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Why Iran's Rulers Fear a Revote
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History and numbers explain the Iranian regime’s fear of a revote, says pollster Douglas Schoen, who has seen three similarly fraudulent elections abroad. Mousavi would crush Ahmadinejad in a rematch.
Plus, read more insight on Iran's election from other Daily Beast writers.
Sadly, the past week’s events in Iran are far from unique. I’ve been on the frontlines of more than a few foreign presidential elections involving voter fraud—Serbia, Venezuela, Ukraine—and the telltale signs of widespread abuse are eerily familiar, which I’ll break out below.
I’ve also been involved in one election, in Ukraine in 2004, where such massive abuses led to new balloting. Those results seem a pretty powerful precedent, especially given the similar energy and enthusiasm residing with the challenger’s camp. I think Mir Hossein Mousavi would win a revote in a landslide, as Viktor Yushchenko did in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution. After circumstances like what we have seen this week in Tehran, it is frequently very difficult, if not impossible for beleaguered incumbents to go back to the well more than once.
I think Mir Hossein Mousavi would win a revote in a landslide, as Viktor Yushchenko did in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution.
Even without the surge that comes when a campaign becomes a movement, Mousavi was already starting from a large base of voters. Let’s be clear: All of the evidence, statistical and otherwise, suggests very strongly to me that there was massive fraud in last Friday’s Iranian presidential election. Here’s why:
First and foremost, the widely circulated Washington Post poll of Iranian public opinion conducted between May 11 and May 20, which indicated a 2-to-1 lead for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad three weeks before the June 12 election, is most likely indicative of just the opposite. One can typically assume that any time an incumbent receives less than 50 percent—as Ahmadinejad did in this poll, with 34 percent of Iranians saying they planned to vote for him—the bulk of the undecided and undeclared voters are most likely opponents of the incumbent regime.
And indeed, in the case of this survey, 42 percent of the electorate refused to declare a choice. What’s more, the vast majority of those voters, at least 70 percent, indicated that they harbor reformist tendencies, rather than those that are subordinate to Ahmadinejad and his regime.
And with Mousavi’s election campaign surging in the three weeks after the widely disseminated poll was conducted, it almost is certain that the survey was indicative of real problems for Ahmadinejad, not a substantial margin of victory.
Other evidence suggests to me that real electoral fraud took place last week in Iran. First, the ballot count was too quick. It is simply impossible to count 39,165,191 ballots as quickly as they did. Additionally, the fact that results were released piecemeal, showing Ahmadinejad doing well in regions of the country where reformist candidates have previously carried support, indicates substantial irregularities within the ballot count.
I remember similar irregularities occurring in Serbia during the 1992 and 2000 presidential elections. In both cases, pre-election polls alleged that Slobodan Milosevic was carrying strongholds in regions that had traditionally supported the opposition. And on Election Day, results were released specifically to show that he had won by a landslide, when in fact he had not.
In 2000, the year voter fraud in Serbia was most seriously contested, I worked directly to oppose Milosevic’s candidacy. Public reaction to the fraudulent electoral practices in 2000 grew so strong that it resulted in the downfall of Milosevic’s regime in the Bulldozer Revolution on October 5, 2000.
John Talks Joe
Lloyd Grove is editor at large for The Daily Beast. He is also a frequent contributor to New York magazine and was a contributing editor for Condé Nast Portfolio. He wrote a gossip column for the New York Daily News from 2003 to 2006. Prior to that, he wrote the Reliable Source column for the Washington Post, where he spent 23 years covering politics, the media, and other subjects.
Why America Must Learn to Bow
Martin Jacques is the cofounder of the UK think tank Demos, writes a regular column for The Guardian, and is a visiting research fellow at the London School of Economics Asia Research Centre. His new book, When China Rules the World, is available now.
Going Rogue: The Index
Christopher Buckley's books include Supreme Courtship, The White House Mess, Thank You for Smoking, Little Green Men, and Florence of Arabia. He was chief speechwriter for Vice President George H.W. Bush, and is editor-at-large of ForbesLife magazine. His new book is Losing Mum and Pup, a memoir. Buckley's Daily Beast column is the winner of an Online Journalism Award in the category of Online Commentary.
Newt's Rebellion
Douglas E. Schoen is a founding partner for Penn, Schoen & Berland and a co-inventor of overnight polling. He is the author of The Power of the Vote: Electing Presidents, Overthrowing Dictators, and Promoting Democracy Around the World and Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System.
The Race Factor
Douglas E. Schoen is a founding partner for Penn, Schoen & Berland and a co-inventor of overnight polling. He is the author of The Power of the Vote: Electing Presidents, Overthrowing Dictators, and Promoting Democracy Around the World and Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System.
Mr. Schoen,
Amazingly, most astute people like yourself, miss the point that Iranian goverment is NOT a democracy. Unless it happened while I was sleep. The election process has been a sham, is a sham, and will be one as long as the present government is in power. I have no idea whether knowledgable people like yourself just don't know this or are just sucking a dictatorship to the people of Iran.
I understand that your profession has to do with polling, but you have got the wrong system for analysis.
The Iranian government has used decietful tactics as means of survival for the past 30 years. The current situation may just be another ploy they have devised to probably buy time to advance their other agendas. Although they may have miscalculated the risk and get toppled as a result of it.
While the Iranian government isn't ran like a democracy it is setup to be one. Each major component of the Iranian government are either directly elected or indirectly elected by the Iranian people. The supreme leader is appointed/approved and supervised by the "assembly of experts who are directly elected every 8 years. Even the appointments to the Guardian Council (group who vets electoral candidates and filters laws pass by the parliment) by the supreme leader must be approved by the Iranian parliament who's members are elected directly. What went wrong with the Iranian government is the lack of impartial oversight of the election process and the lack of of a free press.
Your point is taken to heart that the system is gamed to provide a democratic outlet without that ever-present risk of democracy--losing power.
While it is not a democracy like we have in the US and many other places today, it is very much is (or at least was in previous elections) a democracy similar to the US was after its founding. Two hundred years ago most of the national elected officials (President, VP, and Senators) were "elected" by privileged elites rather than by the populus.
I think we are in agreement that Iran will continue to be a democracy weakened by the control of the clergy until the clergy's power itself is diminished, but it is a mistake to assume that a republic like Iran cannot evolve more familiar democratic forms.
I suspect that what we are seeing now is not revolution but part of an evolution where the clergy will be forced to cede some small amount of control to the people. If I am right the real change would happen over the coming years as the people demand more and more democratic control.
Then again, the existing powers-that-be could crush this thing or it could fizzle on its own, and we would have more of the same.
It would be a pleasure to see Iran evolve into a democratic state without violence, but studying the history of humans on this planet tells a different story. Those that maintain power over others rarely just give it away without being killed. I have to say that I am feeling a state of pure joy in watching the true spirit of the Iranian people who have been painted as enemies by our own power hungry war mongers in this country. VIVA LA REVOLUTION
Don't read this if you like Douglas Schoen:
"Douglas Schoen and Hillary's Slimy Pollsters"
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2007/09/27/schoen/
The ayatollahs are the fanatical 15th century priest Savonarola who briefly ruled Florence before being burned at the stake for letting his religious ideals ruin the economy.
Obama's wait-and-see approach has certain Scowcroftian advantages; but is the President doing enough? Should he not issue a statement committing to honoring the will of the Iranian people?
http://www.obamapundit.com/?p=293
No.... any public attempt to lend US support will be used by the opposition to claiim that the reform candidate is being backed by the US. That would be just the sign they are looking for.
The numbers never mattered. The mullahs had chosen their candidate.
People, let us get this through our heads. Obama can do NOTHING. We as Americans have absolutely no influence. If we open our big mouths it only reinforces the position of the hard-liners that the opposition is in league with the U.S. There would be more deaths and more repression.
I know we like to think we can make it rain on a sunny day... but let us get back to reality.
Seconded.
This comment has been removed by The Daily Beast's editors.
Hmm, one would hope so but I imagine those in control of the technology will find ways to limit its use to their advantage. But maybe I'm just in a glass half empty kind of mood.
We should always "consider the source". A google of "Douglas Schoen" implies this article lacks credibility.
The solution resides with the living poet prophet, the dude who, in 1969 was on the ship forty days and forty nights, back then, the up and coming poet whose poems were being published all over the place - the poet who was tapped by the LAN Lord "uh pin" heaven to deliver us from evil, the man who simply states that in 1969 G-d revealed his word unto his mind, sew, according to the author, his so-called "spoken poem for all man kind" with a couple dozen world events described in advance, was given to him. He only held the pen.
That dude, Michael Stephen Levinson, aka michaelslevinson dot commie is the one person with the words to satisfy both the Grand Ayatollah and all of the Iranian people, regardless who they actually voted for.
Step 1) You visit michaelslevinson dot commie and scroll down to the 2nd vid where the poet prophet retells the story of Adman and Even in the Gar Den ov Edum. Take note the poet prophet looks like M. Gandhi.
Before we go a step farther understand the longest deepest file ever created by any government is the file your government - the domestic intelligence aristocracy thereof - maintains on this man - his life and times - he will be assassinated, in America, before you ever hear him give a live speech.
That coming assassination is cut in stone, a CLASSIFIED memo written and initialed by J. Edgarina himself, the super fascist cross dressing pervert of dirt.
In the event the poet approaches mass media he is to be immediately "put down." That is what j. Edgarina wrote, and what his living descendants intend. Go to youtube.com/poetprophet and see the poet in New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner's office October 15, 2007.
Poet prophet declared he was a write-in candidate for president seeking the nomination of both parties to present a united face to the world. Well, that is original. In our whole political history Lev is the only person ever to have done that! Is it notable?Is it worth looking into?
He recited a passage from his Television Scripture (c.1971) describing the global warming and the arctic ice caps melting. Duh. You mean there is an actual book c.1971 that described all of this stuff happening today? Is that notable? He stated in Secretary Gardner's office the solution to the medical delivery issue was free medical education for doctors, dentists and all related personal.
Timmy Russert had MSNBC people in the room and they recorded every word. Russert took that idea and asked the democrats what they thought about it during one of their debates. Is it notable? What is notable is the moneyed and powerful diss the poet prophet but lift his ideas when it is convenient.
Tucker Carlson, when he had a program, interviewed a supposed candidate for US senate who claimed he was a vampire. Human interest and all of that. The vampire, actually an ex wrestler who was wanted, or under indictment somewhere, admitted that whether or not you believed he was a vampire, as far as he, the wrestler was concerned, women in Manhattan liked to get their necks bit, a great qualifier for a blood letting no holds barred Carlson interview.
What is notable is this creep jerk wrestler was interviewed on television, but a poet prophet author of prophetic works, whose prophetic works include a description of what 9/11 was going to look like, how, and where it was going to happen, such a person who seeks only to tell his vision and promises every line a spontaneous delicate sensible rhyme - that person is black listed from MSNBC, Fox, CNN, and all the rest.
Oh! This is about Iran, and democracy. We have already heard from former candidate for president John Bomb Bomb McCain. What about Michael Stephen Levinson? What might he offer to relieve the stale check mate? Barky Obama is clearly powerless! (Winners are not automatically leaders). (Especially when they wear eye shadow for their tele-prompter speeches).
Levinson was a write-in candidate for president in 1980, and he devised a program to get the hostages back from Iran.%u2028%u2028What was good 29 years ago is adaptable for today. Had he been successful then, he would have upstaged Ronnie Reagan and who can say whether or not the American people might have given Lev the nod to be our president.
Of course he won't be allowed to speak to this issue today because that would mean an upstaging of Barky Obama which the network television bosses and their associates who pepper domestic intelligence are not going to allow. But you are allowed to read posts in the Beast, just not see or hear the poet prophet live on television tell his vision. That you cannot have. That is disallowed.
Editorial note: My father was good friends with Lev, in the late sixties, before Lev was inspired to write The Book ov lev It A Kiss, to perform world wide from dusk until dawn for all the world's peoples at once. My father did extensive tape recordings of Lev in 1970, while he was writing The Book.
One day some students interrupted him as he was working on a page in the basement cafeteria in the student union. They wanted him to go with them to an anti-war rally. They said the war was bad and the rich kept getting richer. Lev stopped writing, looked up at the two students, and this is what my father recorded him saying:
"This is the good ship mother urf. Whatever deck you live on, the cards are dealt out evenly. When it comes time to change the course of human history, on the good ship mother earth, all the world cries out for is a spokes man, a spokes person, to turn the wheel."
To the Timmy Russerts of this world (Well Tim isn't of this world anymore now is he) Lev was / is like my father, a piece of dreck, an Auschwitz surviver that Hitler missed, but to my ear Lev is a man with a golden tongue, his words a blessing for us!
In 1980, Lev was going to go to Muhammad Ali's training camp in Pennsylvania, to challenge Ali to go to Teheran with him, to meet the Ayatollah Khomeini and bring home the hostages.%u2028%u2028
These are my father's notes:
I asked Lev, (with my tape recorder on) what was he going to say to the Ayatollah. Lev told me, as follows,%u2028%u2028"I was in Capen Hall, on the North campus of the State University of New York At Buffalo and it was very quiet. Around seven p.m. I saw this student sitting by himself on a lounge chair, he looked Middle Eastern. I walked over and sat down. I told him I wanted to go to Teheran and meet the Ayatollah.
The student remarked that he was from Iran, and of course he spoke Farsi. It was so quiet. There wasn't anyone around but the two of us.%u2028
I asked him would he translate what I want to say to the Ayatollah and the student said, "Sure. What is it?" I thought for a moment and then I said, in English, "All we ask is return of our own"
He answered, and I wrote it doen in phonetic English, "Mah Cha stori gheru gahn cha cha steem" Then I said the next line,"The Shah is with God" The Shah had just died of Cancer - in Egypt.
Then I said to the Iranian student that, upon that line, all the Iranian people would shout to the Heavens, "The Shah is in hell." The student translated, "The Shah boh cha dah ast,"%u2028%u2028
Then I had him to translate, and I am paraphrasing, if the Ayatollah will give me and Muhammad Ali the hostages to bring back to America, all the American people will vote for me to be the president of United States and Muhammad Ali vice -president.
If I am elected president, in 1980, world peace comes in 1982. After world peace comes, God (Big Al) (Allah to you) Allah is going to make the resurrection. After God makes the resurrection, all the children of the Iranian people who were murdered by Savak, the Shah's secret police, shall be returned to their families here on the earth . . and the Shah shall be returned to the Iranian people . .
"So the Imam, Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini could order that Shah Pahlavi be stoned to death!!!"%u2028%u2028
"The student told me that my sense of Allah, of God was different from everyone else's in the world. That God, for me, was not an intellectual construct, but was in my bones." Then the student said, I should make a tape of my speech to the Ayatollah and send it to the Algerian embassy, to pass along to the Iranians.%u2028%u2028
Then when I fly over to Teheran there will be a million Iranians waiting to greet me at the airport, with flowers."%u2028
I asked Lev why didn't he follow through and challenge Ali to put off boxing Larry Holmes and go to Teheran with him.%u2028%u2028Lev said, the night before he was going to drive to Pennsylvania - to Ali's training camp, to challenge Ali, he went on the roof of his mother's (and his) apartment to smoke a cigarette.
He saw an old pickup truck speeding down Delaware Avenue and swerve on to Max Pedan's Mobile station, where his mother's Chevrolet Caprice convertible was parked. %u2028%u2028
He walked across the roof. %u2028%u2028
One guy was aleady under the back of their car, the other under the side. He shouted out, "What are you guys doing by that car."%u2028%u2028
They jumped up piled into their pickup truck and sped off. The next day Lev went down stairs and (I'm skipping a part of the tape) discovered before he gassed up the car that the muffler, brand new, was on the pavement after one bump.
He pulled the car on to Dave Duncan's Sunoco, across the street, where they had just put on the muffler.%u2028%u2028
They put the car on the lift and the brand new O ring had been cut almost all the way through, with a razor, and then these two rough-necks showed up just as they were inspecting the muffler assembly.%u2028%u2028
Then the two rough-necks left, and Lev looked outside to see them get into an old beat up pick-up truck that resembled the truck from the night before. As he went to gas up the car for the trip, he changed his mind about going to Pennsylvania.%u2028%u2028
A couple weeks later he discovered a hole in the gas tank. When he went to get it fixed he could see - not rust - but a hole punched in the gas tank along the seam.%u2028%u2028
Not exactly The pelican Brief, but close enough. Fill tank. Gas leaks and coats tank with gas. Muffler breaks loose because of razor cut O ring. Muffler drags on pavement. Sparks fly every where. KaBOOM.%u2028%u2028
Lev says that experience set him back years in his quest to make a speech on world wide television and change the course of human history on our good ship other urf, something he could get done, as president of United States, but not as a private citizen.
His words for the Ayatollah were repeated in his speech on New Hampshire Public Television, available at youtube.com/poetprophet, and, get this:%u2028When he made his speech to the Ayatollah at the University, he recorded it on 3/4 inch tape and he is getting those original tapes of the live speech September 30, 1980 that he has had all these years put on to DVD and it will be on youtube and his web site.%u2028So you can see what the living black listed prophet looked like nearly thirty years ago.%u2028
A gentle man is inspired with words for all man kind and the only guarantee is your government will make another attempt at assassinating him before he gets that far. J. Edgarina, the cross dressing pervert of dirt lies buried but his personally chosen minions carry on.
Hopefully I will survive to publish the tapes I have of his conversations. You, of course are prohibited from ever seeing this man speak live. he is black listed and black balled at NBC. MSNBC, and lots of other places, too. Such is life in the land of the free and the home of the brevity.
michaelslevinson dot commie is the site not to visit unless you want an echo in your telephone meaning you are live on j. edgarina's party line.
I wanna know why AMERICA was not listed as a country with sham elections??? We ALL know bush STOLE office and we did NOTHING... look what happens... its articles like this that remind me how hippocritical this nation is, quick to attack and lookdown upon others while ignoring our own faults and errors.
Thank you.
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