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Barbour vs. Obama, 2012
L to R: Mark Wilson / Getty Images, Ethan Miller / Getty Images
In the fifth in a series of posts on the 2012 landscape, former Bush and McCain strategist Mark McKinnon explains why the Mississippi governor, in the wake of the Ensign and Sanford debacles, could go all the way—and why Jenny Sanford is a potential superstar.
Read Mark McKinnon's full series on the 2012 landscape.
Go ahead and laugh at the idea of Haley Barbour for president. It’s only natural. The idea is as ridiculous as believing that Mark Sanford was actually out hiking the Appalachian Trail—which, of course, I did.
But the fun thing about politics is that the conventional wisdom so often gets thrown out the window. So laugh at the idea of candidate Barbour if you want to, but there are some interesting angles to consider.
The best thing Barbour would have going for him is that his opposition would not take him seriously.
Samuel P. Jacobs has an excellent Daily Beast report that covers Barbour’s political history, which includes: political director of the Reagan White House, co-founder of one of Washington’s most successful lobbying firms, chairman of the Republican National Committee, and governor of Mississippi.
The notion of Barbour as a serious presidential candidate seems improbable, but think about the dynamics of most presidential elections. Whenever there is a “change” election, people don’t vote for moderate change, they vote for radical change. And they generally look to someone who is the opposite of the resident of the White House at the time. Hence, George W. Bush creates the possibility of Barack Obama—just as Johnson begat Nixon, Nixon/Ford begat Carter, Carter begat Reagan, and Bush begat Clinton. In each of these cases, voters wanted the polar opposite of the man who was in office.
As talented as President Obama is, and given his fairly impressive performance so far, it’s a pretty safe bet that he will be reelected in 2012. But that makes some big assumptions, the kind of assumptions people made about George H.W. Bush in 1991, when he had approval ratings above 80 percent and everyone thought he’d be a two-term president.
So let’s take an alternative view, just for the sake of political parlor games. Let’s say things deteriorate significantly in the next couple of years: The economy slides into permanent recession. We experience a significant foreign-policy crisis with Iran or North Korea. Things go badly off the rails.
Under these circumstances, voters would likely experience some serious buyer’s remorse about Obama and look for a very different candidate. And could there be anybody more different from Obama than Barbour? An old (not young), white (not black), rotund (not skinny), former lobbyist (not former community organizer) from the Deep South, Mississippi (not the far north, Chicago).
And while most laughed at the idea of someone of Barbour’s background being elected governor, even in Mississippi, both his election and tenure since have been impressive. He balanced budgets without any tax increases after inheriting a budget deficit of $720 million; helped establish a 27.8 percent increase in per capita personal income; enacted comprehensive tort reform; and passed significant funding increases for education. Barbour was elected in 2003 with the largest voter turnout in Mississippi gubernatorial history, and he was re-elected in 2007 with 58.2 percent of the vote. He is the second governor since Reconstruction to be elected to a second consecutive term.
And Hurricane Katrina provided a true leadership litmus test. Just look at the difference in the response between Mississippi and Louisiana. Governor Kathleen Blanco was driven from office for her miserable performance. Barbour was reelected handily for his and awarded the Thomas Jefferson Freedom Award, which is presented to a nationally recognized leader by the bipartisan American Legislative Exchange Council. He was also named Governor of the Year for 2006 by Washington, D.C.-based Governing magazine.
And Barbour is a consummate campaigner. He has a finely tuned understanding of American politics. A big talent. Highly literate. Raised by a single mom. And never failed at anything he’s tried.
And the best thing he’d have going for him is that his opposition would not take him seriously.
So, with Haley’s comet lighting up the skies of New Hampshire and Iowa—and with Sanford and Ensign’s stars having crashed ignominiously to earth, it’s time once again to realign our 2012 Top 10 list (although it’s getting harder and harder to find even 10 worthy candidates):
1. Mitt Romney (given sexual escapades of last two weeks, the Mormon is looking better and better)
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. John Thune
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Sarah Palin
6. Bobby Jindal
7. Newt Gingrich
8. Haley Barbour
9. Mitch Daniels
10. Jon Huntsman
Long, ridiculous shot just for fun and because she deserves some kudos: Jenny Sanford (credit for at least one Sanford coming out of the mess looking good).
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, causes, and individuals, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today’s rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.









I agree that Mr. Barbour could be a smart choice for Republicans, but I don't think he'll get very far. The Katrina example you cite is exactly what will be his downfall.
The initial investigations in to the Katrina response by the GWB admin. showed that Gov. Barbour was receiving a lot of direction/money from the WH, while Gov. Blanco was getting the run around. Those emails from Karl Rove's office directing funds to MS, while ignoring LA are bound to be leaked out again. And, I would be surprised, if more information was released. Katrina will be Barbour's hurricane that knocks his bid off course.
Could not agree more. From the rest of america that only has twitteresque attention span, Katrina is the first word association that comes with this guy.
The dispursement of Katrina dollars could take down Barbour or Jindal, although Barbour has probably been the most effective governor in Mississippi history, just being from Mississippi carries a stigma. Barbour is a pragmatist with well developed political acumen. He wouldn't run just to be running. He is more aware of his negatives than the average politician.
OK, far more likely, 2012 is going to come around and Obama will have decent poll numbers, good enough that it will be an uphill battle for the Republican.
Without a Democratic primary, and with prospects dim for a change in White House resident, only the most excitable portions of the GOP base will be picking their candidate. Whether that happens to be the Southern(Barbour), the Sagebrush(Romney), or Evangelical(Huckabee) is to early to divine.
Saw Pawlenty this weekend on the TV. Hard to imagine him getting nominated by the Republicans.
I refuse to vote for anyone that has actually won an election in Minnesota
A return to fat white ex-lobbysists as our leadership figures isn't exactly a change...
Also isn't it depressing that Bobby Jindal, he of "volcano research is unnecessary and exorcisms are simply a reasonable way of removing the many demons that try to bring the devil into one's soul, is still at 6 on that list?
Let's remember that McKinnon thought Dubya was "the real deal" too, and helped get Bush elected twice. Don't be shocked to learn that professional shill McKinnon is now getting paid by Barbour. Mississippi governor Barbour is the epitome of the Southern cracker culture warrior with no vision for the future and trapped in the racist past. In that sense, he and McKinnon are perfect together.
Yes, I am in total agreement alex. I saw McKinnon this morning on MSNBC and I heard him say this. I almost lost my breakfast. I think McKinnon is in denial.
Haley Barbour,a slow-talkin,mouth full of sh*t, money grubbing Republican con artist would be a perfect pick for certain defeat in 2012. Bring on that good-ole boy and his racist mentality to guarantee certain defeat!
Read the following article, it gives you an good idea of what a slime-ball Barbour is:
nttimes.com/1997/07/25/no-dice-haley.html
oh, christ. haley barbour. haley. barbour. haley freaking barbour?!
sure, his record sounds impressive, especially coming from a lying douchebag. "27.8% increase in per capita income". wow. you don't say. really. o rly? let's try this on for size:
haley was elected in 2003 and took a state with a worst in the nation 19.6% poverty rate and moved it... to a 22.6% poverty rate in 2007. he led the state from having 16.8% of the population having no insurance to 19.8% having no health insurance. and income? well, per capita income, which is the statewide average, looks great. but median income , which is the income most people actually make, how did that do? well, in 2003 it was 50th out of 50 states for median income and in 2007 it was... wait for it... 50th out of 50 states. and of course, there was also the increase in infant mortality haley personally engineered when he threw all those poor children (and i don't mean poor as in i feel sorry for them, i mean poor as in they have no money) off state insurance. sanctity of life, indeed.
so let's see, rich get richer, poor get poorer and sicker, and most everyone in the middle sees things stay the same. if you need someone to run the country like a south american bananna plantation, haley's your guy. viva el cerdo!
if a national party, any party, could look at haley's record and decide that's what we need more of in this country, we are truly f'ed.
*p.s. if anyone knows mckinnon's email, please ask him to spend 10 minutes googling the following phrases:
"median income by state"
"poverty by state"
"mississippi infant mortality"
laziness is no excuse for spreading misinformation.
Well said.
Aesthetics counts. So having this Bubba-talking, red-faced bloated balloon as the GOP rep is just fine for us. The Obama camp will likely be thrilled. Barbour can have the Confederate good ol'boy cracker vote; everyone else will flock to Obama's side.
(Can you imagine Barbour even attempting to give a speech like Obama did in Cairo? Let the GOP implosion continue...)
Barbour has many strings to his bow and one thing is certain. The only appology he would ever have to make, as representative of the American people whilst in Cairo or elsewhere, is for a....holes like you!
That Barbour has any chance is simply a testament to how far the GOP needs to come to approach credibility again.
I fear McKinnon's credibility is evaporating at a rather rapid rate as well. Maybe he should take some time off? Hiking, perhaps?
Hiking would certainly launch him as a potential presidential candidate.
Don't worry about McKinnon's credibility. The public's memory lasts as long as the last scandal involving zippers and hormones. We'll never suffer an interruption in his feverish bloviations, and we'll keep responding to him as if he has something serious to say. It's a theater of the absurd. And I'm right here reading and commenting along with everyone else. Tina's a genius - giving us this sandbox so we don't go out on the highways, or the taverns, and create mayhem. Better, though, to take up needlepoint. You get something useful at the end.
I love the "sandbox" analogy. Good one. I agree - McKinnon is worthless and what makes it worse, he doesn't even believe his own drivel.
Sorry but McKinnon's argument doesn't hold water. Barbour has a lot of skeletons in his closet that will come out, come nomination time...or in the next month if he continues to be the "GOP Flavor of the Month" for a run at the presidency in 2012. He'd be wise to duck instead of joining the Jindal, Gingrich, Palin, Limbaugh, Romney "hall of shame."
Forgive me, Mississippi, but I'm not looking to you to be the state we should look up to. Your education system still s*cks, there's rampant discrimination and you aren't exactly noted for "forward-thinking." Babour is a HARD sell this year or any year; he's just another aging white guy from the south.
Of course there's always the argument that the GOP loves him so pair him up with Palin and make a run at the presidency. It will be worth the laughs.
If this is really the best that the Republicans can muster Dems will coast in 2012.
Here are a list of reasons as to why McKinnon is wrong again
Barbour problems (thinkprogress list):
"Family members and lobbyists profited from Katrina tragedy: "Among the beneficiaries are Barbour's own family and friends, who have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars from hurricane-related business. A nephew, one of two who are lobbyists, saw his fees more than double in the year after his uncle appointed him to a special reconstruction panel."
"Owned controlling interest in 2002 New Hampshire phone jamming company: For nearly two hours on election day 2002, subcontractors for the telemarketing firm GOP Marketplace tied-up Democratic and union phone banks with repeated hang up calls. Multiple GOP officials eventually either pled guilty to or were convicted of criminally violating federal communications law. Barbour's investment group, Helm Partners, was not only a major investor in GOP Marketplace, but it also held a controlling interest in the firm."
"As a lobbyist, he represented firm indicted in Tom DeLay's money laundering scandal: As a lobbyist for Barbour Griffith & Rogers, Barbour represented The Alliance for Quality Nursing Home Care Inc., "a corporate coalition of 14 of the country's largest for-profit nursing home companies." The Alliance wrote a check for $100,000 "ended up illegally funding Republican candidates for the Texas statehouse" in 2002. The check was eventually used as evidence in the case that led to indictments for money laundering against former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX)."
"A former tobacco lobbyist, he killed Mississippi's successful anti-smoking program: From 1998 to 2002, Barbour's lobbying firm "was paid a total of $3.8 million by the tobacco companies." As governor of Mississippi, he led an effort to defund and ultimately kill the state's anti-smoking program, considered to be "the nation's most successful anti-smoking programs."
"Directed large amounts of reconstruction funds to wealthy homeowners: Barbour and Mississippi's two Republican Senators steered an "unprecedented" $23.5 billion in federal reconstruction aid, but by waiving a HUD requirement that "70 percent of the funds are supposed to be allocated to low- and moderate-income people." Barbour "badly skewed" the funds towards "wealthy homeowners," with only 25 percent reaching "the poorer segments of the population."
I made a mistake in my blog with the web address @ 9:35. The second letter should y instead of t. The article will give a great insight to what Barbour is all about, himself!
I find as a rule of thumb it is best to think exactly the opposite of what Mark McKinnon thinks. (And also not to try to predict the future 3 years out)
I want to know why Gov Barber imported labor from West Africa to work in your casinos and not his own residents.
What happened to all that money from the casinos profits that were supposed to go to increase education in your state Governor? This is why casinos were allowed - for the sake of your education?
Where is the money Mr. Barber?
Why did you import labor?
What is your unemployment rate?
What have you done for your people in Mississippi?
What is the ranking of education in your state?
Why are people in the Delta living in the poorest poverty level in the USA?
What about Greenville governor? Or any other ignored Katrina town - away from the casinos on the Gulf Coast of course?
Many questions Barber-
So much corruption - so many questions?
Who is the Hero of South Carolinians?
"He would have never won either of his governor's races without her -- no way," said Will Folks, Sanford's spokesman from 2001 to 2005. "She ran the show. He pointed the direction he wanted to go, and she was the bulldozer that cleared the path and got him there."
Who is the 'philandering politician'?
"His career is not a concern of mine," Jenny Sanford told reporters camped at the end of her driveway as she left with her boys for a boat ride the other day. "He's going to have to worry about that. I'm worried about my family and the character of my children."
Her husband has been staying in the governor's mansion in Columbia since she kicked him out a few weeks ago.
When did she find out about the affair? A few weeks ago?
'...but that she asked him to leave because it was "important to look my sons in the eyes and maintain my dignity, self-respect and my basic sense of right and wrong."'
Guess that concern was a tough decision for her, since she learned of this more than a few weeks ago.
Sullivan's Island?
What is the average income of residents on Sullivan's Island- compare that to the population of SC?
South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis made a name for himself in the late 1990s as one of Bill Clinton's most zealous pursuers, an impeachment "manager" who attacked the moral failings of the president with a gusto that earned him a devoted following in the staunchly conservative "Upstate" of conservative South Carolina.
This is the most revealing part of Rep. Bob Inglis statement:
His last conversation with Gov. Mark Sanford was about the hundreds of millions of dollars in stimulus money that the uncompromising governor was trying to refuse for his impoverished state. Inglis had voted against President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus bill, ardently, he said.
But he said he told the governor, now that it was approved, "for goodness sake, take the money." It might just help.
All of the hoopla and wasted time- on our country's time - while we were at the brink of disaster
Amazing! Country First?
What is the unemployment is SC?
The unemployment rate, for South Carolinians almost 12%!
He emailed his mistress stating internet connection is NO GOOD at his farm, in South Carolina.
When you hear Obama talk about Broadband from coast to coast - 'FOR ALL' - this is what he is talking about.
Does he care that rural South Carolina has unreliable internet.
Apparently- he - like John McCain- could care less. If we all followed John McCain's lead- then none of us would be here posting!
How long have computers been in America- for consumer use?
Why did the Leader, John McCain never bother to learn how to use a computer?
Could anyone imagine if all Americans followed his lead?
No wonder-
It seems America does not care either that we are far behind as country!
After all - it is not Country First it is Business First!
Enjoy!
April 3, 2009
World's Fastest Broadband at $20 Per Home
By Saul Hansell
If you get excited about the prospect of really, really fast broadband Internet service, here's a statistic that will make heart race. Or your blood boil. Or both.
Pretty much the fastest consumer broadband in the world is the 160-megabit-per-second service offered by J:Com, the largest cable company in Japan. Here's how much the company had to invest to upgrade its network to provide that speed: $20 per home passed.
The cable modem needed for that speed costs about $60, compared with about $30 for the current generation.
By contrast, Verizon is spending an average of $817 per home passed to wire neighborhoods for its FiOS fiber optic network and another $716 for equipment and labor in each home that subscribes, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.
Telecommunication Contributions?
Hero?
Who cares- her marital problems are not my concern- My Country is!
A white, old, Southerner.......hahaha!
Yeah! That shows big the GOP tent is.....hahahaha...
Barbour?
Jesus Christ, man. Are you blind? Deaf?
Look at Barbour for heaven's sake. Listen to him.
Check, too, on his relatives who got rich off Katrina. And count the Republican payoffs in his long serpentine background.
Re marital fidelity? Well, maybe he's clearn there.
But what woman would have this roly-poly
killer-diller? Though someone needs to ask.
Well, not so fast, Mark Sanford could win the "Ugliest Dog Contest" and apparently there are women desparate enough to have him (as long as he has his wife's fortune). I was taking some comfort that he had to leave the country to get laid, but read that there may be locals coming out of the woodwork, so go figure!
"Go ahead and laugh at the idea of Haley Barbour for president."
Ok...ha ha ha ha. Even funnier than your Mark Sanford plug last week. You are competing with William Kristol on who can have more of their predictions be embarassingly wrong.
Check this out Mark, a Boss Hogg impersonator from Mississippi running for president would not have even worked in the 1930s, let alone 2012.
He has so many things that don't favor him. First, the Republicans are in the worst shape that they have been in in a generation. A fat white guy from Mississippi isn't going to win over any states that Obama won in 2008 (except maybe North Carolina) and Barbour probably loses Arizona. Add to that Huckabee probably destroying Barbour in any debate (like he did Romney back in 2008). Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin will also battle for the "Evangelicals" and Social Conservatives. Romney (or even Ron Paul) will get the Fiscal Conservative vote. What does that leave Haley Barbour?
Let's also hope that he doesn't have any skeletons in his closet either. You know, any shady business deals, any ties to racist organizations, any past AFFAIRS.
In anycase, whoever survives the Republican nomination will get slaughtered in 2012. If Obama has approval ratings at 50% or more, your guys are toast. I doubt any of his opponents will have approval rating higher than 40% in 2012.
Seriously Mr. Mckinnon, I would give it a rest on predicting ANYTHING for a while. You're batting 0.00. The Republicans always nominate the person that "paid their dues", like they did to Nixon, Reagan, Dole, and Mccain (George W Bush being the exception). This time they will probably nominate Mitt Romney.
The sad thing for Republicans is that unless they find someone in the mold of Jack Kemp, they will not see the White House for a while. The guys I see out there now are all cut from the same worn out cloth. I actually kinda like Huckabee. He did lose cool points when he started hanging out at those silly Tea-bagger events.
In any case, the battle will be between Romney, Huckabee, and Palin and it will get ugly.
Actually, it was Chris Matthews who originally predicted that Haley Barbour would be John McCain's VP pick for 2008. McCaiin should have listened to him. Having said that, the last thing the Republicans need is a white southerner (no disrespect intended, only a fact), no matter how qualified, running for President against President Obama, and Barbour is clearly qualified as one of the best Governor's in the land. Just too stereotypical and a losing formula. As for McKinnon, he needs to get over his instant infactuation with some of these Republicans--but perhaps that doesn't mattter after all--for they drop like flys as soon as he identifies them as the next "great thing"...As one of the commentator's opines, "you're batting 0.00--so who cares what you think or prefer at this point--other than of course yourself and your inflated ego as self-appointed king-maker. Too funny.
Desperados overreach.
Cleary, McKinnon, you are so desperate for any kind of credibility at this point...half the readers here would not be surprised if you pushed Bernie Madoff for Secretary of Treasury.
Give it up. You're a failed folksinger. Go chase those butterflies.
Is that what McKinnon's claim to fame was - a failed folksinger. I often wondered. Thanks.
But, Mark, you didn't say, what's Barbour's religion? Exactly what denomination of Christian is he? The most important thing is, what words does he offer up, and in What Order Does He Say Them? Only then can the Republican base fully vet a man (sometimes a woman, not so much). We need to know, is his God stronger than, say, Romney's God? Religion will be a HUGE issue in the GOP primaries, because, we just have to know, whose God is better? And what will the candidate do, once in office, to get his God to crush all other lesser Gods and their heathen believers? The people demand to know.
I suspect that he worships at the church of Jack Daniels
He certainly has the red cheeks to prove his alcoholism.
You bring up an interesting point. Will the Mormon thing help or hurt Romney? Being from the south, I know how evangelicals feel about the mormon church and the stigma it carries. Any thoughts?
Oh my goodness Romney. The ultimate flip flop will spend all my family's fortune to get elected Mormon. Is that the guy? Oh goodness. That's a laugh
What a sly satire of the G.O.P! Bravo, McKinnon.
It is completely unnecessary to list the dozens of reasons why Barbour would be an horrific candidate in 2012. One look at that MM top ten list tells you the GOP is DOA in 2012. Sasha and Malia could beat any ticket from that list.
We are six months in on a four year term. Everyday that GOP "strategists" discuss impossible candidates as if they were serious contenders is a good day for Obama. Eventually the meme gets built that the GOP are certain losers. And it will be built by these brilliant "strategists."
Or perhaps MM was inspired by Governor Foghorn Leghorns oratorical style and, "I say, I say, it's a joke son. The boy's a wee bit slow on the up-take don't ya know."
This guy and his speaking "style" conjures up the Senator Claghorn image of the cartoon rooster for what I suspect are millions of us. He is a typical Southern Dupedom politician serving in Federal and State offices who are so able in convincing the mindless Dupes back home in the dusty outbacks to fornicate themselves by cheering and voting against their own economic interests and sending these Stooges out to tend to the comforts of plutocrats.
Since the posters here are spouting the usual Mississippi stuff, let me defend Governor Barbour. He's done tremendously well with what he's had to work with, more than you'll ever realize. Just having to deal with the MS House of Representatives and its speaker, Billy McCoy, would be enough to drive most people insane.
I don't think he'll ever run or even be considered for all the reasons that you loving liberals mention, but he'd probably make a good president, certainly better than the present Marxist who governs through fantasy, intimidation, and corruption.
Sorry. I must respectfully disagree. I have nothing against Mississippi. I won't stop for gas in Mississippi, but I don't have anything against MOST people there. Barbour would not make a good president. The job he's done in MS is fairly horrible. The middle class in MS is dwindling away (and was long before the recession took hold). The richest class of citizens is getting richer, but shrinking as well. The only group getting larger is the poor. Though, with the infant and child mortality rate going up so much since 2004, it may create a population balance amongst the poor.
Say what you will about Obama, he seems to genuinely care about the people of the nation; not just the country as a business. Jindal would be a much better 2012 pick than Barbour, at this point, and he doesn't stand much of a chance.
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee
You gotta love these ignorant uneducated inner bred folks don't you.
Two minor issues may get in the way....
1) He's a complete BIGOT..
2) He's a complete CROOK.
If he can buy himself out of those two holes, then we can explore all his gallivanting around with Katrina money and how that was spent.....that will take a century to litigate...your whole premise about Barber is absurd...
Plus he excluded poor families from Katrina recovery plans in Mississippi.
Thank you.
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