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Reza Aslan

The Mullahs' Secret Battle

BS Top - Aslan Iran AP Photo The uprising's power struggle has shifted from the streets to the backrooms of the government. But The Daily Beast's Reza Aslan writes that, despite rumors, demonstrators are hardly giving up.

Plus, read more insight on Iran's election from other Daily Beast writers.

Rumors of the demise of Iran’s uprising may be premature. On Sunday, thousands of protesters, including Mousavi’s wife, Zahra Rahnavard and some family members of Ahmadinejad's bête noire, Hashemi Rafsanjani, marched through the streets of northern Tehran chanting, “Where is my vote?”

(You can see a video of the rally here.)

The presence of the prominent women in the rally, including Rafsanjani’s outspoken daughter, Faezeh, who founded Iran’s most popular feminist magazine, Zan (banned by the government in 1999), seems to have left the police and security personnel outnumbered and unsure how to respond. Mousavi himself addressed the crowd, by cellphone—his voice, thin and grainy, amplified by a megaphone.

The fate of Iran depends on which way the clerical establishment falls.

Earlier in the day, Mousavi posted a statement on his Web site urging his followers not to give in to the “lies and fraud” perpetrated against the Iranian people but to show restraint and practice nonviolent tactics in their demonstrations. “The revolution is your legacy,” he wrote. “Be hopeful that you will get your right and do not allow others who want to provoke your anger... to prevail.”

However, despite continuing protests in Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Mashad, it is clear that the power struggle inside Iran has shifted from the streets to the backrooms of the government. Indeed, the sheer brutality of the crackdown on protesters has polarized Iranian politics at all levels, forcing Iran’s political and religious elites to take sides.

Yesterday, Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intensified his criticism of both Ahmadinejad and the tactics of the security forces allied with the Revolutionary Guard. Larijani vowed to form a committee to investigate reports of abuse perpetrated against peaceful Iranian demonstrators.

Larijani had previously accused the Guardian Council of siding with Ahmadinejad before the elections, an implicit allegation of election fraud. “Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals,” Larijani told the IRIB, Iran’s official broadcasting agency, “I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate.” Ahmadinejad’s allies in parliament, rattled by Larijani’s comments, are now calling for his impeachment, an unlikely scenario given the speaker’s close ties with Khamenei, but yet another indication of the deep divisions that have formed inside Iran’s government.

Meanwhile, in comments broadcast Sunday on state television, Khamenei struck a softer tone than he did in his Friday address last week when speaking of the protesters. “I urge both sides not to provoke the sentiments of the youth and refrain from pitting people against each other. This united nation should not be divided, and groups should not be provoked to act against each other. There are legal ways for resolving issues.”

Khamenei’s first public statements in a week seemed timed to correspond with Rafsanjani’s first public appearance since the election. Praising the decision by Khamenei to extend an obviously meaningless deadline for Iran’s Guardian Council to investigate allegations of electoral fraud, Rafsanjani said he hoped that “the authorities in charge are able to investigate all legal challenges with cooperation of candidates and in keeping with utmost accuracy, honesty, and fairness.”

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June 29, 2009 | 8:08am
Comments ()
drmarkklein

The regime is finished.

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10:57 am, Jun 29, 2009
Zugzwang

I truly hope that's so, but it's probably better to take a "wait and see" approach for now. It's sounding more dire every day, and the guys with the guns don't seem to be breaking away from Amahdi and Khameini.

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2:21 pm, Jun 29, 2009
speekup

Thank you Reza Aslan for whatever continuing coverage or thoughts you might offer about the situation presently developing in Iran. Any greater understanding of the dynamics of this fateful power struggle is appreciated.

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12:45 pm, Jun 29, 2009
onein7billion

What is the role going forward of continued street protests? Will players in gov't of Iran continue to address these issues without further public demonstration? If further demonstrations by the people are needed, who will call for them? Not sure why but Mousavi is not coming across as a leader of a mass movement - maybe he is being prevented from doing so. What are the implications of this apparent lack of leadership for the energies among the people, where those energies will be directed, and how effectively? What is the probability that new leadership will arise from the ranks of the (secular, tech-savvy, energized, globally-connected) youth? With demographics like Iran's, seems the time might be ripe for that. Please excuse if my lens is distorted on this - born and raised in US.

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1:21 pm, Jun 29, 2009
garryboyle

This is fascinating stuff.

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2:54 pm, Jun 29, 2009
ali1995

Reza, what happened to what your "sources" told you just 3 days ago? Of the imminent "deal"? Care to apologize to your readers for such a shoddy treatment of the crisis in Iran before you dish out more gossip?

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5:57 am, Jun 30, 2009
HamidBorhani

Great question...I don't usually have a big problem with Reza's writings but that one was way off the wall when I first read it.

Iranian mullah's getting ready to endorse a run-off election???? How disconnected must you be from Iran to even repeat such non-sense from a savage regime intent on staying in power.

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5:07 pm, Jun 30, 2009
ali1995

You wrote: "Either way, it now appears likely that the fate of Iran depends on which way the clerical establishment falls."

This should be enough for your readers to determine that you really have little idea what you are talking about. If you think the clerics will give up the power and authority they have gained since the revolution began -- and yes, I include here those who did not agree with the principle of velayat-e faqih -- then you really have no clue. The only way the clerics will give up their hold on power is over their dead bodies.

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6:00 am, Jun 30, 2009
TheDailyJban

So if the Clerics or Khamenei do not control the Guard, then, who does?

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9:36 am, Jun 30, 2009
shanell

Reza I was intrigued by your story and am intersted in talking with you about your thoughts on weather or not the shock of Micheal Jacksons death has resonated in any way with the strong youth movement in Iran. Please contact me with your thoughts at shanell.oliver@nbcuni.com

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10:39 am, Jun 30, 2009
JimGerofsky

Professor Aslan, I appreciate your continuing coverage of the situation in Iran. The American attention span is unfortunately quite short -- our media was diverted so quickly and so completely by Michael Jackson's death. If the Revolutionary Guard is able to consolidate its grip on Iran, the consequences for the Middle East and for the West could be quite severe.

I look forward to your continuing insightful analysis of the Iranian political situation as it proceeds to unfold. Please help us to understand the Guard better; who are the power figures, what are their goals, what are their inspirations, how strong is their position on the "great chessboard of power" versus the clerics, is Ahmadinejad considered a leader or a follower by the Guard (you indicate that Khamenei is looking more and more like their patsy), etc. We westerners need to know those things a good bit more than we need to know the details of Michael Jackson's will.

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4:51 pm, Jul 2, 2009
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The Mullahs' Secret Battle

by Reza Aslan

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