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Idol's Red-State Resurgence
Evans Vestal Ward / AP Images for Fox
Kris Allen's Idol win last night was also a Red State/Blue State proxy war. Exclusive polling data on why change didn't win.
On the American Idol stage in Los Angeles last night, the show’s season finale was ostensibly nothing more than two talented and likeable guys singing amidst a made-for-television pop-culture circus. Around the country, however, almost 100 million votes were cast in what coincidentally morphed into a cultural proxy war.
In the Red State corner, underdog Kris Allen: a former church missionary, married-at-23 Arkansas country rocker who sang his duet on the show with Keith Urban, wearing scuffed blue jeans. In the Blue State corner, favorite Adam Lambert: an ambiguously sexual, theater-loving California glam rocker, who sang his duet on the show with KISS, wearing winged leather armor. Fair or not, American Idol last night offered a democratic snapshot of the country’s cultural attitude five months into the age of Obama.
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And a funny thing happened on the way to a Lambert coronation. The dimpled one with the pretty blond wife and mellifluous voice beat the provocative one with the scary talent and Rocky Horror pipes, prompting a predictable cascade of headlines expressing anger, outrage, shock.
No one was more shocked than I was. I had spent the day crunching a proprietary set of Daily Beast data that didn’t just portent a Lambert victory, but rather a blowout. Our source for the raw numbers, VoteFair.org, has established a strong predictive record when it comes to American Idol. Rather than just have people mark off their weekly favorite, the site requires respondents to rank all candidates, top-to-bottom, which results in richer data, and it blocks people from voting more than once, undermining any Chicago ward-style ballot stuffing. VoteFair logged almost 3,000 votes leading up to last night, more than statistically significant, and had Lambert crushing Allen, 60.2% to 39.8%—a forecast we published shortly before the show aired.
So what happened? The first theory to creep up last night was that Lambert lost because he’s possibly/putatively/probably gay. The New York Times devoted an entire article last month to the question of whether an openly gay person can win American Idol. But the idea of a gay Wilder Effect—named for the black Virginia governor who consistently underperformed his poll numbers—seems doubtful. As with almost every Idol survey, VoteFair crunches its numbers electronically—that means no need to impress the interviewer.
A better argument can be made that we had a moment—when 100 million people vote for something, it’s bigger than a singing contest—that harkens to back to Nixon’s Silent Majority speech 40 years ago. “There’s a certain restiveness in Americans in times of uncertainty,” top Democratic pollster Doug Schoen told me minutes after the Allen vote. “People may well make decisions that aren’t obvious and clear. They’re opting for a choice they think is safe, less risky.” In other words, with the economy roiling, the role of government shifting, the banking and auto industries in freefall, the definition of marriage in flux and a health-care overhaul on deck, many feel good dialing and texting on behalf of an aw-shucks strummer from Conway, Arkansas. Bob Dylan and The Jefferson Airplane made headlines in the '60s, but Pat Boone and Henry Mancini sold more records.
Nixon’s theory—that minority groups seem larger because they’re more vocal—could help explain the discrepancy between the poll and official results. VoteFair’s respondents opt-in to the survey, a process that requires self-selected dedication, versus an easy phone call while caught up in the moment. While predictive with a larger group of choices (when a small group of devoted backers can advance you), the mile-deep zeal among the self-described “Glambert” groupies couldn’t match a shallower but mile-wide fan base when going head-to-head.
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this is more correlating than i have seen in a quite a spell. Man you are trying too hard. Holy cow this is nuts..
The ONLY reason Kris won is because of the 38 million votes cast by the State of Arkansas. This means that ONE state represented almost 38% of the total votes for BOTH contestants. This number is so scewed it's ridiculous when you consider the rest of the country and the 36 million population of California. Arkansas only has 2.8 million people in the entire state!
The week prior there were 88 million votes cast and Kris beat Danny when it was clear that Danny was favored in the finale. How did Kris Allen pull this off and where did the additional 21 million votes come from the following week? Here's how it happened...
First off there were hundreds of pre-paid AT&T cell phones given out by organized Kris Allen supporters with West Coast area codes to vote long after the lines were closed in their time zone. They also were able to text hundeds of times faster than it takes you or I to dial in, and you can ONLY text if you have an AT&T cell phone. It's actually possible to text your vote approximately 40 times within one minute using one of the new "smart phones" which equals about 2,400 votes within an hour. I tried this experiment myself with a borrowed phone today and could do it myself. Multiply that by the extra 2 hours for the cheating phones and you get over 14,000 votes by one individual provided they keep at it non stop the entire time, and believe me there are plenty of tweenagers and college students who can do this.
Once the voting officially ended in Arkansas they switched to the phones with the west coast area codes for the remaining 2 hours. AT&T is a sponsor of American Idol. Who do you think made money on all those pre paid phones? I have a AT&T land line and I was able to vote for Adam about 25 times within 4 hours because of constant busy signals. Meanwhile someone in Arkansas had voted over 500 times that amount using power texting. You only need about 1,500 people to accomplish the amount of power text votes Kris received in addition to those around the rest of the country and the state of Arkansas who voted for him by phoning in their vote. If you remove the organizers from the equation and the number is the more realistic 60% - 40% margin that was originally predicted in Adam's favor.
How do I know all this you ask? I have a friend who attends the University of Central Arkansas where Kris goes to school and they told me about this organized group. Most of them are his fellow college students. The information is on the internet as well, you just have to look for it. This method was ALSO used the previous week, and that's how Kris beat Danny Gokey. If you're wondering how they managed to purchase all these "cheating" phones they held "Kris Allen MUST WIN" fund raisers weeks ago when it looked like he wasn't going to make it and fell into the bottom 3 on April 29th. It didn't take them long to raise thousands of dollars to purchase these phones (most likely from California) which is ironic considering it's Adam's home state.
Second, on the http://www.krisallenation.com/search/label/Gizmo website people were instructed and coached on how to use a computer program called Gizmo that would extend their voting time from 4 hours to 7 hours. This program is also able to cast up to 25 votes at once and can be used by people OUTSIDE the United States who are normally not allowed to vote. Some people were claiming on various Kris Allen blogs that they voted as many as 16,000 times within 7 hours using the power text and Gizmo method along with the west coast area code phones, and many people overseas are claiming they were able to vote using Gizmo as well. Go to the above website and see for yourself.
This was a very organized group of people who clearly cheated in order for Kris to win by being able to vote past the allotted 4 hour time frame, and I think it's a shame that the most talented performer in American Idol history came in 2nd place. Simon Cowell was right in not standing up when it was announced that Kris won. I wouldn't have stood up either.
However, I believe in Karma, and although this is clearly not Kris' fault I think that the "cheaters" may have done Adam a favor by not locking him into the customary multi year American Idol recording contract that would limit his creative control over the production. Kris may very well go the way of Taylor Hicks and be limited to playing State Fairs and Road Houses in the future or he may do very well. Only time will tell, but I truely believe that Adam will go on to World Wide Superstardom because his fanbase is THAT Huge! Personally I think comparing Kris to Adam is like comparing Pat Boone to Elvis and most of the people I've talked to agree.
In response to reports about the 38 million vote count being false, it was actually reported by several different news sources. The latest blog rumor is that the information was leaked by an AT&T employee who supported Adam Lambert and was disgusted at the obvious "cheating" and felt the need to disclose how many votes came from Arkansas. You must remember that AT&T is American Idol's Number ONE sponsor and they do not want to come off with egg on their face for the obvious reason that the company makes millions of dollars from all the text messaging and phone calls made after the telecast. Ryan Seacrest says at the end of each show, "Standard text messaging rates apply." AT&T is based out of Dallas Texas, which is only 342 miles from Conway Arkansas and it would make sense that would support Kris Allen. There have been reports of AT&T supplying Conway with free cell phones and instructing users on how to "Power Text" so there may be some truth to that as well.
In any case, AT&T didn't move to have the media retract the story about the 38 million votes until several hours after the fact, when obviously "outraged" Adam Lambert supporters responded to the theory that there was cheating involved. The company says it doesn't reveal how many votes came from each state and for good reason. Can you imagine if they actually did disclose that information going back to AI season one? It stands to reason that they would lose millions of dollars in revenue if the AI ratings collapsed from under them if it was somehow found out that "certain" American Idol winners had a little "help". Corporate America is typically ultra conservative and that's exactly what Kris Allen is. He's the boy next door and even looks a little like Joey from "Friends" Adam is outgoing, flashy, flamboyant, and certainly not you're typical entertainer, but his pure raw talent is way beyond what Kris could ever hope to achieve. Kris even said at the end of the show that "Adam deserves this" and was even embarrassed by the fact that he won.
Adam is making waves and is literally kicking down the musical door so to speak, much like Elvis did in the 50's. He's also very polarizing, either you love him or you hate him with no inbetween. Kris is the guy who you'd invite over for a Sunday afternoon Barbeque after church. In any case it all boils down to AT&T's bottom line and who "they" think is a marketable recording artist, and sometimes they drop the ball. All you have to do is look where Taylor Hicks is today. I wish Kris the greatest success in the future and I hope he can step up to the plate given the fact what his friends at the University of Central Arkansas and AT&T have done for him.
As for Adam... I will be the first in line to buy his first album.
I wanted Kris to win simply because Adam will be better off with a different contract. The American Idol contract is good for Kris. I mean, Carrie Underwood was screwed when she was under the Idol contract. Idol doesn't cut the profit of album sales very well. But it's still a contract....which Kris deserved. Adam will be fine without it. My friends who watch the show agreed with me on this. Plus, I always tend to vote for the underdog. I mean, with Adam in the running, the competition just isn't fair (lol). Kris is so damn cute.
I totally agree. Part of me wonders if these things aren't faked now anyway. How many runner ups go on to have outstanding careers that overshadow the winners? Jennifer Hudson anyone?
Jennifer Hudson lost early though because she had a very unlikeable personality while on the show. Take a look at Taylor Hicks who many found likeable, lol, and see what happened there.
i have my finger crossed that adam had the chance to decline the contract and win. judging from the dusty and preposterous rock museum numbers they put him in with kiss and queen, he'd have no chance to persue original forward-thinking ideas.
Did Acorn not pay its phone bill or what?
The right guy won.
Funny column, sometimes Adam's screeching was just too much. A softer, middle of the road guy won over Middle America. Big surprise!
And today, making a HUGE social and political statement, lots of Americans will eat at MacDonald's.
Seriously? American Idol voting is now based on politics and ideology? Please. I'm a left leaning moderate and I voted for Kris because, get this, I liked his singing more. I could not care less about sexual orientations or any other nonsense like that. Adam is a great talent too, and I will probably buy his first album too. In fact, Adam could have just as easily won in my opinion.
Dude it is so much simpler than your grand theory. Up until last week Danny was in the competition with a huge number of voters supporting him. Danny is also a very committed Xtian with a vocal style almost identical to Kris and light years away from Adam. The people who voted for Danny are big fans of the show and would surely vote in the final even though their favorite was dropped the week before. Common sense tells you that almost all the Danny fans would find Kris more to their liking. In a three way race Adam would have come out on top (See 1992 Clinton/Bush/Perot). But in a head to head the white bread with mayo nature of the show's fans came out big.
Amen to this. I voted for Kris last night after being loyal to Danny since the beginning of the season. I switched to Kris when Danny was kicked off. Of course those people (like me) would switch to Kris. Common sense people. Common sense.
Adam may be talented, but he tended to scream when he went high & that alone was obnoxious to never vote for him. He belongs on Broadway.
I never voted for Danny. The dude's wife passed away approximately a month before the show, yet he seemed to be "totally cool with it" by his attitude and demeanor. I found that odd and disconcerting.
My son is 14. And yes, he was rooting for Kris. Among his reasons for doing so were (1) Adam is so gay; and (2) Kris's music is better.
However, to my son, gay has very little to do with sexual orientation. "Gay" is not Ellen Degeneris--who he finds utterly normal. Gay is weird. Gay is flamboyant mascara and men in high heels. If Kris happened to like men, and Adam liked women, it would have still been the flamboyant Adam who was gay.
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ha ha! good one!
Well-stated Agatha
Sounds like someone's been smoking Blue State Weed.
Nixon?
You're kidding, right?
I heard Adam Lambert's Red State fans
were channeling George McGovern.
Maybe Kris Allen got the Larry Craig demographic?
What planet are you from?
Seriously, you're either pulling our leg,
or a total wack job to make
such a desperate connection.
Or perhaps you were forced to fill
this space with outrageous nonsense.
If we're the Roman Empire, you might be
in the running for Emperor.
I cannot believe this correlation! Is there nothing in America that doesn't have a political undertone. For God's sake, let it rest. I didn't vote for either of them; didn't care one way or the other. However, if I had voted, I would have voted for Kris -- Adam will get a recording contract no matter what. Although he tends to be a little squealy (not a word) at times, he a rocker through and through. Kris needs the marketing of an American Idol. By the way, I prefer Kris' singing although I was truly upset at how he murdered my sweetheart Marvin Gayes' What's Going On. There's no improving on that classic.
This comment has been removed by The Daily Beast's editors.
Ha--good one.
Never underestimate the power of 10 year old girls with unlimited texting.
Idiots one and all
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Bit of a stretch, I would say. Red State-Blue State? Give me a break.
What you didn't take into account is that the winner of American Idol has to appeal to the 14 year old girl who will text vote for hours. Kris fits that bill exactly with his boyish good looks and cutie-pie smile.
I wanted Adam to win, but I'm in my 40's and am not willing to sit for 4 hours and text votes. Plus, he will do fine on his own. Kris needs Idol's help because he is mediocre, at best.
I thought this article was a joke - I guess not. I didn't notice but maybe they stood on the Left and Right too. Maybe somebody should look into that...
... My wife voted for Allen because she liked his singing and he didn't need to scream or stick his tounge out like Gene Simmons.
My son voted for Allen because his appears to be an accomplished musician as well as a good singer.
Red State / Blue State -- affecting American Idol? I don't understand the need for mass psycho-analysis, or some of the conclusions. It all seems to be quite a stretch.
I also think a lot of people who favored Adam were torn about whether or not it was in his best interest to win Idol. Idol's track record isn't that great with winners, and they have to sing that God aweful ballad. I think true artists, like Adam, are better off NOT being under Idol's thumb so they can get a great contract and create good music.
You got that right....look at Jennifer Hudson, Clay Aiken & Daughtry. They've done much better without winning the title. Kris will make ALOT of money for Idol...he's perfect for the kids and the easy-listening crowd...and Idol just wants whatever will sell more records. Although I think it was clear that Adam has more talent overall, it was very fortunate for him to come in second and he'll do VERY well for himself right out of the gate.
Thank you.
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