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Obama's Pakistan Nightmare
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Naveed Ali / AP Photo
The Taliban's slow-motion march to the Pakistani capital is creating an unappetizing menu of options for the Obama administration—one of several foreign-policy crises seemingly destined to get worse fast.
Pakistan’s Swat Valley is best known as a lush, gorgeous resort, about as close to Pakistan’s capital Islamabad as East Hampton is to New York. Only now the Swat Valley has been overrun by crazed, bearded Taliban intent on turning one of the most beautiful corners of the world into a medieval hell. To understand the psychological impact on Pakistan’s whiskey-loving elite, consider what might happen if survivalist guerrillas had wrested control of Long Island’s most beautiful beaches from the federal government and started beheading any soldiers and civilians who dared get in their way. Yet Pakistan’s military has essentially ceded the Swat Valley to the Taliban, and the militants have continued to press forward, inching closer to Pakistan’s biggest cities. Keep that in mind as Asif Ali Zardari, the president of Pakistan, meets with President Barack Obama this week in Washington.
The danger for President Obama is that his presidency is, after a few short months, entering its LBJ phase. Faced with a mounting economic crisis at home, there is a real possibility that the Talibanization of Pakistan will force him to deploy U.S. forces amid a population that, to put it mildly, wouldn’t greet their arrival with flowers and chocolates.
Zardari is best known in Pakistan as a slick charmer, who has reportedly amassed billions of dollars through outright theft. But as the widower of former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto, assassinated last year just before making a spectacular political comeback, he has been thrust into the unenviable position of standing between Pakistan and total chaos. So far, total chaos is winning. It should go without saying that it is Pakistanis who are suffering the most, particularly for women who’ve fallen under the nightmarish rule of the Taliban, but the Obama administration is looking on with dread as the collapse of Pakistan—which had until recently been happening in slow-motion—accelerates on their watch, threatening to further inflame Afghanistan and, by the way, unleash the nuclear genie in a region full of apocalyptic zealots.
As David Sanger has recently reported, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is still under lock and key. But the Pakistanis have been unwilling to tell the United States exactly where its weapons are located, for the excellent reason that any sane American leader would seriously consider using the information to preemptively capture or destroy said weapons. We can rest assured that somewhere in the Pentagon there is a contingency plan for doing exactly that, but don’t tell the Pakistani military—even now, its leaders seem convinced that the Taliban militants who are lopping the heads off of their men are less of a threat than scheming American generals. Then there is the small matter of India, which Pakistanis see as the Cain to its Abel. The stated reason why Pakistan hasn’t unleashed the full force of its formidable military on the Taliban is that they don’t want to leave their border with India lightly defended.
The Pakistanis disagree with the Obama White House at a very basic level. Because the Taliban forces enjoy considerable support from Pakistan’s Pashtun minority (which amounts to 15 percent of the total population), dislodging them militarily isn’t a matter of booting out an invading army—rather, it’s about waging war on the kind of wild-eyed crazies Pakistan has cultivated for decades. Pakistan’s military is shrewd enough to know that the Americans expect a show of force, but there is only so much they can—or will—do.
If Pakistan really does fall apart, the United States will have to turn to Plan B. One scenario is that the U.S. could abandon Islamabad in favor of separatists in Baluchistan, a large province that borders Iran and Afghanistan and that has a large Chinese-built port at Gwadar—thus offering a route into southern Afghanistan. Of course, any talk of an American plot to dismember Afghanistan doesn’t really warm the cockles of Pakistani hearts.
The danger for President Obama is that his presidency is, after a few short months, entering its LBJ phase. Faced with a mounting economic crisis at home, there is a real possibility that the Talibanization of Pakistan will force him to deploy U.S. forces amid a population that, to put it mildly, wouldn’t greet their arrival with flowers and chocolates. Obama’s commitment to his domestic reform agenda would be sorely tested by a shooting war in Pakistan, not least because the antiwar left would—very understandably—be in open revolt.
John Talks Joe
Lloyd Grove is editor at large for The Daily Beast. He is also a frequent contributor to New York magazine and was a contributing editor for Condé Nast Portfolio. He wrote a gossip column for the New York Daily News from 2003 to 2006. Prior to that, he wrote the Reliable Source column for the Washington Post, where he spent 23 years covering politics, the media, and other subjects.
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This is scary stuff. I was in favor of the invasion of Afghanistan and aghast when Bush/Cheney/ Rumsfeld abandoned it for the folly in Iraq. My greatest fears are being realized - that in not finishing off the Taliban and truly rebuilding Afghanistan (a much cheaper task than the invasion of Iraq has proved to be) we have left ourselves open to the worst of all worlds - failure in two wars and no means to right either one. Yikes.
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Yes. Bush's idiotic / criminal invasion of Iraq has allowed this to happen, so like the rest of the messes Obama has to clean up this is yet just another....
I hear Bush received 100 Million for his Library, maybe we should sieze that money and use to to help rid Pakistan and Afganistan of the Taliban and pay for a criminal court to try all the thugs who got us in this position.
The real question is why Hillary Clinton's State Department is focusing its mighty wrath upon the government of Sri Lanka which is succeeding in putting an end to the nightmare of mass-hostage taking (by the LTTE), all the while wondering what is going wrong in Pakistan. Tunnel vision is never good foreign policy.
Iraq is a far more important country than Afghanistan because of its location. Check out the atlas. Saddam Hussein -- remember him? -- was insane and his son and heirs were worse. Bad as things are in the Middle East, they'd be infinitely worse if he still ruled. Iraq would have nuclear weapons by now, courtesy of Pakistan or North Korea. So would Iran. The left doesn't know history or, if it does, doesn't think there is anything to be learned from it. Wipe your chins and bring it on, Obamatards.
banjo1.
Please bless us with your "History" lesson as to HOW IRAQ has been an added plus since invasion?
I suggest you join the Army and go fight 1st hand to make sure we are safe. Iraq is a debacle on any count, 4,000 dead Americans, 1000,000 dead Iraqi's (we kill them to free them??) 5 BILLION a month and Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to fall down the rabbit hole. Thanks to Cheney, Rumsfeld, Richard Pearl and all the other cowardly NEO Cons who foamed @ the mouth after 911, READ 911 gives us Cart Blanch to Invade. The American public knows it was duped...
There are lot of countries far worse than Sadam, I.E. China (it has killed far more of its citizens than Iraq has) Russia, Pakistan, North Korea...Do we invade them next? If so please join to show your Patriotism...
Banjo boy, squealing like a pig. Clearly, you are stupid. Obviously, you are a coward. At least you''ve got a purty mouth...
Obama is spending his resources to `punish' for so called `torture' committed by CIA officials. His first priority for safety of us is to find those nuclear bombs in Pakistan and neutralize them.
Banjo continues in his clueless, unilateral Rambo mode now that he has solved the Iraq problem and is about to take on the next challenge. This is the same, clueless thinking that we had for the past 8 years that resulted in the mess we are in. Instead of going back to hide in his shack in Kentucky on Georgia, he is out again talking trash!
Does anyone else think it's kind of funny that the article is titled "Obama's Pakistan Nightmare" right below a big portrait, almost mug shot-esque, of Mr. Salam? I mean, he could be mistaken for a Pakistani. Mr. Salam, are you a threat to this nations national security?
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Mr. Salaam is not your type, eh, Sidelines? Pakistan is a festering dung heap, sir. Your anti-Indian perspective is clouding your judgement.
I agree that Mr. Salaam is being overly alarmist, but his basic point is valid. The Pakistani military is on the verge of stepping in once again, further degrading any chance for the flowering of civil society in that perilously backward, nearly failed, state. But, what is the alternative when the only choice for the electorate is between the arch criminal Zardari and the utterly corrupt Sharif? Much of this is America's fault, the failure of our Afganistan policy since Carter is obvious to all observers.
Sidelines: India is a country with a multitude of problems but the Pakistani inferiority complex has been justly earned. Pakistan is a festering dung heap.
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Yet another article dedicated to obama-bashing and fear mongering masked with the wholesome glow of intellectualism and concern. "Rolling black-outs??" give me a break Reihan.
However, I will say that I think it is a mistake that we're putting so much effort into Pakistan. We have so many problems at home and we are still trying to solve the problems of the the totally screwed- up and chaotic middle east? I know it's complex, but seriously, wasn't our primary interest in pakistan capturing Osama Bin Laden? Why are we all of the sudden launching a crusade of freedom there?
Yes, it sucks what is going on there and at other points all over the world, but don't we have enough problems at home right now??
Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Any group that takes control of the country will eventually get control of the nukes. And they will necessarily be people willing to use wreak atomic havoc anywhere they can. This means Pakistan is singularly, life-threateningly important. More important than lost jobs or the end of credit card over-consumption gone awry. If Pakistan and its nukes go, none of the rest of it will matter.
nexpugnable0199 says, "At least you''ve got a purty mouth..." Can someone explain why homosexual rape figures so frequently in comments here? I know a lot of gays post on Daily Beast, but are they prison inmates now or at sometime in the past? Any clarification would be gratefully received.
Banjo, you tool, they write this stuff to you because you are constantly making ridiculous, homophobic comments in your posts. Their comments are the cheese and you are the fish.
Gosh, you really mixed the nightmare scenario up by deviating from your opening gambit. Mexico and Iran!? I thought Pakistan was your theme here. Let's just concentrate on Pakistan which seems to be the biggest bud blooming bloody on the horizon. If the US, indeed the president, decided to effect either Plan A or B to "save" Pakistan from Talibanization, it would be a gross error. The US can't go on "saving" any nation. Especially if its based on ploiticized intelligence. We shouldn't be in the savior business. Haven't we learned any lessons from out invasion strategums?! We no longer have the resources militarily or financially. Besides, Pakistan promises to be more than Iraq and Afghanistan put together in terms of providing defensive, or creating offensive, actions. The world's powers would have to collectively join in to preemptorily manage any future fray. America can't afford to go this one alone.
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Reihan Salam is acutually not an Indian Muslim. If you must know, he is an American of Bangladeshi origin. I agree that perhaps he is alarmist but maybe he is raising a needed alarm...What I find disturbing is your need to personally bash (ugly??) someone who is making an argument you don't agree with. Salam is not Rush Limbaugh or Ann Coulter...
Heard of this plan of breaking up Pakistan and greater Baluchistan nearly 20 years ago. Question why is that where ever U.S. goes weither in Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakistan it creates bloodshed and mayhem, Back to the greater Baluchistan theory, it is all about OIL , again a pipe line from Afganistan to the port of Gwader, this has been the U.S. plan for over 20 years. and now it may be coming to fruitation otherwise why else are we in Afghanistan ?
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