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The Crisis in Iran Is Just Beginning
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Gary Sick, the key White House official during the 1979 hostage crisis, says this revolution may be more of a marathon than a sprint, with no clear winner or loser. The watchwords for Obama: Do no harm.
As I set forth on a long vacation trip, here are a few observations about the situation in Iran based on my own experience of watching the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis from the White House 30 years ago.
Don’t expect that this will be resolved cleanly with a win or loss in short period of time. The Iranian revolution, which is usually regarded as one of the most accelerated overthrows of a well-entrenched power structure in history, started in about January 1978, and the shah departed in January 1979. During that period, there were long pauses and periods of quiescence that could lead one to believe that the revolt had subsided. This is not a sprint; it is a marathon. Endurance is at least as important as speed.
The Iranians prefer chess to football, and a “win” may involve a negotiated solution in which everyone saves face.
There may not be a clear winner or loser. Iranians are clever and wily politicians. They prefer chess to football, and a “win” may involve a negotiated solution in which everyone saves face. The current leadership has chosen, probably unwisely, to make this a test of strength, but if they conclude that it is a no-win situation, they could settle for a compromise. The shape of a compromise is impossible to guess at this point, but it would probably involve significant concessions concealed behind a great public show of unity.
Leadership is the key. Ayatollah Khamenei, the rahbar or leader, has chosen—again probably unwisely—to get out in front as the spokesman of the regime. Unlike his predecessor, the father of the revolution Ayatollah Khomeini, he has openly taken sides with one faction over another. He is clearly speaking for the ultraconservative leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and their equally reactionary clerical supporters, who fear any possible threat to their dominant power. Curiously, President Ahmadinejad has largely vanished from sight, which adds to the impression that he is more of a pawn than a prime mover in this affair.
On the other side is Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the erstwhile colleague and now principal antagonist of the rahbar. He has chosen, as he usually does, to stay behind the scenes as a master strategist, leaving the public field to Mir Hossein Mousavi and the other disappointed candidates and their followers.
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Gary Sick served on the National Security Council staff under Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan. He was the principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis and is the author of two books on U.S.-Iranian relations. Mr. Sick is a captain (ret.) in the U.S. Navy, with service in the Persian Gulf, North Africa and the Mediterranean.
Mr. Sick,
you say :"and a "win" may involve a negotiated solution" !?!?
What is there to negotiate? People are dying in the streets everyday. You really think there may be a negotiated solution ?
Would you negotiate with muderers? I don't think so. And niether will the Iranian people or any other nation is the same shoes.
A negotiated solution may actually be the best solution, if it meets the primary concerns of the people of Iran while avoiding bloodshed.
The government in Iran controls large numbers of armed forces that are still loyal, and willing to attack their own people to defend it, as has been demonstrated. If the opposition rules out negotiation, and backs the government into a corner where they have to make an all or nothing decision, then there is no telling how catastrophic the results could be.
In my opinion, Mr. Sick is spot on in his analysis. There is no telling how these events will pan out, and the best option for both parties is likely a negotiated solution.
The Great Satan turns out to be under their own noses. Rafsanjani did not attent the Supreme Leader's speech. Rafsanjani's daughter who supports Mousavi has been "arrested" and Rafsanjani heads up the clerics. Looks like heinous political black mail and his daughter's life is the pressure. Talk about axis of evil.
You negotiate with the regime that is there, not the one you wish were there.
Mr. Sick is right: this is an internal struggle that must be resolved internally. And the US should stay out. Not only because it serves our long term interests, but more importantly because it's the best path for the success and safety of the Iranian protesters. I pray to God that they are successful, if for the good of the people, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that Moussavi is US friendly or a reformer dedicated to freedom. Nor is Rafsanjani. This is a power struggle, and any progress made for the people of Iran will be incremental rather than revolutionary.
Nevertheless, change is imminent and technology is paving the way. The best we can do to further democracy and freedom in Iran and other totalitarian countries of the world is to invent and further new ways for information to be distributed. So all voices shall be heard.
I think Sick is right, that this will not be immediate, but there will be significant progress towards a more liberal Islamic republic. The game changer for the regime was technology. They were unprepared to control information and cyberwarfare took them by surprise. Does this prove that an educated technologized majority can no longer be supressed?
And I am surprised at you Gary Sick.....the Shi'ia survived the Umayydd Caliphate by strength of faith and overthrew the tyrant Shah with the same religious non-violent protests they are employing now. Don't you remember? The nighttime chants from the rooftop of Allahu Akbar!
Would you have bet on MLK? This is the same....a civil rights movement fueled by non-violent religious protests.
Do not underestimate the power of religion.
And do not underestimate the power of women. Iranian women are analogous to blacks in 1950's America.
And they will overcome.
Allahu Akbar are powerful words in Iran. Hopefully the movement will keep gaining momentum. Send more texting/photo cell phones and keep communicating our support to those struggling for freedoms.
If the history of mankind has taught us one thing, it is that freedom is inherent in every person.
It knows no race, gender, culture, time or place.
What is taking place in Iran is a true revolution for freedom - not a compromise to save the ill-named Islamic Republic.
In the end, freedom wills out. It always does.
This regime has lost all credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of its own people, and in the rest of the world--or at least those parts not under the control of dictatorships and police states.
They did it to themselves, doubling down again and again on an electoral fraud so obvious that anyone over the age of three could see through it immediately. They have completely dropped the mask of democracy and are now showing their true colors--a Nazi police state run by a Supreme Fuehrer, a Revolutionary Guard that resembles the SS and Basiji Militia who act like Nazi Stormtroopers.
Next time, I hope the Iranians at least make sure that they never give absolute power to a Shah, king, dictator or Supreme leader who cannot be voted out of office. The results of that are obvious.
I think Hodgeman hit the nail on the head at the latest Press Society dinner. This man is an intellect of more than respectable proportion. He is a broad spectrum individual. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he could play chess (from memory) while playing basketball. He's clearly more intelligent than the Congress he recently graduated from. I think he's doing fine with Iran and will continue to do so. The congress-people presently going insane are the same people he left behind to become President.
It's time for the world to help the people of Iran. They have earned that support by demonstrating against tyranny and oppression.
Only the Iranians can solve this.
They created a revolution to get rid of an oppressor emperor.
They ended up with an equally oppressive Islamic Republic run by fascistic lunatics. Neda had to take underground singing lessons. Women are forbidden to sing in Iran!
Iranians and only Iranians can solve this.
Indeed Gary. I've also seen this as a chess game to be won only by foresight and patience. Though sitting idly by as these poor (brave and wonderful) citizens are being beaten and persecuted is impossibly contrary to any decent person's sensibilities. I hope dearly for an end to Iran's deadly chess game.
Thank you, Mr. Sick for an insightful, intelligent article that takes the long view - both past and future. Much food for thought and a beacon of light that cuts straight through all the political BS now on CNN and MSNBC.
I've used the last line myself. It's the big picture. It is a game of chess. Big mouths and blowhards are not intelligent foreign policies.
We had 8 years of it. It doesn't work. You build consensus and try to bring out positive change. You do not threaten the world with destruction every time you do not get your way.
I hope Obama can maintain such a chess-like policy.
Playing chess with the Mullahs Mr. Sick?
Abbas Milani put it very well a couple years ago " Negotiating with the "Islamic Republic" is like playing chess with a Chimpanzee; as you are contemplating your next move it picks up a piece and eats it!".
Thank you.
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