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An Absurd Outcome
For the Obama administration, the developments of the past week in Iran represent perhaps the worst possible outcome. The U.S. administration’s strategy of engagement was never predicated on the personality of the Iranian president, who after all is not even the country’s final authority. But a win for the reformists would have added real energy to the effort, both within Iran and here at home, in the excitement over shifting ideological tides in Tehran and the inclusion of Iranian leaders who were both capable of and prepared to countenance serious negotiations. A plausible Ahmadinejad victory, while unwelcome, would at least have offered Washington the prospect of dealing with a consolidated conservative government that might have felt confident enough to pursue a historic shift in its relationship with an old adversary.
Instead, Washington now faces a newly fractured Iranian polity ruled by a leadership that is willing to jettison its own institutions and legitimacy in its determination to retain absolute control. That does not bode well for Iran’s capacity to undertake serious talks and eventually engage in historic concessions on its nuclear program and support for terrorism. Obama has to be prepared to move forward with diplomacy despite the wholesale setback for Iran’s limited democracy. In the wake of this disastrous election, opportunities for progress on engagement may unexpectedly present themselves. But he should do so in full awareness of the farce that has been perpetrated with this Ahmadinejad “landslide” and of the seething frustration of so many Iranians.
Suzanne Maloney is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
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Lloyd Grove is editor at large for The Daily Beast. He is also a frequent contributor to New York magazine and was a contributing editor for Condé Nast Portfolio. He wrote a gossip column for the New York Daily News from 2003 to 2006. Prior to that, he wrote the Reliable Source column for the Washington Post, where he spent 23 years covering politics, the media, and other subjects.
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Jeff Madrick is a contributor to the New York Review of Books and a former economics columnist for the New York Times. He is editor of Challenge Magazine, visiting professor of humanities at Cooper Union, and senior fellow at the New School's Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. He is the author of Taking America, The End of Affluence (Random House) and The Case for Big Government.
Obviously the "establishment" in Iran did not want the running narrative around the world to be that Obama had any effect on their populace so they rigged the election results to counter that perception. But time will tell if the so called Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad, etc., can quell the growing unrest within their own country as easily, especially amongst younger Iranians.
You can only keep growing pressure contained for so long. History has shown us that, time and time again. With more then 60 percent of it's population under 30, and with the power of the digital age... change is coming.
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"help themselves" through armed insurrection?
...well it would have been nice to see some people in America concerned enough about Democracy to take to the streets and cry foul.
...Imagine if you can no BushCo for the eight "lost years".
...At least Al Gore had the stones to take it all the way to the SCOTUS (ask Sandra Day O'connor how she likes that glimmering example of jurisprudence)
...John Kerry out right won and walked away! (Ohio...thanks Ken Blackwell)
Actually, Bush sued under the Equal Protection Clause. Gore did not bring suit. Not that it makes much of a difference, Gore was winning in the Florida courts, so wouldn't have needed to bring suit.
It would be a tactical mistake
For the U.S. to appear to be trying
To influence the outcome of the elections.
It's not about stones or no stones.
A mistake because American support for Iranian reformists allows the hardliners to paint them as traitors to Iran. Much as I hate the idea, maybe it is time cry havok and loose Bibi on them. On the other hand, we brazenly subverted the vote here not too long ago with much less at stake. Could it be that democracy has devolved entirely into a propaganda term?
I agree about overtly trying to influence the election. How do you feel about Americans seeking ways to help freedom along with the people?
RitaRita
I'm a big fan
of yours
I expected Gore to dispute the election and fight. He was not willing to do so. He caved and gave us 8 years of Bush. The Republicans called it "gracious". I called it cowardly. If he had stood up, he would have had millions behind him.
One thing you have to give Republicans; they understand how to fight.
Go fuck yourself. We won in 2008.
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Wouldn't you consider this to be an internal matter? Iran IS a sovereign state, after all, no?
It's the job of pundits to call a spade a spade... they don't suffer political consequences in a way that politicians do. So, glad to hear/see world-wide support for the opposition in Iran.
There's nothing we can do now except wait, otherwise we'll make Musavi look like a US stoog, a new Shah.
If Iran faces some kind of human rights disaster with the regime putting down it's own people as a result of opposition to this election... well, we'll see how things play out.
The one thing that's for certain is that we have no place in this for now.
Leslie Gelb has a fairly sunny view of the potential outcome: Iran's hardline will moderate to keep peace in their nation while maintaining control. Nehru spoke of the velvet glove and iron fist, which could apply here. The iron fist steels the election, the velvet glove softens the blow with limited moderation of policies.
Totalitarians know that if you beat someone enough with a stick their gratitude when you stop exceeds and often effaces their desire for revenge.
Revolutionaries make excellent counter-revolutionaries when they come to power, i.e. the Whiskey Rebellion, Kronstadt, Tiananmen Square... ad nauseum
Mousavi will be arrested and executed. Ah's last opponent was arrested and denied his insulin. He went into a diabetic coma and died. It's bad for your health to run against Ah.
Um, Ahmadinejad's "last opponent" was Rafsanjani, who is alive and well and currently has a position in the Iranian government, and is very rich from all the money he siphoned off from the Iranian oil exports. (Are you asking yourself why Ahmadinejad beat his corruptness?)
why can't they be forced to prove it? i know they have no independent monitors and are ruled IK, but maybe in the name of calm, other middle eastern leaders could insist on them revelaing the actual votes?
Excellent article. I sense that the instability in Iran will last much longer than in 1999. We are in the age of the internet and I think we will be witnessing a much more coordinated and sustained opposition effort in Iran which could result in even more demonstrations, generalized strikes and other acts of sabotage against the Regime. Thuggery and iron fists are resorts of the weak and the desperate, and what we are witnessing are the final throes of a Regime. If it doesn't end this time around, it will be more seriously cracked than in any previous time, and with the maturing of this youth in the coming decade, it will fall for good.
The author of this piece is the employee of a right-wing think tank. Her making flat statements such as, " the election was stolen without even a pretense of plausibility." is certainly more a reflection of her political bias than any specific knowledge of the circumstances of the Iranian election. At this point all commentary on this issue is speculation without any hard facts; facts that may never be forthcomming.
Hear, Hear!
Regardless where this author gets her paycheck, or what sort of influences she has, she is decrying the election on a fact-free basis.
She is also, showing her deep ignorance, lumping in together the Khameini (revolutionary era) leaders with Ahmedinejad, who is definitely a sort of gnesio-fundamentalist.
If I were Iranian, it would be clear to me that a vote for Mousavi would be a vote for capitulation to the West, a sort of affirmation of their years of hypocrisy and mistreatment of my proud nation.
That doesn't mean that such nationalist pride isn't stupid, it just would be quite common. Happens in America, too, with the re-election of our own gnesio-fundamentalist President Bush.
One of the first calls Ahmadinejad received after his "landslide" win was Hugo Chavez. Birds of a feather folks. I truly feel sorry for the people of Iran (and Venezuela).
Does it not strike anyone else as peculiar that our government finds elections that don't go the way we want them to go to be 'questionable'? Gaza's election of Hamas comes to mind. But when the Lebanese elect a government that we 'like', we welcome the result. When we will admit that we really don't have a clue what goes on in the Middle East (except for Israel, perhaps).
Much is made of the Iranians' development of nuclear weapons. There are 4 nations in the world that are not signatories to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty: Indian, Pakistan, N Korea and Israel. Each one of them have nuclear weapons. We support the Indians and the Pakistanis, we have tried to deal with the N Koreans and our relationship with Israel is unquestioned. The relationship between Iran and Israel might be called 'strained' if I were a diplomat. The Israelis have struck Iran before, as well as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon when they felt threatened. So if you were an Iranian, would you not want something to deter the Israelis from doing that again?
Ms. Maloney,
You are so completely wrong in your asesment that one would wonder how much information you have at your institution.
You talk about the present government in Iran as if it is some kind of a real democracy ! Are you serious or are joking. I am not sure whether you are fooling yourself.
The fact is that after 30 years of the most propagndist regime in the world, only 25% of Iranians support this regime; half of which do it because of the financial gains and the rest for some very sick idealogy.
The regime in Iran is comprised of a bunch of bandits who have stolen the country from the true Iranian people. The 75% that oppose the regime, do not just politically oppose it. They hate the regime in its entirety. A notorious dream of the Iranian people is to hang the mullahs from the trees.
The young people dancing in the streets are not just playing around. They want to get rid of the criminals ruling their country. And whether you like it or not, THEY WILL ! It is only a matter of time. They don't really care what President Obama or any other western will say or do. They will do it by themselves.
You, apparently, don't know much about Iran or Iranian culture. Iran is a 2600 years old country. It has had lots of ups and downs. A lot of other powers have medled into its affairs. But the Iranian people have always blessed with a brave man or a woman who has got them out of the ditch.
You are not alone in not understanding the true nature of the Iranians. There are probably many others like you. But you will all be proven wrong. The Iranian people will get rid of the bandits ruling their country and will build a new democratic Iran that will bw the envy of the world.
You might say that the mullahs are very powerful. But so were a lot of other dictators in the world. And guess what ? They are all gone !!!!! The mullahs will be gone soon too. If you really like them, you may want to offer them shelter because they will be on the run !!!!
Thank you.
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