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The Mullahs' Secret Battle
The oddly conciliatory and seemingly coordinated statements by the two men, who by all accounts loathe each other and have been working to bring the other down during this entire crisis, may indicate that while the deal to stave off a crisis by allowing a runoff election between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad may have fallen through (thanks largely, it appears, to the rejection of the proposal by the Revolutionary Guard), there may still be an effort under way to find a compromise that would satisfy both Khamenei and Rafsanjani.
Either way, it now appears likely that the fate of Iran depends on which way the clerical establishment falls. If they can be convinced that the rise of the Revolutionary Guard is a threat to their stewardship of the Islamic republic, then they will side with the reformers aligned with Rafsanjani and Mousavi, if for no other reason than to remain significant. In that case, Iran may begin to resemble China, a country ruled by an oligarchy but with greater freedoms for its people and open to the international community.
If, however, the clerics side with Khamenei, who every day looks more like an aged patsy of the Revolutionary Guard, then Iran could conceivably become a military state akin to North Korea or Myanmar.
Still, the late-night call-and-response of Allah-u Akbar, or “God is Great,” continues to bounce from rooftop to rooftop, increasingly punctuated with the call of “Death to Khamenei!”
Reza Aslan, a contributor to The Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at U.C. Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
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Reza Aslan, a contributor to the Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
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Reza Aslan, a contributor to the Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
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Reza Aslan, a contributor to the Daily Beast, is assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside and senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at UC Santa Barbara. He is the author of the bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War.
The regime is finished.
I truly hope that's so, but it's probably better to take a "wait and see" approach for now. It's sounding more dire every day, and the guys with the guns don't seem to be breaking away from Amahdi and Khameini.
Thank you Reza Aslan for whatever continuing coverage or thoughts you might offer about the situation presently developing in Iran. Any greater understanding of the dynamics of this fateful power struggle is appreciated.
What is the role going forward of continued street protests? Will players in gov't of Iran continue to address these issues without further public demonstration? If further demonstrations by the people are needed, who will call for them? Not sure why but Mousavi is not coming across as a leader of a mass movement - maybe he is being prevented from doing so. What are the implications of this apparent lack of leadership for the energies among the people, where those energies will be directed, and how effectively? What is the probability that new leadership will arise from the ranks of the (secular, tech-savvy, energized, globally-connected) youth? With demographics like Iran's, seems the time might be ripe for that. Please excuse if my lens is distorted on this - born and raised in US.
This is fascinating stuff.
Reza, what happened to what your "sources" told you just 3 days ago? Of the imminent "deal"? Care to apologize to your readers for such a shoddy treatment of the crisis in Iran before you dish out more gossip?
Great question...I don't usually have a big problem with Reza's writings but that one was way off the wall when I first read it.
Iranian mullah's getting ready to endorse a run-off election???? How disconnected must you be from Iran to even repeat such non-sense from a savage regime intent on staying in power.
You wrote: "Either way, it now appears likely that the fate of Iran depends on which way the clerical establishment falls."
This should be enough for your readers to determine that you really have little idea what you are talking about. If you think the clerics will give up the power and authority they have gained since the revolution began -- and yes, I include here those who did not agree with the principle of velayat-e faqih -- then you really have no clue. The only way the clerics will give up their hold on power is over their dead bodies.
So if the Clerics or Khamenei do not control the Guard, then, who does?
Reza I was intrigued by your story and am intersted in talking with you about your thoughts on weather or not the shock of Micheal Jacksons death has resonated in any way with the strong youth movement in Iran. Please contact me with your thoughts at shanell.oliver@nbcuni.com
Professor Aslan, I appreciate your continuing coverage of the situation in Iran. The American attention span is unfortunately quite short -- our media was diverted so quickly and so completely by Michael Jackson's death. If the Revolutionary Guard is able to consolidate its grip on Iran, the consequences for the Middle East and for the West could be quite severe.
I look forward to your continuing insightful analysis of the Iranian political situation as it proceeds to unfold. Please help us to understand the Guard better; who are the power figures, what are their goals, what are their inspirations, how strong is their position on the "great chessboard of power" versus the clerics, is Ahmadinejad considered a leader or a follower by the Guard (you indicate that Khamenei is looking more and more like their patsy), etc. We westerners need to know those things a good bit more than we need to know the details of Michael Jackson's will.
Thank you.
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