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A Deal to Save Iran?
Alfred, Sipa / AP Photo
The Daily Beast’s Reza Aslan reports that Iran’s clerics may be close to forcing a compromise from the supreme leader—one that would entail a runoff election between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad.
Reliable sources in Iran are suggesting that a possible compromise to put an end to the violent uprising that has rocked Iran for the past two weeks may be in the works. I have previously reported that the second most powerful man in Iran, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly of Experts (the body with the power to choose and dismiss the supreme leader) is in the city of Qom—the country’s religious center—trying to rally enough votes from his fellow assembly members to remove the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power. News out of Iran suggests that he may be succeeding. At the very least, it seems he may have gained enough support from the clerical establishment to force a compromise from Khamenei, one that would entail a runoff election between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main reformist rival Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Reports of the possible compromise, though unconfirmed, are coming from multiple sources. Considering the Guardian Council’s tacit admission that there were indeed some voting irregularities (at least 50 cities in Iran reported more than 100% voter turnout—some as much as 140%), as well as the refusal of many senior members of Iran’s parliament, including the powerful speaker Ali Larijani, a close ally of Khamenei, to accept the election results (Ahmadinejad’s presidential victory party last night drew less than a third of parliament’s members, with Larijani a conspicuous no-show), there is reason to believe that the regime may be willing to accept some kind of compromise. More importantly, cracks have begun to appear among the highest levels of the Revolutionary Guard. A few days ago, the head of Tehran’s branch of the IRGC, the one-eyed war hero Ali Fazli, was removed from his post and detained, ostensibly for refusing to follow orders. Meanwhile, the sheer brutality of the government crackdown has only further fueled the peoples’ anger. On Tuesday, a large number of bazaar merchants closed their shops in an unofficial strike to show solidarity with the protesters. And despite the fact that protests in the capital city of Tehran have diminished, there are still reports of massive protests taking place in other parts of the country, including in Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Mashad, and Shiraz. These protests have been significantly smaller due to the brutal security crackdown, but they have also been much more forceful and violent.
It was exactly a week ago, during Friday prayers, that Khamenei threw down the gauntlet to the protesters, unleashing the full force of Iran's security apparatus to deal with the uprising. If a compromise is indeed in the works, look for a softening of tone tomorrow during Khamenei’s Friday sermon.
Reza Aslan, a contributor to The Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
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Reza Aslan, a contributor to the Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
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Reza Aslan, a contributor to the Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
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Reza Aslan, a contributor to the Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
Excellent news.
I agree and hope it works. At least then in some measure the sacrifice of all those brave Iranians will be recognized.
Question: Does anyone know where it is possible to discover which corporations are doing business with Iran. If the names could be posted with contact info then hopefully many would appeal to them to temporarily halt all trade in support of those fighting for justice.
Question: I saw on BBC that close to a Billion dollars in assets have been frozen in Britain and there is the allegation that the money belongs to the son of the supreme leader. What business is the fellow in? or is it a transfer of Iranian government funds to a private account? Would be interesting to know.
please, God,
let them figure it out
and keep us out
of their country.
Amen to that.
I'll second that Amen!
Thank God the Cheney Administration is no longer running the show. We would already be making plans to invade in the name of "National Security Interests".
We should strongly support these people and their right to freedom, but it is not our place to forcibly tell these people how to live their lives and run their nation (Iraq). It will mean nothing if they do not achieve it themselves.
Are Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Larijani opposed to Iran's nuclear program? Do they reject the concept of Rule by the Supreme Jurist? Democracy in and of itself is a good thing but there is no guarantee these men will be more pliable or amenable to American imperial interests than the current bunch.
The current rift between the public and the ruling class is undermining Iran's existing power structure. Acknowledging problems with the election and forcing Khamenei and/or Ahmadinejad out, or at the very least a legitimate runoff election should preserve the Assembly's power. Otherwise, Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the assembly will all lose the faith of Iran's people and will suffer dearly for it in the coming years.
Ahmadinejad obviously rejects the concept of Rule by the Supreme Jurist. In Ahmadinejad's Iran, his military rules.
A Mousavi-led Iran, taking power with the support of the young, urban, reform-minded Iranians, should be less bellicose toward its neighbors and would more effectively be able to assure the world that its nuclear ambitions are peaceful and in line with the tenets of Islam.
Who says amenability to American imperial interests is what we want? I just want to be able to work with and get along with Iran, not take it over and exploit it.
Please, America is in decline, we can't count on the Russians or the Chinese to back us in anything useful, lets please just find away to get along with Iran, taking potential pressure off The Israeli/Palestinian conflict if Hamas chills.
Yes, it's all about us.
Are you serious? I think the IRANIANS are protesting for their own interests, not in hopes that a new govt will make them the tools of America.
As Americans, we do have a hope that a new leader in Iran would change the game.... But anytime a democracy is established soundly, it is good for all democratic nations. Democratic societies generally do not war with each other. (perhaps I should qualify that to say SOUND democracies generally do not war with each other)
Reza,
I think this is great news but who will monitor the run off? I don't think this is about the rigged election anymore. This about the system and how it needs to change. Lets hope Iran won't turn into china but something closer to turkey.
I know, I know I shouldn't even be thinking it at a time like this but Reza, man you are so hot!
Great job on Daily Show last night as well -- Meeow. Such a catch...
Hope we can confirm this soon because this is really great news.
Without us having to invade Iran, thank god.
Why is everyone talking about American interventionism? We are an empire in serious decline, with a world wide economic disaster that ain't going away anytime soon. Please Read Reza's new book, and his old one. We NEED new thinking! And I agree with iaintpeople, Reza is adorable, but I really just want to have a beer and a long talk. lol - Loved you on Bill Maher!
little trouble in big saudi arabia???
May I ask the writer of this piece to stop SPREADING FALSE RUMORS. His words and actions have been quite ludicrous since the beginning of the election charade in Iran. And you can only spot that if you are Iranian and know what has been going on. He's downgraded from a respectable academic to a gossip column. The "sources" he's constantly quoting must be his aunts and uncles, because mines have been telling me the same thing from Iran, but since when does family gossip deserve a column?
SHAME.
Ahmadinejad is dying his hair! Barky Obama wears eye shadow.
The Iranian mullahs and the hair dyer Ahmadinejad should be thoroughly condemned before the world as the fascists they are - condemned to live for eternity beneath the Shah's heel in hell, and we should invite all of the Iranians under the age of thirty to come live in America!
The speech should be in Farsi by the president and play world wide. and he should cancel the eye shadow.
Wouldn't this new election be rigged as well???
Won't the election just be rigged again???
This would be amazing. One concern is how will they make sure the run-off election is honest and not simply declared for Ahmadinejad after a more believable amount of time and with a less conspicuous margin? Tomorrow's prayers should be very interesting...cannot wait!
Does Khamenai have enough
Remaining credibility to convince
Iranians of the results in a run-off election?
It is hoped that a run off election will be after Khamenei is ousted from power as that is what is being worked on, prayers and fingers crossed that this will happen and someone disbands the Basij!
Only if Mousavi wins.
Rafsanjani has his work
Cut out for him.
Question: I saw on BBC that Britain has frozen nearly 1 billion in assets that allegedly belong to Khamenei's son? Just what kind of business is he in or have they been quietly moving the people's money offshore?
Question: Is anyone posting the names and contact info for corporations that are doing business with Iran? If millions of people were to appeal to their responsibility as corporate citizens they may at least temporarily stop....okay I know it is a longshot but they do sometimes respond to pressure.
Thank you Rez, thank you so much for your somewhat good news, I have emailed your comments on my facebook and many friends. I am a great fan, love it when you come to Rachel's show, if you ever see her again, please thank her on behalf of me and many of my friends. I knew, I just should listen to your reports, the most reliable ones. Thank you, God bless your heart, keep up the good work, please, we need your wisdom and talent.
Fariba Karimi
The reported detention of the IRGC leader is a hopeful indication that Khamenei's directed brutality may be too much for the formal military to put upon their own people. My concern is that the brutal Basiji decide to fill the vacuum. From what I have gathered they seem to be mercenaries that relish brutalizing protesters.
Can the IRGC put them (Basiji') down if necessary? Will there be a civil division developing here?
I only pray Obama maintains his composure and disregards McCain, Bennet and other armchair quarterbacks.
I wondered the same thing. There was a General in China that refused to shoot the students in the Tieneman Square and he was also detained. Don't know what happened there. Hopefully, there will me more. I think Obama is handliing things very well.
Are the Basij from out of country as some suspect? Are they being paid?
Professor Aslan, I would be greatly interested in your thoughts on the reports of Sistani's involvement in the meetings in Qom that Rafsanjani has organized. I have read in several places about Sistani's growing influence in Iran at the expense of Khomenei. Do you have any insight into this?
Begs the question...who's going to officiate the count of a runoff election?
I am glad to hear it. I hope it is true and that at least a compromise can be reached. I would love to see the violence toward the citizens end.
by the way, have I said that I LOVE Resa Azlan. Such a cutie pie.
I'm sure he painstakingly researches his subject and carefully crafts his articles so that you will call him a cutie pie.
Is it just me, or is referring to a serious journalist that way a little condescending?
looks like you've been sandwiched between two who have a crush on Reza.
ah, such is life, eh?
Oh, its just you pal lol
God please grow some brain cells in our supreme leader's head before Friday prayer! Amen!
This does leave me with concerns that if a runoff election is held.... will there be violence in an attempt (perhaps even from both sides) to keep people from voting? Would there be more oversight to assure the people of the legitimacy of the voting? If the vote comes out with Ahmadinejad winning again, what happens? The protestors have been saying this is all about having their rights and votes counting, but I feel (and I believe others do as well) that it has become more than that. There has been a lot of hope for a change in leadership built up; if that hope is deflated by an unfavorable outcome in a runoff election, what next? Go back to business as usual? I don't see how it is possible.
Reza, I've been seeing you all over the news shows and in the process I have fallen desperately and deeply in love with you.
Your appearance on the Daily Show was a breath of fresh air. And I need to correct you on something. You no longer need to feel self-concious about saying the president's full name.
Barack HUSSEIN Obama has become a source of pride.
Say it loud, and say it proud my pet! :)
If your previous article, which said that the election really shows that the Pasadran and not Khamenei are in charge, is correct, then how would a runoff change anything?
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there is no compromise coming weedyseadragon. there never has been. Reza is full of hot air. Go to www.juancole.com if you want informed commentary instead of this 6th page gossip that Reza is dishing out.
Thank you.
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