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Barbour vs. Obama, 2012
L to R: Mark Wilson / Getty Images, Ethan Miller / Getty Images
In the fifth in a series of posts on the 2012 landscape, former Bush and McCain strategist Mark McKinnon explains why the Mississippi governor, in the wake of the Ensign and Sanford debacles, could go all the way—and why Jenny Sanford is a potential superstar.
Read Mark McKinnon's full series on the 2012 landscape.
Go ahead and laugh at the idea of Haley Barbour for president. It’s only natural. The idea is as ridiculous as believing that Mark Sanford was actually out hiking the Appalachian Trail—which, of course, I did.
But the fun thing about politics is that the conventional wisdom so often gets thrown out the window. So laugh at the idea of candidate Barbour if you want to, but there are some interesting angles to consider.
The best thing Barbour would have going for him is that his opposition would not take him seriously.
Samuel P. Jacobs has an excellent Daily Beast report that covers Barbour’s political history, which includes: political director of the Reagan White House, co-founder of one of Washington’s most successful lobbying firms, chairman of the Republican National Committee, and governor of Mississippi.
The notion of Barbour as a serious presidential candidate seems improbable, but think about the dynamics of most presidential elections. Whenever there is a “change” election, people don’t vote for moderate change, they vote for radical change. And they generally look to someone who is the opposite of the resident of the White House at the time. Hence, George W. Bush creates the possibility of Barack Obama—just as Johnson begat Nixon, Nixon/Ford begat Carter, Carter begat Reagan, and Bush begat Clinton. In each of these cases, voters wanted the polar opposite of the man who was in office.
As talented as President Obama is, and given his fairly impressive performance so far, it’s a pretty safe bet that he will be reelected in 2012. But that makes some big assumptions, the kind of assumptions people made about George H.W. Bush in 1991, when he had approval ratings above 80 percent and everyone thought he’d be a two-term president.
So let’s take an alternative view, just for the sake of political parlor games. Let’s say things deteriorate significantly in the next couple of years: The economy slides into permanent recession. We experience a significant foreign-policy crisis with Iran or North Korea. Things go badly off the rails.
Under these circumstances, voters would likely experience some serious buyer’s remorse about Obama and look for a very different candidate. And could there be anybody more different from Obama than Barbour? An old (not young), white (not black), rotund (not skinny), former lobbyist (not former community organizer) from the Deep South, Mississippi (not the far north, Chicago).
And while most laughed at the idea of someone of Barbour’s background being elected governor, even in Mississippi, both his election and tenure since have been impressive. He balanced budgets without any tax increases after inheriting a budget deficit of $720 million; helped establish a 27.8 percent increase in per capita personal income; enacted comprehensive tort reform; and passed significant funding increases for education. Barbour was elected in 2003 with the largest voter turnout in Mississippi gubernatorial history, and he was re-elected in 2007 with 58.2 percent of the vote. He is the second governor since Reconstruction to be elected to a second consecutive term.
And Hurricane Katrina provided a true leadership litmus test. Just look at the difference in the response between Mississippi and Louisiana. Governor Kathleen Blanco was driven from office for her miserable performance. Barbour was reelected handily for his and awarded the Thomas Jefferson Freedom Award, which is presented to a nationally recognized leader by the bipartisan American Legislative Exchange Council. He was also named Governor of the Year for 2006 by Washington, D.C.-based Governing magazine.
And Barbour is a consummate campaigner. He has a finely tuned understanding of American politics. A big talent. Highly literate. Raised by a single mom. And never failed at anything he’s tried.
And the best thing he’d have going for him is that his opposition would not take him seriously.
So, with Haley’s comet lighting up the skies of New Hampshire and Iowa—and with Sanford and Ensign’s stars having crashed ignominiously to earth, it’s time once again to realign our 2012 Top 10 list (although it’s getting harder and harder to find even 10 worthy candidates):
1. Mitt Romney (given sexual escapades of last two weeks, the Mormon is looking better and better)
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. John Thune
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Sarah Palin
6. Bobby Jindal
7. Newt Gingrich
8. Haley Barbour
9. Mitch Daniels
10. Jon Huntsman
Long, ridiculous shot just for fun and because she deserves some kudos: Jenny Sanford (credit for at least one Sanford coming out of the mess looking good).
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, causes, and individuals, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today’s rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Stars Celebrate the Super Bowl
The Daily Beast is dedicated to news and commentary, culture, and entertainment. We carefully curate the web’s most essential stories and bring you original must-reads from our talented contributors.
How Rich People Smoke Pot
Paul Schrodt is a writer living in New York City. He has contributed to New York magazine, Radar, and Esquire.com.
Justice Clinton?
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Myra Adams is a media producer, writer and political observer. Her media clients have included national associations, political interest groups and corporations. She was on the creative team with Mark McKinnon that created the now infamous John Kerry "Windsurfing" ad for the Bush 2004 presidential campaign and served on the McCain Ad Council during the 2008 McCain campaign. Myra's web site www.TheJesusStore.com contributes all profits to Christian charity.
Grill Him Again!
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Not a Game-Changer
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
ShawninPhx
I agree that Mr. Barbour could be a smart choice for Republicans, but I don't think he'll get very far. The Katrina example you cite is exactly what will be his downfall.
The initial investigations in to the Katrina response by the GWB admin. showed that Gov. Barbour was receiving a lot of direction/money from the WH, while Gov. Blanco was getting the run around. Those emails from Karl Rove's office directing funds to MS, while ignoring LA are bound to be leaked out again. And, I would be surprised, if more information was released. Katrina will be Barbour's hurricane that knocks his bid off course.
Gastoecon
Could not agree more. From the rest of america that only has twitteresque attention span, Katrina is the first word association that comes with this guy.
xlntcat
The dispursement of Katrina dollars could take down Barbour or Jindal, although Barbour has probably been the most effective governor in Mississippi history, just being from Mississippi carries a stigma. Barbour is a pragmatist with well developed political acumen. He wouldn't run just to be running. He is more aware of his negatives than the average politician.
Josh-Narins
OK, far more likely, 2012 is going to come around and Obama will have decent poll numbers, good enough that it will be an uphill battle for the Republican.
Without a Democratic primary, and with prospects dim for a change in White House resident, only the most excitable portions of the GOP base will be picking their candidate. Whether that happens to be the Southern(Barbour), the Sagebrush(Romney), or Evangelical(Huckabee) is to early to divine.
Saw Pawlenty this weekend on the TV. Hard to imagine him getting nominated by the Republicans.
b2brian
I refuse to vote for anyone that has actually won an election in Minnesota
foxbat91
A return to fat white ex-lobbysists as our leadership figures isn't exactly a change...
Also isn't it depressing that Bobby Jindal, he of "volcano research is unnecessary and exorcisms are simply a reasonable way of removing the many demons that try to bring the devil into one's soul, is still at 6 on that list?
alex02139
Let's remember that McKinnon thought Dubya was "the real deal" too, and helped get Bush elected twice. Don't be shocked to learn that professional shill McKinnon is now getting paid by Barbour. Mississippi governor Barbour is the epitome of the Southern cracker culture warrior with no vision for the future and trapped in the racist past. In that sense, he and McKinnon are perfect together.
biglover
Yes, I am in total agreement alex. I saw McKinnon this morning on MSNBC and I heard him say this. I almost lost my breakfast. I think McKinnon is in denial.
ChickenboneWill
Haley Barbour,a slow-talkin,mouth full of sh*t, money grubbing Republican con artist would be a perfect pick for certain defeat in 2012. Bring on that good-ole boy and his racist mentality to guarantee certain defeat!
Read the following article, it gives you an good idea of what a slime-ball Barbour is:
nttimes.com/1997/07/25/no-dice-haley.html
enkidusshade
oh, christ. haley barbour. haley. barbour. haley freaking barbour?!
sure, his record sounds impressive, especially coming from a lying douchebag. "27.8% increase in per capita income". wow. you don't say. really. o rly? let's try this on for size:
haley was elected in 2003 and took a state with a worst in the nation 19.6% poverty rate and moved it... to a 22.6% poverty rate in 2007. he led the state from having 16.8% of the population having no insurance to 19.8% having no health insurance. and income? well, per capita income, which is the statewide average, looks great. but median income , which is the income most people actually make, how did that do? well, in 2003 it was 50th out of 50 states for median income and in 2007 it was... wait for it... 50th out of 50 states. and of course, there was also the increase in infant mortality haley personally engineered when he threw all those poor children (and i don't mean poor as in i feel sorry for them, i mean poor as in they have no money) off state insurance. sanctity of life, indeed.
so let's see, rich get richer, poor get poorer and sicker, and most everyone in the middle sees things stay the same. if you need someone to run the country like a south american bananna plantation, haley's your guy. viva el cerdo!
if a national party, any party, could look at haley's record and decide that's what we need more of in this country, we are truly f'ed.
*p.s. if anyone knows mckinnon's email, please ask him to spend 10 minutes googling the following phrases:
"median income by state"
"poverty by state"
"mississippi infant mortality"
laziness is no excuse for spreading misinformation.
NDSquid25
Well said.
Pupster
Aesthetics counts. So having this Bubba-talking, red-faced bloated balloon as the GOP rep is just fine for us. The Obama camp will likely be thrilled. Barbour can have the Confederate good ol'boy cracker vote; everyone else will flock to Obama's side.
(Can you imagine Barbour even attempting to give a speech like Obama did in Cairo? Let the GOP implosion continue...)
whowudathunkit
Barbour has many strings to his bow and one thing is certain. The only appology he would ever have to make, as representative of the American people whilst in Cairo or elsewhere, is for a....holes like you!
PacificNWMark
That Barbour has any chance is simply a testament to how far the GOP needs to come to approach credibility again.
I fear McKinnon's credibility is evaporating at a rather rapid rate as well. Maybe he should take some time off? Hiking, perhaps?
lifegrinder
Hiking would certainly launch him as a potential presidential candidate.
Autopilot
Don't worry about McKinnon's credibility. The public's memory lasts as long as the last scandal involving zippers and hormones. We'll never suffer an interruption in his feverish bloviations, and we'll keep responding to him as if he has something serious to say. It's a theater of the absurd. And I'm right here reading and commenting along with everyone else. Tina's a genius - giving us this sandbox so we don't go out on the highways, or the taverns, and create mayhem. Better, though, to take up needlepoint. You get something useful at the end.
biglover
I love the "sandbox" analogy. Good one. I agree - McKinnon is worthless and what makes it worse, he doesn't even believe his own drivel.
sippewissett
Sorry but McKinnon's argument doesn't hold water. Barbour has a lot of skeletons in his closet that will come out, come nomination time...or in the next month if he continues to be the "GOP Flavor of the Month" for a run at the presidency in 2012. He'd be wise to duck instead of joining the Jindal, Gingrich, Palin, Limbaugh, Romney "hall of shame."
Forgive me, Mississippi, but I'm not looking to you to be the state we should look up to. Your education system still s*cks, there's rampant discrimination and you aren't exactly noted for "forward-thinking." Babour is a HARD sell this year or any year; he's just another aging white guy from the south.
Of course there's always the argument that the GOP loves him so pair him up with Palin and make a run at the presidency. It will be worth the laughs.
lifegrinder
If this is really the best that the Republicans can muster Dems will coast in 2012.
nycwerewolf
Here are a list of reasons as to why McKinnon is wrong again
Barbour problems (thinkprogress list):
"Family members and lobbyists profited from Katrina tragedy: "Among the beneficiaries are Barbour's own family and friends, who have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars from hurricane-related business. A nephew, one of two who are lobbyists, saw his fees more than double in the year after his uncle appointed him to a special reconstruction panel."
"Owned controlling interest in 2002 New Hampshire phone jamming company: For nearly two hours on election day 2002, subcontractors for the telemarketing firm GOP Marketplace tied-up Democratic and union phone banks with repeated hang up calls. Multiple GOP officials eventually either pled guilty to or were convicted of criminally violating federal communications law. Barbour's investment group, Helm Partners, was not only a major investor in GOP Marketplace, but it also held a controlling interest in the firm."
"As a lobbyist, he represented firm indicted in Tom DeLay's money laundering scandal: As a lobbyist for Barbour Griffith & Rogers, Barbour represented The Alliance for Quality Nursing Home Care Inc., "a corporate coalition of 14 of the country's largest for-profit nursing home companies." The Alliance wrote a check for $100,000 "ended up illegally funding Republican candidates for the Texas statehouse" in 2002. The check was eventually used as evidence in the case that led to indictments for money laundering against former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX)."
"A former tobacco lobbyist, he killed Mississippi's successful anti-smoking program: From 1998 to 2002, Barbour's lobbying firm "was paid a total of $3.8 million by the tobacco companies." As governor of Mississippi, he led an effort to defund and ultimately kill the state's anti-smoking program, considered to be "the nation's most successful anti-smoking programs."
"Directed large amounts of reconstruction funds to wealthy homeowners: Barbour and Mississippi's two Republican Senators steered an "unprecedented" $23.5 billion in federal reconstruction aid, but by waiving a HUD requirement that "70 percent of the funds are supposed to be allocated to low- and moderate-income people." Barbour "badly skewed" the funds towards "wealthy homeowners," with only 25 percent reaching "the poorer segments of the population."
ChickenboneWill
I made a mistake in my blog with the web address @ 9:35. The second letter should y instead of t. The article will give a great insight to what Barbour is all about, himself!
idicula1979
I find as a rule of thumb it is best to think exactly the opposite of what Mark McKinnon thinks. (And also not to try to predict the future 3 years out)
sasha2008
I want to know why Gov Barber imported labor from West Africa to work in your casinos and not his own residents.
What happened to all that money from the casinos profits that were supposed to go to increase education in your state Governor? This is why casinos were allowed - for the sake of your education?
Where is the money Mr. Barber?
Why did you import labor?
What is your unemployment rate?
What have you done for your people in Mississippi?
What is the ranking of education in your state?
Why are people in the Delta living in the poorest poverty level in the USA?
What about Greenville governor? Or any other ignored Katrina town - away from the casinos on the Gulf Coast of course?
Many questions Barber-
So much corruption - so many questions?
sasha2008
Who is the Hero of South Carolinians?
"He would have never won either of his governor's races without her -- no way," said Will Folks, Sanford's spokesman from 2001 to 2005. "She ran the show. He pointed the direction he wanted to go, and she was the bulldozer that cleared the path and got him there."
Who is the 'philandering politician'?
"His career is not a concern of mine," Jenny Sanford told reporters camped at the end of her driveway as she left with her boys for a boat ride the other day. "He's going to have to worry about that. I'm worried about my family and the character of my children."
Her husband has been staying in the governor's mansion in Columbia since she kicked him out a few weeks ago.
When did she find out about the affair? A few weeks ago?
'...but that she asked him to leave because it was "important to look my sons in the eyes and maintain my dignity, self-respect and my basic sense of right and wrong."'
Guess that concern was a tough decision for her, since she learned of this more than a few weeks ago.
Sullivan's Island?
What is the average income of residents on Sullivan's Island- compare that to the population of SC?
South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis made a name for himself in the late 1990s as one of Bill Clinton's most zealous pursuers, an impeachment "manager" who attacked the moral failings of the president with a gusto that earned him a devoted following in the staunchly conservative "Upstate" of conservative South Carolina.
This is the most revealing part of Rep. Bob Inglis statement:
His last conversation with Gov. Mark Sanford was about the hundreds of millions of dollars in stimulus money that the uncompromising governor was trying to refuse for his impoverished state. Inglis had voted against President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus bill, ardently, he said.
But he said he told the governor, now that it was approved, "for goodness sake, take the money." It might just help.
All of the hoopla and wasted time- on our country's time - while we were at the brink of disaster
Amazing! Country First?
What is the unemployment is SC?
The unemployment rate, for South Carolinians almost 12%!
He emailed his mistress stating internet connection is NO GOOD at his farm, in South Carolina.
When you hear Obama talk about Broadband from coast to coast - 'FOR ALL' - this is what he is talking about.
Does he care that rural South Carolina has unreliable internet.
Apparently- he - like John McCain- could care less. If we all followed John McCain's lead- then none of us would be here posting!
How long have computers been in America- for consumer use?
Why did the Leader, John McCain never bother to learn how to use a computer?
Could anyone imagine if all Americans followed his lead?
No wonder-
It seems America does not care either that we are far behind as country!
After all - it is not Country First it is Business First!
Enjoy!
April 3, 2009
World's Fastest Broadband at $20 Per Home
By Saul Hansell
If you get excited about the prospect of really, really fast broadband Internet service, here's a statistic that will make heart race. Or your blood boil. Or both.
Pretty much the fastest consumer broadband in the world is the 160-megabit-per-second service offered by J:Com, the largest cable company in Japan. Here's how much the company had to invest to upgrade its network to provide that speed: $20 per home passed.
The cable modem needed for that speed costs about $60, compared with about $30 for the current generation.
By contrast, Verizon is spending an average of $817 per home passed to wire neighborhoods for its FiOS fiber optic network and another $716 for equipment and labor in each home that subscribes, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.
Telecommunication Contributions?
Hero?
Who cares- her marital problems are not my concern- My Country is!
Thank you.
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