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The Taliban's Nuclear Threat
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As insurgents close in on Islamabad, The Daily Beast’s Gerald Posner reports that Taliban forces are on the verge of seizing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal—which has the capability to hit India, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
This morning, Taliban units took control of the Buner region of Pakistan, bringing their burgeoning insurgency within 60 miles of the capital city of Islamabad. The government called the advance a breach of a recently signed peace agreement. But what did they expect? Any store owner who has faced ever-increasing protection payments to local gangsters could have told the Pakistanis that their recent string of capitulations to the Taliban—striking peace deals and ceding territory—was doomed to failure.
You think the stock market looks bad over the last two years? Let a Taliban spokesman announce that Mullah Omar has his finger on the Islamic Bomb.
The Taliban advance should be causing high Richter-scale reactions inside the Obama White House. Counterterrorism officials have long warned that al Qaeda is desperate to obtain weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is in play if the Taliban insurgency should unseat the government of Asif Ali Zadari.
Pakistan has been a member of the nuclear club since in 1987. Intelligence estimates are that the country now has between 50 and 100 nuclear missiles that can travel 1,200 miles. That places much of India, Saudi Arabia, and eastern Iraq within range. With slight improvements in the rockets’ booster phase—not a difficult technological advance—Jerusalem could be hit.
Pakistan straddles a fault line between secularism and fundamentalism. Many Pakistani military and intelligence officers are markedly more radical than the centrist Zadari and openly supportive of Osama bin Laden. Pakistan’s equivalent of the CIA is still enraged by the central government’s abandonment of both the Taliban and the Kashmiri jihadis. Fundamentalist religious schools—of which Pakistan has more than any other country—churn out thousands of radical Islamists, and outlawed militant parties regularly resurface with new names.
Already, the Obama administration is confronting the problem of a vast, unpoliced territory along the Pakistan-Afghan border that is a safe haven for extremists. Last week, the Taliban commander in the Swat region told a reporter that Osama bin Laden would be welcome in his area, which the Pakistani government has ceded to the control of Islamic fundamentalists. But the CIA's nightmare scenario is now closer to reality: full-blown civil war in which a Taliban-style government wins control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
A Pakistani government led by Sunni fundamentalists could launch a nuclear attack on Iran's Shia provinces, its longtime foe India, and definitely Israel. Economic upheaval in the West would be assured by nuking oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. You think the stock market looks bad over the last two years? Let a Taliban spokesman announce that Mullah Omar has his finger on the Islamic Bomb.
Of course, the use of a nuke by the Taliban would mean certain annihilation for Pakistan, because countries with their own nukes, such as Israel and India, would massively retaliate. But the radicals running Pakistan might not care. If they see themselves as the ultimate martyrs, they might relish meeting Allah in paradise.
This is the scenario that has kept some U.S. intelligence analysts awake at night. With today’s announcement that Taliban insurgents are within an hour’s drive of Islamabad, it might also keep up some members of the Obama administration.
Gerald Posner is the award-winning author of 10 investigative nonfiction bestsellers, ranging from political assassinations, to Nazi war criminals, to 9/11, to terrorism. Posner lives in Miami Beach with his wife, the author Trisha Posner.
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Gerald Posner is The Daily Beast's Chief Investigative Reporter. He's the award-winning author of 10 investigative nonfiction bestsellers, ranging from political assassinations, to Nazi war criminals, to 9/11, to terrorism. His latest book, Miami Babylon: Crime, Wealth and Power—A Dispatch from the Beach, was published in October. He lives in Miami Beach with his wife, the author Trisha Posner.
great... we're f*cked!
What an absolutely ghastly jaw dropping story! Think about Gerald Posner's opening statement, folks: "The Taliban is within 60 miles of the capital of Islamabad." Once Zadari started making concessions to the Taliban allowing Sharia law and ceding territory, "dealing with the devil" (my quotes), he has in effect guided the destruction and takeover of his country. Forget about the Iranian nuclear debacle for a moment. There is a strong possibility of the Taliban beating the Iranians to obtain nuclear weapons or that both obtain them at about the same time. I think they would attempt nuclear blackmail then use the weapons if they don't get what they want. I can only hope the U.S. Government has some tricks up its sleeve to not allow this to turn into a doomsday scenario. Brilliant writing, Gerald!
Scary stuff, all right. But let's be clear--unseating the current government doesn't necessarily imply getting control of the military. And while obviously some of the jihadist minions are willing to become "suiciders", funny how the leadership can't be bothered. Aside from the true nightmare--that the Pakistani nuclear technicians are already of such a radical bent--what coercion would the jihadists have to force them to launch, when clearly the technicians and their families would soon die in either case? Finally, I find it hard to believe that Western intelligence agencies haven't uncovered the secret location of these weapons. Pre-emptive strikes, anyone?
In other words, yes, it's a dreadful problem, but let's not wet ourselves...
Texican
Good comment. The Pak military will probably step in fairly soon. The Taliban have roughly 0% chance of taking control of Pakistan's nukes. None the less civil war and a broader war in the Af/Pak region is a bad deal indeed.
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I don't buy into the 2012 "end of the world" scare scenario. I as many others believe, that if there is truth in the predictions for 2012 is will be more like the end of the world as we know it... which would not be such a bad thing and I believe we are witnessing the signs of the build up to a collective world wide change of attitude about how we humans interact.
I firmly agree with you about a coordinated military action by the US, China and Russia to remove and destroy Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and manufacturing facilities but keep everyone else out of it... especially Israel.
We have been living with the fear of rouge nukes since the fall of the USSR... it is no less scary adding a few more nukes, but the worst case scenario, and the one that would mean total world destruction, would be a missile launch and the following counter strikes.
A single bomb going of would still be horrific, but that is still much better than a world wide conflagration.
it's a completely western viewpoint to worry about retaliation consequences. it's a really really difficult thing to imagine that there are people with completely different philosophical and moral frameworks, that differ at the atomic level, but the taliban / jihadis are just that.
they seek the end of times because it is the fulfillment of their religious prophecy. the 12th mahdi, their version of the messiah, but one who demands that the world will end violently. the one who Ahmadinejad references in "political" speeches. ending the world in a hail of nukes would be their way of precipitating (think about how powerful a concept that is) the coming of their messiah.
that these people have not only sympathizers, but enablers, with access to nukes is unfathomably scary.
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This is easily resolved. We just nuke Pakistan into non-existence. Then we nuke Iran into non-existence.
Just for a moment, think "why not?"
What would the tenor be around the planet if Pakistan and Iran ceased to exist?
Let's talk world peace. Instantly.
Just
What are
The chances of
Us or the
Pakistani army
Letting that
Happen?
Seriously.
I enjoy your comments, but seriously, the Pakistani military is aligned with the fundamentalists and the Taliban. The Pakistani military and intelligence community has been supporting the Taliban for years.
hmm some nice sensationalist reporting here. I don't think the Taliban is capable of capturing the capitol city of a foreign nation, especially one backed up by the US or locating a country's nuclear arsenal, using it, and finding the means to deliver it
Well at least we have the CIA fired up and motivated to keep us safe. No worries though...Obama will go shoot some hoops with Omar and bin Laden and everything will work out.
Relax. The Israeli air force will bomb them back into the stone age. Just after they take care of Iran. You can see where this is going?
What does anyone think the US will do about this very real threat?
Can't use aggressive interogation techniques on suspected toerrorists, even if there is a credible reason to believe that one of them might have information on this very move.
Can't send in troops to protect this nuclear arsenal - might get us in trouble at home.
Can't use threats or economic intimidation - look at the US economy.
Can't just ask nicely for they to stop trying to get the nukes - they think getting thier hands on those weapons will sned them all straight to Allah.
So? Any suggestions?
finder
The Taliban
Is a much bigger
Political Threat than
A military threat.
The Afghans
Embraced
Them to bring
Stability to the
Chaos the Russkies
Left behind.
The worst that will
Happen
Is they will try to get
Radioactive material
To make a dirty bomb.
Even that
Is a brazillion times more
Of a psychological
Than a real
Threat.
A bazillion times more of a psychological threat? We can't know that. Just look at the fight that is being waged in trying to understand why so many of the links in our planets food chain are dying off and going extinct. It is a fight against pollution and tampering with things we barely understand. We do not need any acceleration of the process involved in the destruction of our ecosystem. Fast death? Slow death? I don't want either, but a slow death with drawn out suffering from hunger, disease, warring factions of survivors and the rest seems to be a scarier threat to me and that is what we will get if we don't start cleaning up instead of polluting.
Moe
I've read your post
Twice
I'm having a little trouble
Following along.
Could you weave this
A little differently?
Maybe the word hasn't reached Miami but Mullah Omar is part of the Afghan Taliban not the Pakistani Taliban. There may be a dangerous finger on the trigger but it is unlikely to be Mullah Omar's.
Sadly, it's this kind of lazy, ill-informed alarmist writing that results in idiotic assertions that the Taleban are 60 miles from Islamabad or that Iraq could strike the UK within '45-minutes'
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_Dossier).
Posner clearly understands little about the power structures in Pakistan, its military institutions or indeed the rank inability of Jihadit organisations to govern. Sure, they can scare and terrorise local populations, but running a nation is something else...and they are by no means rivals to even Pakistan's corrupt institutions.
Next time try a little fact and evidence Mr. Posner - two concepts which may have helped us avoid the Iraq war.
In Afghanistan the US is using a similar tactic of appeasement by paying off fundamentalist tribal leaders which gives a false impression of peace in small villages. A house of cards not unlike that in Pakistan, could come tumbling down at the slightest tremor. Sounds like a scenario for a political action movie. Except it is our precarious reality. Keep us informed, Gerald.
THE INCIDENTS OF JUSTIFICATION
History of Incidents of Justification
(REMEMBER THE MAINE) The Battleship (USS) United States Ship, Maine was used as the incident cause to justify the Spanish American War, as it exploded in Havana Harbour Cuba, the explosion was due to Coal Bunker Fumes igniting due to the heat sinking the ship, Nazis Germany took prisons dressed them in Polish Military Uniforms shot them staged a fire fight around a German Radio Station boarding Poland to stage the Incident of provocative justification for a military response, (FDR) Franklin Delano Roosevelt, knew in advance of the attack upon Pearl Harbour, expecting only minor to moderate damage, using the incident to justify entering the war in progress, the Gulf of Tomkins incident that never happened North Vietnamese Gun Boat attacking a United States Naval Warship Incident to justify the bombing of North Vietnam, and (911) the incident to justify starting of the Grand Game II.
(You think the stock market looks bad over the last two years? Let a Taliban spokesman announce that Mullah Omar has his ginger on the Islamic Bomb.As insurgents close in on Islamabad, The Daily Beast's Gerald Posner reports that Taliban forces are on the verge of seizing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal-which has the capability to hit India, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.)
THE (USSR) & (USA)
The Union of Socialist Soviet Republics and The United State of America no longer exist, the (USSR), began its decline and fall long before the fall of the Berlin War, which was more like the crumbling infrastructure of the (AIE) American Israel Empire, which has replaced the United States of America. The Russian Federation has replaced the (USSR), and is enjoying the benefits of a Geo-political, economic, nature resource, energy, and location boom in which only growth and prosperity for its nation and people lay in sight. Were as the (AIE), in contract has wasted its potential, resources, and neglected it infrastructure, on wars of expansion. The new Empire is made up of its court, the (544) generation after generation, one family member after another replacing individual members of the family units, elected from (Gerrymandered) districts, an elected district set up for and maintained to ensure their continued position in office, with tactics of intimidation, bribery, and vote rigging, without term limits, without age limits some in office at age (100) One-hundred, no limits do to physical impairments, and oversight of themselves geared for and working only in its own and lobbyist interests, using whatever means is available to cover up those interests. At the top of the food chain is an Imperial Media Messiah President, selected by those in power and sold by a controlled Western Media, presenting one face of government to the domestic audience and yet another for international consumption, with Impeachment off the table.
INCLUSIVE NOT EXCLUSIVE
The Incident to Justification and the change of government are not exclusive of each other but inclusive, co-dependent upon each other. Was the Empire totally and completely responsible for (911), only history (may) be able to provide the true answer to that question, what we do know it was used as an incident to justify, the beginning of the Grand Game II, and under the (AIE) National Security Strategy doctrine, the (AIE) has the right to use FORCE, against anyone who it ultimately thinks is going to be a threat to it to preserve access to (RESOURCES AND MARKETS), and the those resources and markets are the Islamic Crescent, the ;
(1) The Nabucco gas pipeline: which is to be laid through the territories of the Former Soviet Republic of (Georgia), into, Azerbaijan into the strategic Northwest Iranian territory or Shi-ite Persian Iran were currently (4) four- million Kurds are concentrated in Iran, waiting to declare a Kurdish state, and with Russian peacekeepers in place to protect the new formed Kurdish state from Georgian or Iranian aggression, onto Turkey and the Tabriz refinery, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria to connect Europe.
(2) The Central Asian Pipeline: from Turkmenistan which is rich in hydrocarbons and the building of the "Central Asian Pipeline" system transporting (NG) across Afghanistan to the ports of Pakistan, Karachi, and round the globe in (LG) Liquid Gas from, to waiting markets, with a branch line to supply the needs of India.
(3) The Caspian Sea Basin: to supply the Nabucco Pipeline with it's estimated at (7.25 Trn.Cu.Mts.) Seven-two-five trillion cubic meters, yet to be developed underneath the Caspian Sea, along with (1/5th) One-fifth, (20%) Twenty-Percent of the remaining global oil reserves.
IN CLOSING
Do not lose sight of the forest do to the tree, the incident for justification has to be moved beyond, it will fall to eyes of history to unravel, open your view to the forest beyond the tree, look beyond the incident to see what it was created to achieve. This is the (21st) Twenty-first Century, the dynamics of international relationships have changed the presence of a globally expansive Empire based upon a small group of individuals using tactics of intimidation, bribery, working only in its own and lobbyist interests, using whatever means is available to cover up those interests, threaten or using military force, based upon incidents of justification, against anyone who it ultimately thinks is going to be a threat to it to preserve access to (RESOURCES AND MARKETS) has no place in the (21st) Twenty-first century, and now it is up to the international community too take the steps necessary to end the threat that the Empire poses to the Global Community, or by simply believing pre-planted King David H. (Betray Us ) Petraeus, the Butcher of Islam, pre-packaged, prepare the battle field propaganda, in the Grand Game II, who knows maybe the Empire will make the nightmares come true, the prophecies of (2012) may come to fruition.
I have a prophesy:
Obama is the second coming of Christ. So just chill the f*ck out.
He's got it covered.
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This is a partial post from my blog, The Political and Financial Markets Commentator. I have to agree that we are in some deep brown water and our "leaders" are useless around the world.
...Pakistan, the Taliban and Islamabad: Is Anyone Out There?
Beating a Dead Horse
If I am getting tired of talking about the same thing, then people must be getting tired about reading about the same thing. This situation was once a dangerous thought, then a dangerous development, and now it is seemingly an extremely dangerous reality.
Slowly but surely, as discussed in this blog ad infinitum, the Taliban is moving towards Islamabad and a de facto takeover of the government of Pakistan. Much like Hitler was appeased by France, the UK and the Soviet Union in the 1930's when he was allowed to take Czechoslovakia, the Taliban has been appeased but does not seem satisfied by what they were given either...
Mike Haltman
The Political and Financial Markets Commentator
http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com/2009/04/pakistan-taliban-and-isl amabad-is.html
Thank you.
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