Blogs and Stories
Hollywood vs. Leno
Many in Hollywood are hopeful Jay Leno fails. The reason? His show signals the end of the good old days for anyone who isn’t a comic, says Kim Masters.
The new Jay Leno Show finally premiered Monday night, and oh, how passionately many in Hollywood are rooting for him to fail.
They know it won’t happen right away. Leno is taking a running start, a week before the other broadcast networks roll out their fall programming. Viewers will check out the new and much-publicized show. And when it comes to defining success, NBC has set the bar down there, right next to your ankles.
But given time, Hollywood surely hopes for the opportunity to spin Leno as a failure—because this experiment pisses a lot of people off. Their world is changing—has already changed, really—in the vise of the economy and new technology. By putting Leno in prime time five nights a week, NBC is proclaiming that the old paradigms are dying and the good old days are gone for good.
Who’s the Next Leno? Click Image to View Our Gallery
This threatens pretty much everyone in the business who isn’t a comic: executives, agents, writers, actors—even the madmen on Madison Avenue are mad. And it’s not just that they’re running scared about the future of their business; it’s the injustice of it all. The industry must watch while NBC claims to be blazing a trail when, in the majority view, it is simply failing—again. The network has used this tactic for years, ever since the dominant Thursday-night lineup anchored by Friends sank.
Even Leno seems to be pissed off. When reporters asked last month whether he felt pressure to “save” NBC, he answered, “The network is on its own. Screw them.” A couple of weeks later, Leno seemed to gloat when he told reporters that if his show fails, NBC might just have to “go back to Lipstick Jungle.” And that does seem to sum it up: NBC Universal entertainment chairman Jeff Gaspin told The Wall Street Journal last week that if the Leno show doesn’t work, “to say that I have a clear backup plan would be exaggerating."
But what makes the whole situation especially provoking is this time NBC may not be wrong. It’s been a long time since one of the networks launched a hit drama at 10 p.m., and the competition becomes more daunting all the time. They don’t just have to deal with competition from cable channels and on-demand viewing—the “DVR channel” is gradually spreading to more and more homes. Fred Silverman, who at varying times ran NBC, CBS, and ABC, believes NBC will do sufficiently well with the Leno show that other broadcast networks will have to put cheap programming—not costly dramas—at 10 p.m., too.
• Jon Caramanica: The Other LenosMany who work in and around the industry hope that doesn’t happen. “I don’t see this as a paradigm shift,” says Shari Anne Brill of the ad-buying firm Carat. The Leno strategy may work for NBC, Brill says, but she doesn’t think CBS and ABC will have to follow suit. NBC hasn’t changed the business, in other words; it has simply given up any hope of returning to dominance. This fall, she observes, “NBC is programming the same number of scripted hours as the CW.”
And a former studio chief says it’s silly to abandon scripted shows at 10 p.m. NBC may save money, he says, but what is it giving up? A successful drama can sell into syndication and overseas, he says, while Leno cannot. So comparing the cost of Leno to the cost of scripted programming is “not honest.” And while the Leno show may be cheap, so are the ad rates. At this point, NBC is selling commercial time in the Leno show for about half of what it would get for a spot in a scripted hour.
And there are risks beyond prime time. As anyone who cares must already know, five nights of Leno could undercut local news on the network affiliates. It could erode the once-dominant Tonight Show. Leno has already blasted away at NBC’s claim that Conan O’Brien is the “new king of late night.” NBC’s spin have been that lower ratings don’t matter as long as the show draws a younger demographic; when Time magazine asked Leno about that logic, he laughed and said, “Whatever you want! Whatever works for you, babe. ‘Sure, honey, you look thin!’”
Only time will tell whether NBC looks thin—or a little too thin. Leno may sink or surge or just kind of lie there. The broadcast model may be doomed, or it may function for years to come yet. The only sure thing is that as NBC unveils the Leno show, many in Hollywood will be wondering for whom the chimes toll.
Kim Masters covers the entertainment business for The Daily Beast. She is also the host of The Business, public radio's weekly program about the business of show business. She is also the author of The Keys to the Kingdom: The Rise of Michael Eisner and the Fall of Everybody Else.
For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.
The Right Dumps Carrie
Jacob Bernstein is a senior reporter at The Daily Beast. Previously, he was a features writer at WWD and W Magazine. He has also written for New York magazine, Paper, and The Huffington Post.
What's Joe's Problem?
Lloyd Grove is editor at large for The Daily Beast. He is also a frequent contributor to New York magazine and was a contributing editor for Condé Nast Portfolio. He wrote a gossip column for the New York Daily News from 2003 to 2006. Prior to that, he wrote the Reliable Source column for the Washington Post, where he spent 23 years covering politics, the media, and other subjects.
Geithner's Stock Plummeting
Jeff Madrick is a contributor to the New York Review of Books and a former economics columnist for the New York Times. He is editor of Challenge Magazine, visiting professor of humanities at Cooper Union, and senior fellow at the New School's Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. He is the author of Taking America, The End of Affluence (Random House) and The Case for Big Government.
Oprah Changes Channels
Kim Masters covers the entertainment business for The Daily Beast. She is also the host of The Business, public radio's weekly program about the business of show business. She is also the author of The Keys to the Kingdom: The Rise of Michael Eisner and the Fall of Everybody Else.
New Moon Rises Over Hollywood
Kim Masters covers the entertainment business for The Daily Beast. She is also the host of The Business, public radio's weekly program about the business of show business. She is also the author of The Keys to the Kingdom: The Rise of Michael Eisner and the Fall of Everybody Else.
Meet the Movie Theater of the Future
Kim Masters covers the entertainment business for The Daily Beast. She is also the host of The Business, public radio's weekly program about the business of show business. She is also the author of The Keys to the Kingdom: The Rise of Michael Eisner and the Fall of Everybody Else.
Ms. Masters is clearly one of the few savvy writers on this topic. The future of NBC may be FOX. If Leno fails 10-11P will go to the affiliates. 10P News is making loads of money for FOX stations. Some of NBC's affiliates are probably rooting for Leno to fail too.
That is fascinating to me. Who watches (let alone advertises on) local news anymore? I guess people do?
I was never big on local news anyway, but with internet-available news, it seems like an anachronism.
It always bears repeating that, though they lack Hollywood's economic interest in the matter, there is a great mass of people desperately hoping Leno will fail because they oppose sub-mediocre comedy
I always loved to watch Jay, and I hope he succeeds. Nothing mediocre about him.
Well,this article might be right on target. But Jay Leno,is a great entertainer, a decent guy,if he fails,its the times, the changes,in generations,the computers ,the internet,and I wish him luck.Maybe that is what is wrong,everyone devouring each other, and not enjoying if someone else is entertaining.!!
amapola101
You still think Leno is A DECENT GUY, having West on tonight ? What if Taylor was your child getting an award, and West did that to her.
I think some of you missed the point. The aging of America and/or the 24/7 world we live in could be driving the potential success Leno will have. Prime time going through until 11 is not meeting the sleep or life-style needs of many. Nightly news in some markets is now available at 10. They are "getting it". Why shouldn't late night TV become available earlier too? I can't make it to 11:30 any more and like to wrap my pre-sleep time up with a chuckle or two rather than terror on the streets!
Good point. I HATE watching the local police blotter, er news, before turning in for the night.
Kim,
WHY exactly is it that Hollywood is rooting for Leno's failure?
I would have liked to have seen some more explanation than simply Leno and NBC represent the changing of paradigms. That doesn't seem to be a real reason for hoping someone fails.
Was Hollywood this paranoid during the era of variety shows
in the sixties, seventies ?
Call it the return of the variety show.
There's always a place for sitcoms.
Everything cycles around.
I wasn't aware of how stridently Leno had been taking shots at NBC. Maybe I'm not up on the current corporate arrangement - is NBC broadcast television different than NBC Universal? - and which was and is Jay working for? (Still, he's mocking the hand that feeds him by saying things like "they might have to bring back Lipstick Jungle" if he doesn't make it).
Either way, it seems a little out of character for Leno to be taking such direct shots at NBC, Conan and the Tonight Show. For anyone else, I'd write them off as a classless egomaniac.
That Leno can get away with lambasting his own network and former show is a testament to the enormous amount of goodwill he has built up with American viewers over the years. I don't even watch late night TV (other than clips on the internet or the rare Friday night), but I'll try to catch Leno when I can just to support the guy and 'cause he is such a hail fellow well met.
It's not like Leno is replacing successful shows. If Hollywood doesn't like it, rather than hoping he fails, they need to use their creativity to come up with something even better. I look forward to it because this type of comedy lends itself to multi-tasking/watching.
I am looking forward to seeing the Fast lap on the track next to the studio. A idea he got from BBC Top Gear's Star In A Reasonably Priced Car.
NBC would have to pay ME to watch this blathering fool 5 nights a week. I can barely stand to watch him for 5 minutes. If this is their "plan" to save themselves, you may as well dump the NBC stock right now. Ain't gonna happen.
Like Leno or not,
10 p.m. is a dead zone.
He's going to kill in the ratings.
Replacing scripted comedy shows or cop/doctor shows with unscripted comedy? Who cares, what's the point?
Primetime has been dumbed-down to the lowest common denominator now.
From what I can tell, all Leno is doing is taking his skits from the Tonight Show and expending them to primetime. Yawn! Yawn! Yawn!
The Major networks have Major problems because they refuse to put any adult programming on the air. And by "adult" I mean programming that is created specifically for people with educations above GED.
The networks have to get beyond the 1950s culture of not offending anyone and catering to 6th grade reading levels. Otherwise the public airwaves will continue to be meaningless.
Come to think of it, the better idea would be to eliminate free over-the-air TV and repurpose that VHF and UHF radio spectrum to wireless internet. That would make it much easier to download my adult content.
"By putting Leno in prime time five nights a week, NBC is proclaiming that the old paradigms are dying and the good old days are gone for good." Isn't Leno the good old days? He ain't new. And giving him a show in primetime proclaims WHAT? Could somebody please explain this to me? My head hurts from trying to parse this article. Help, anyone?
Agreed. I think Leno will be successful in terms of leading the ratings at 10:00. I enjoyed watching him, think he's a terrific guy and funny (something that Conan is finding is more of a stretch at 11:30 than the nutty hour of 12:30-1:30).
But I do think the show may struggle over time--especially if the other networks actually try to compete--because there is not likely to be much new or original about it. If advertising rates really are significantly lower for the 10:00 slot for a talk show than for presumably "appointment" television dramas, then the already unrealistic expectations of Leno "saving the network" are going to be even harsher when he can't meet them. And is 10:00 really "prime time"?
Please allow me to go out on a very long limb, here, and say that I believe that Leno's new show will, in fact, be a success!
I say this because, looking at the new Fall schedule, there seems to be a lot of look-alike crime dramas and me-too shows that I, for a sample of one, am getting very tired of.
I intend to check into Leno tonight and I may change my forecast. But, for now I'm going with a 'success'. Sorry Hollywood!
Doesn't matter to me - I'll be watching the Daily Show and the Colbert Report as usual.
Leno is keeping the same, bland format he's been using for years. What's actually new here, other than his 10 p.m. time slot (not including some bit he apparently stole from BBC's Top Gear)? Jaywalking, headlines, bad monologues.
It could still be a hit, but only because Baby Boomers can tune in before their early bedtimes. There's a huge trade-off for NBC: Conan's ratings will immediately suffer. This show steals older viewers from the Tonight Show demographic.
i think alot of the commentary about jay's new show/time slot
misses the point: it's not "live comedy" vs."scripted" shows, it's sane economics vs. cost/salary madness.
remember that last, incredible contract the "friends" stars
coerced out of nbc--how many millions per episode did each of them extort? it's those days that are gone forever.
just like hollywood won't be giving brat pitt or tom cruise
$30 million per picture upfront anymore; the networks will be looking to cable series budgets as role models: e.g.,
do you think think tim hutton is getting a million per for
"leverage"?
Jay is still going to have that jerk Kanye West on tonight after what West did to Taylor last night. I lost respect for "NICE" guy Leno .He is just another money ,ratings ,grabber .
Young girl like Taylor being hurt by that asshole , and Leno wants him .
I hope the show fails .
Everyone wants to follow the trends, and no one wants to leave. I watch virtually no traditional "network" shows on CBS, NBC or ABC. There's nothing there that appeals to me. So by choice, I end up on USA, AMC, HBO, Showtime or some other CABLE channel for scripted television. In the 500 channel universe, the old-time networks are irrelevant.
As for Leno's experimental new show, I'm among the millions who wouldn't want to spend five minutes with that odious gasbag, let alone five nights a week. I don't know a single person who's interested in the Jay Leno Show.
This makes me want to watch the Leno show, which I probably wouldn't have done otherwise. Screw the suits.
Thank you.
As a first time user, your comment has been submitted for review. It can take anywhere from a few hours to a day or two for your comment to be reviewed, depending on the time of week and the volume of comments we receive.
Please log in to leave comments.