agree that there may be an appetite for a third option among the independents and party moderates I would be surprised if Gingrich had it in him to be their standard bearer. More likely he becomes the right's Ralph Nader (only not so frumpy-looking).
steff47
it's called power honey they all want it will do any thing for it
the republican can't belive they lost it will say or do what it takes to get it back their so called values is just another word
for give it too me
hungryhungryhorus
As a 25 yr old male, I've voted democratic since the day I turned 18, despite the fact that my value structure is almost word for word, the original Republican platform (low taxes, small government, personal freedoms). The reason I don't vote Republican is because they're bankrupt.
They've abandoned personal freedom values to curry the right wing "oppress everyone" religious voters.
They've abandoned small government in all but words.
They still don't raise taxes, but they spend like every day is their last and we have to pay for that somehow. We'll either pay for it in taxes or lower quality of life in some other way.
I can't trust the Republican party to follow through on their promises, and the promises I can trust that they'll keep (exalting evangelical christianity to an elevated status) I don't want them to keep.
Democrats, on the other hand are also very corrupt, but after Republican rule I've come to see raising taxes not as burdensome but as responsible fiscal policy in dealing with the decisions made in the past. Tack that on to the social freedoms they campaign for and in my eyes you've got a winner (sorry as they may be).
In short, these days when a republican says a democrat is going to raise taxes, I know that's probably because it's the responsible thing to do in the face of irresponsible republican spending.
sagaderisa
flyoverland, I like your term "the American backbone class" and I think that you have a good point that a third party could peel away people by being loyal to workers - I think both Democrats and Republicans fall into the trap of trying to please everyone by appeasing business by not ensuring workers' rights and their ability to earn a living (only working full-time - not that they don't work hard, but the wages businesses pay are often too low), and trying to keep people afloat via welfare. Given the solutions history has offered us thus far, I think that workers have to come together and demand better wages (otherwise known as forming a union- union workers earn 30% more than their non-union counterparts), which is difficult these days.
One crucial piece of the solution currently being discussed is the Employee Free Choice Act would make it easier for workers to form unions, and therefore get real, well-paying jobs, by 1) strengthening penalties for employers who violate labor law, 2) giving the choice of how (to decide whether) to unionize, and legally recognizing a process which is statistically significantly less intimidating, and 3) ensuring that once they unionize, they can get a first contract. For more info, see http://www.americanrightsatwork.org/publications/general/undermining-the-ri ght-to-organize-employer-behavior-during-union-representation-campaigns.htm l
Truthseeker
"The extreme left will always feel left out it is because it is such a small fringe. It is simply irrelevant and only used by Democrats to get elected..."
Blah blah blah, but isn't it amazing that we are still here, despite a massive propaganda war led by big business via CBS, CNN, MSNBC, FAUX ad nauseum? In truth it was the progressive, activist movement that has re-energized the Democratic base and resulted in the presidency of Barrack Obama.
I wouldn't call that irrelevant, but the brainwashed rightwing nut jobs who think (1) Obama is a Muslim, (2) Obama is a foreigner, (3) spending during recessionary times is BAD, and (4) Jesus should become King of America -- these people ARE IRRELEVANT not to mention, not very bright.
Like Goldstone wrote centuries ago, "every man is born a whig or a tory."
AndreainNY
Interesting, flyoverland. This may be the time when all slogans are tested. In other words, everything's on the table from right and left.
Hawnzz
flyoverland
Both extremes of the political spectrum are irrelevant. That shows your own bias.
Green jobs are extremely important. Right now, our energy comes from the countries that wish our destruction. We are funding the same people which wish our demise. How smart is that? I'd rather send our billions to the heartland then to a dictator or despot. (I'd rather see palaces built in Iowa then in Saudi Arabia.)
Certain jobs are not going to come back. We have to adapt. We have to develop new skill sets. I may wish to have the body I had at 21, but no matter what I do... I'll never be 21 again. (And that's ok) To hang onto what is past is foolish.
I think a 3rd party of independents could form. There are more independents then there are registered Republicans or Democrats. But what has kept this country paralyzed is our inability to compromise. Issues which are really secondary... halt the political process. They often cut a clean line right down the middle, making a centrist party very difficult to form.
Thank you.
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