The Way to Break the Climate Deadlock

Renaissance of nuclear power will need a big expansion of qualified scientists and engineers. Electric vehicles will need large adjustments to infrastructure. Smart grid systems can enable big savings in emissions but there has to be a plan for putting them into effect. These will take time but require investment now. Meanwhile, in the short term, low-energy lighting and efficient industrial motors may sound obvious but we are nowhere near using them as extensively as we could.

The point is this: We know what we need to do and we have the tools available to achieve our goals. The MEF leaders can therefore have confidence in adopting the interim and long-term targets recommended by the scientific community: keeping warming to below 2 degrees Celsius; peaking emissions within the next decade; and at least halving global emissions by 2050 versus 1990. Developed countries will be able to commit to reducing their emissions by 80 percent versus 1990 by mid-century, as many have already done, and provide the necessary financial and technology support for developing-country adaptation and mitigation efforts. With that support, developing countries in turn will need to design and implement “low-carbon growth plans” that significantly slow and eventually peak their emissions growth.

By making these commitments, the MEF leaders, representing over three-quarters of global emissions, would lay a firm foundation for success in Copenhagen. Between L’Aquila and Copenhagen there will be undoubtedly be difficult discussions over interim targets for developed countries.

But, while such targets are undoubtedly important, what really matters is agreement on the measures that ultimately will set the world on a new path to a low-carbon future. For years, and rightly, the emphasis has been on persuading people there has to be “a will” to tackle climate change. For the leaders, struggling to cope with this challenge even amid the economic crisis, they need to know there is also “a way.” It is the combination of the two that will succeed. Fortunately such a way—immensely challenging but nonetheless doable—exists.

Tony Blair is founder of the Breaking the Climate Deadlock initiative to work for a new global deal for a low-carbon future and the former prime minister of Great Britain.