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Hillary's Tricky Iran Game
My guess is that the bosses will restore order, but make clear that they will make some of the changes demanded by the political opposition. They will have to throw some bones to the popular fervor. In particular, they’ll have to do something on the economy, where poverty abounds and inflation is well above 15 percent (depending how it’s calculated). But there isn’t much Tehran can do to improve these conditions without reconnecting with the West and especially the United States. Western economic sanctions have not brought the clerical house down, but they have severely reduced investment, credit, and trade. Which means the bosses in Tehran will have to unclench their fists and make some face-saving gestures back toward President Obama. Also, there’s no doubt that they understand that once they open the economic doors, the West will require that Iran’s nuclear program be placed on the bargaining table as well.
All this will be complicated and drawn-out, but it will occur now because it’s in the interests of both Tehran and Washington to work together—or at least not be outright enemies. Which explains as well the rather mild reaction to the mullahs' electoral thievery by the American administration.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not condemn. She implicitly cast aspersions on the results, but did nothing to close any doors to talks. She simply said that Washington wanted the elections to reflect “the will of the people.” And who could argue with that, except for right wingers bent on open confrontation, if not military action, against Iran? They want the negotiating doors locked and boarded up. Obama is treading carefully in a very different direction. Basically, the White House has decided that the United States potentially has much to gain and little to lose by going forward with talks. It is the only way to get Tehran’s help on Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other regional problems where Tehran also seeks stability and doesn’t want problems spilling into Iran itself. And talks are a far cheaper way of tackling Iran’s growing nuclear capability, compared to war. Obama has already strongly hinted at a move on this critical issue. In his now-famous Cairo speech, he talked of drawing the line at Iran continuing to develop nuclear weapons and not at its possessing a peaceful uranium-enrichment operation under strict international inspection.
It would have been much better for Iran and for the West if Mousavi had been allowed to win. Now, negotiations will be much slower and more tortuous, but likely will begin before 2010.
Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior government official, is author of Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy (HarperCollins 2009), a book that shows how to think about and use power in the 21st century. He is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
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Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior government official, is author of Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy (HarperCollins 2009), a book that shows how to think about and use power in the 21st century. He is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
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n--Y--misterdonUberjeff
Iran has been "a year away from developing nuclear weapons" for over a decade. It's a lie perpetrated by neo-cons as part of a fear-campaign that has managed to survive well beyond any reason.
I think the writer here has some good points, if not a bit optimistic. I say for now we can do nothing but observe. Any statements from the US condemning this fraud will only be seen as trying to meddle in their affairs. We have to let them work things out on their own as a sovereign nation.
Either way, Democracy has reared it's ugly head to the establishment. There's little that can be done now other than accept it without simply stoking the fires of another revolution.
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n--Y--misterdoninexpugnable0199
The Dems rolled over and sucked hind teat (Bush's nutsack, to be specific) in 2000. The mullahs will waste a few kids, a la Kent State or Tiananmen, and the protesters, most of whom are there to get laid, will go back to school or whatever. When the nukes are a fait accompli, then Iran can loosen up a bit.
Hawnzz
Misterdon,
I disagree that the administration has thrown Israel "under the bus". Israel has been standing in the middle of the street for decades. We have given Israel support even when we should not.
There should be NO settlements in the West Bank. Why? Would Israel allow Palestinian settlements in Israel? Aaaaah, no...
Plantagenet
By saying nothing about the stolen election, Obama is undermining the opposition and signaling to Ahmadenijad that the US doesn't care about democracy in Iran. The Mullahs now know they have a free hand to begin violent political repression against the opposition. The police beatings and arrests of opposition youth in Tehran will continue because Obama has shown he is too wimpy to even speak up to help the reformers in Iran.
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n--Y--misterdonHawnzz
Obama is a chess player. (A masterful one at that...) Iran is not just another typical dictatorship. The article is a good example of this. Obama has very limited real influence on the ground in Iran. Ahmadenijad will do exactly what he wants to/can get away with regardless of what Obama says.
This has nothing to do with Obama being wimpy.
S-von-K
Blah, blah, blah.........conditions have changed! We've always said to nip terror in the bud you need the hearts and minds of the young......Well??? Here it is! You have an Iran filled with betrayed youth that very much wants to be respected and recognized by the west......End of story......If they continue this revolution and show resolve, we help them........I'm an Obama supporter...and this IS 3 am! .......These kids have unclinched their fists, let's shake there hand IF they ask for help!
inexpugnable0199
We can send in troops, I suppose, which is what Bush wanted all along. Remember the 60's and the anti-globalization protests in the late 90's early 2000s, remember Tiananmen Square - youth protests don't mean shit to Totalitarians, especially when large portions of the population are hostile, apathetic, or distractable.
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n--Y--JoshyDHawnzz
More then 60 percent of the Iranian population is under 30 years old, change is coming regardless. In 20 years the generation in control will be them. They grew up in the digital age with the desire to be westernized. (to some extent)
S-von-K
Plantagenet,
Ever hear the line: "Measure twice, cut once"........rest assured Obama and staff are workin this right now as we are playing keyboard warrior..........He's thinking it through, as he should......
inexpugnable0199
Just hope Leslie Gelb is right and Obama, true to type, doesn't decide to go cowboy and send in troops or more likely slip the leash from Bibi Netanyahu. The Arabs hate Iran, but still.
squiggy
I hope he decides to do the right thing! That would throw the Shiite in Iraq for a loop! LOL Put Hezbollah and Hamas on notice and Syria on edge. I like it more and more!!!
xbainx
I enjoy American politics because Obama admitted after 50 years that we overthrew the leader of Iran, and the right-wingers went nuts.
I don't know what else to say besides that. There are two Americas. One is taking place in 2009... the other is broadcasting from 1950 on twitter.
P.S. I hope someone murders Glenn Beck. Grow some balls liberals. The other side loves to make death threats.
Hawnzz
Ouch...
leftygoleft
The world is ruled by the oil clique.
They fix elections in America and Iran and any country they want.
They use religion, or fear, or hate, or whatever to maintain their power and control.
We are all oil slaves and the oil masters puppet every aspect of modern life.
Only those that can produce their own energy are free from the oil tyranny. And even that is no guarantee that you won't be swept away in one of their oil wars.
Tango121
If that is true leftygoleft and the world is run by the oil clique, then BHO and the Dem.'s are in bed with them. By buying 70 percent of our oil from the middle east we prop them up and keep them in business. If we drilled for oil and gas here, the middle east would have to cut production to raise prices. They would not have money to fund the unrest they are spreading throughout the world. We on the other hand would keep our money in the USA.
penscott
It is certainly true that Obama and the Democrats are hurting the US and helping its enemies by refusing to allow access to the easily available oil offshore and in Alaska. It remains a mystery whether this is out of ideological blindness or whether they are all on the payroll of the oil cartels.
xbainx
Not true. Everything you typed was a lie.
blinky
According to T. Boone Pickens, if the USA was to drill in Alaska, drill in the lower 48, drill off shore to exploit every possible oil reserve have, it would amount to between one and one half a million barrels a day...The world currently uses eighty-eight million barrels a day...Since all the oil produced here goes on the international market, a fact the "drill now" advocates never mention, even if the US goes into full tilt production, folks here won't get much of a lower oil price, that's just how it is...As far as oil production goes in the 21st century, "keeping our money in the USA" is a fantasy.
hockeydog
Good point blinky!
Worth remembering, too, is the fact that the whole current economic situation had $4.00 per gallon of gas as the catalyst for the fall of the dominoes.
cbl99201
Thank you for the good article, Mr. Gelb.
redspruce
history as "street protests" repeats itself: "While British intelligence backed away from the debacle, the CIA continued its covert operations in Iran. Working with pro-Shah forces and, most importantly, the Iranian military, the CIA cajoled, threatened, and bribed its way into influence and helped to organize another coup attempt against Mossadeq. On August 19, 1953, the military, backed by street protests organized and financed by the CIA, overthrew Mossadeq. The Shah quickly returned to take power and, as thanks for the American help, signed over 40 percent of Iran's oil fields to U.S. companies."
With the help of CIA propagandists like Gelb in the Belly of the Beast
penscott
Yes, of course it's all a CIA plot. Iranians could not possibly want free and fair elections, a decent economy, freedom from the repressive governance of the crazy mullahs and corrupt Revolutionary Guard, peace with the west and their Arab neighbors.
Redhead5050
This is a very complex situation. I am so glad that Obama is in charge and not some trigger happy wanna-be cowboy. And to have the benefit of Hillary's skill and intellect working for us give me some bit of comfort. Thoughtful decision making is a hallmark of the Obama administration and it is required in any dealings with Iran.
melissamsouza
Excellent as usual and I agree completely. Yesterday there was an article in Haaretz newspaper, an Israeli liberal paper, that actually argued the opposite: A-jad will emerge stronger and bolder as a result of this election. I responded to the article using your logic--given the severe fissures in Iranian society exposed by this election and the degree and intensity of the protests, A-jad will be weakened, not strengthened. Already there is international questioning of his legitimacy--Joe Biden stated this morning that he doubts elections in Iran were free and fair. This is a President who presents himself to the world as illegitimate and a thug; a significant portion of his population and of Iranian leadership, no matter how many he puts in prison or under house arrest, are against him. It will be far easier now to isolate and pressure him. As you so well say, if he wants to survive without constant sabotage from within and without his government, he will have no alternative other than to engage with the West.
Boyaca
The USA should stay out of the elections in other countries until it fixes it's own election process. Bush Gore was a pretty good example of an illegal election. That would be a start if it wants to look at dodgy elections. The election og judges in the USA would be another area. The special interest groups in elections would be yet one more area. From where I sit the election process in the USA stinks pretty bad.
penscott
Yes, this was a good example of a corrupt court trying to rig an election. The
Florida Supreme Court blatantly tried to give the state to Gore, with a poorly disguised rigging of the recount by restricting it to Democratic counties.
The FL justices should be in jail.
Hawnzz
Whose brother was the Governor of that state? Hmm... things that make you go... Hmm...
featherdart
I love reading Leslie Gelb. I remember reading him in the Times Magazine in the 70s and 80s during the Iran Hostage Crisis, when I was in junior high. I wish his brand of lucid, statesmanlike, big-picture journalism was still popular at the mag...but love seeing him here. Great, levelheaded overview here today. Thanks!
Epic-Gilgamesh
Here, Here! If journalism isn't blatantly promoting ideology, it is so even-handed it ends up saying nothing at all. Gelb's style frames enough information and pragmatic opinion to allow the reader to feel like they are making a real assessment, whether its an agreeable one or not.
Josh-Narins
Too bad he distorts the facts and jumps to conclusions. He sure is a fine writer.
robjh1
A long time coming but a change will come. The US must sit tight and let it come naturally without our interference.
"and we are not saved..."
Josh-Narins
Leslie Gelb apparently knows jack diddly about the economic situation in Iran. Net exports are way up over a few years ago, and climbing, while imports are only modestly increasing. How about this one? Iran's "Real GDP Gross Fixed Capital Formation" is up over 60% since 2000.
Yet, Leslie Gelb, a supposed expert (he is a supremely confident prig when he talks, and surely that is impressive!) says "In particular, they'll have to do something on the economy[.]"
Other figures to embarass Mr. Gelb? Sure! The GDP of Iran is growing nearly monotonically.
How about this one, which should put to bed even the Mr. Gelb's most ardent admirers last bit of skepticism. Iran's published unemployment figures, which are quite delayed, report a high of 11% in June, 2006, and a most recent published rate of 10%.
I'm sure Mr. Gelb got paid a lot more to write his nonsense than I did to correct it.
CassandraSays
You Yanks are such sore losers!
After a network of American "advisors" failed to fix the referendum of Hugo Chavez, the loathsome oligarchs who were their pupils/employees wanted to go to phase 3 and riot in the streets claiming the elections were fixed.
Their dispirited handlers told them "You can't fart against thunder. 66% is just too much of a margin. We can't dispute it."
Then along came Obama to say "Yes, we can."
Change indeed.
Then along came
Thank you.
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