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How Obama Flubbed His Missile Message
Is the fallout as bad if Israel preemptively strikes Iran?
Absolutely. That is the way, more importantly, how the Iranians would view it. They really can’t do much to the Israelis, despite all their bluster. The only thing they can do is unify themselves, especially nationalistically, to rally against us, and the mullahs might even think of it as a blessing.
How aggressive can Obama be in insisting to the Israelis that a military strike might be in America’s worst interest?
We are not exactly impotent little babies. They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch?
What if they fly over anyway?
Well, we have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren’t just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not. No one wishes for this but it could be a Liberty in reverse. [Israeli jet fighters and torpedo boats attacked the USS Liberty in international waters, off the Sinai Peninsula, during the Six-Day War in 1967. Israel later claimed the ship was the object of friendly fire.]
Did it surprise you that it took the Obama administration so long to do away with the missile-defense program? Is he setting firm lines that can’t be crossed, such as with Iran and Israel?
Well, Obama has been very impressive in refining our policy toward the world on a lot of issues, very impressive. But he has been relatively much less impressive in the follow-through.
You mean his policy sounds ideal but the follow-up isn’t good?
Not as precise, clear-cut, and forthcoming as would be desirable.
What would you like have seen already from this administration?
By now we should have been able to formulate a clearer posture on what we are prepared to do to promote a Palestinian-Israeli peace. Simply giving a frequent-traveler ticket to George Mitchell is not the same thing as policy. It took a long time to get going on Iran, but there is an excuse there, the Iranian domestic mess. And we are now eight months into the administration, and I would have thought by now we could have formulated a strategy that we would have considered “our” strategy for dealing with Iran and Pakistan. For example, the Carter administration, which is sometimes mocked, by now had in motion a policy of disarmament with the Russians, which the Russians didn’t like, but eventually bought; it had started a policy of normalization with the Chinese; it rammed through the Panama Canal treaty; and it was moving very, very openly toward an Israeli-Arab political peace initiative.
Where did the impetus come from in the Carter administration, and why aren’t we seeing it with Obama?
There was a closer connection between desire and execution. Also the president was not as deeply embroiled, and buffeted, by a very broad, and commendable and ambitious domestic program as President Obama is. I think the Republican onslaught to the president, the wavering of some Democrats, has vastly complicated not only his choices in foreign affairs, but even limited the amount of attention he can give to them.
Is there truth that the more issues he is embroiled in, the less he can act?
I don’t think it’s the number of issues; it’s how decisively a president acts. A president, in his first year, is at the peak of his popularity, and if he acts decisively, even if some oppose him, most will rally around him, out of patriotism, out of opportunism, out of loyalty, out of the crowd instinct, just a variety of human motives.
Some in the Obama administration have told me that it’s only just over half a year, and we are jumping to too early conclusions about anything. Are the early months more critical than other times in an administration?
The first year is decisive. How much you can set in motion the first year sets the tone for much of the rest of the term. In part, that’s because all these things take more than one year to complete. But the point is you want to have a dynamic start that carries momentum with it.
President Carter early on ran into strong opposition from American-based pro-Israeli lobbying groups that opposed the administration’s ideas for a peace initiative in the Middle East. What lesson should the Obama administration learn in formulating its own approach to an Israeli-Palestinian dialogue?
The lesson is if you are forthright in what you are seeking, you tend to mobilize support within the Jewish community. Because a majority of American Jews are liberal, and in the long run they know that peace in the Middle East is absolutely essential to Israel’s long-term survival.
Are you concerned about Afghanistan?
Quite unintentionally, but potentially and tragically, we are sliding into a posture which is beginning—and I emphasize the word “beginning”—to be reminiscent of what happened to the Soviets.
We have plenty of time to reverse course?
There is some time to reverse course. But time flies.
Gerald Posner is The Daily Beast's chief investigative reporter. He's the award-winning author of 10 investigative nonfiction bestsellers, ranging from political assassinations, to Nazi war criminals, to 9/11, to terrorism. His latest book, Miami Babylon: Crime, Wealth and Power—A Dispatch from the Beach, will be published in October. He lives in Miami Beach with his wife, the author Trisha Posner.
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Gerald Posner is The Daily Beast's Chief Investigative Reporter. He's the award-winning author of 10 investigative nonfiction bestsellers, ranging from political assassinations, to Nazi war criminals, to 9/11, to terrorism. His latest book, Miami Babylon: Crime, Wealth and Power—A Dispatch from the Beach, was published in October. He lives in Miami Beach with his wife, the author Trisha Posner.
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Gerald Posner is The Daily Beast's Chief Investigative Reporter. He's the award-winning author of 10 investigative nonfiction bestsellers, ranging from political assassinations, to Nazi war criminals, to 9/11, to terrorism. His latest book, Miami Babylon: Crime, Wealth and Power—A Dispatch from the Beach, was published in October. He lives in Miami Beach with his wife, the author Trisha Posner.
Zbigniew is exactly right! There is no way an American base in Poland, with U.S. Military Personnel living and working among the Polish people, could strengthen the relationship between Poland and the U.S.
And his scenario of U.S. fighter jets rising to defend Iran from Israeli was bizarre, just absurd. I'm sure the Obama Administration is glad Brzezinski doesn't speak for them. They can't handle any more "lousy staff work."
I dont think all the apologizing he has done, and will have to continue to do, will ever make his foreign policy a thing to be admired. He makes decisions too quick based on his Rules for Radical thinking, and I have a quesition for this POTUS...How is that Change you can believe in working out for you these days?
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"The Russians have their own interests in Iran, which are far more complex than the simplistic notion that the Russians want to help us with Iran."
" Russians want to help us with Iran ? "
Why would they " help us ? "
Aren't they part of the anti-American
Russia-Venezuela-Iran Trifecta ?
One thing I know for sure, the Russians have never liked that Islamic fascist regime in Iran very much--not from the day it was established. They don't like any regimes like that south of their border, which is why they cooperate with the US in Afghanistan, as do the Chinese.
As for Chavez in Venezuela, he is just turning to any outside power who can bolster his position against the Colossus of the North, as many others in Latin America have tried to do over the last 100 years. In this case, however, the Colossus isn't really all that hostile to him, except for the Republican Right and the C Street Boys.
Even is Obama was hostile to him, he has much bigger worries in foreign and domestic policy, and very limited resources to deal with them. Anyone who was president at this time would face the same constraints and limits on US power, and the fact that the Wall Street-free market philosophy it has been pushing for the last 30 years is a total bust. This is one of the things that has made so many of the Republicans hysterical, but facts are facts: their ideas just don't work, and the whole world knows it.
DUDE.... I'm amazed at how comfortable you are on the far left side of the Democratic Party. What part of history do you look at? The mud or the outcomes? People judge Presidents and Parties by their results, not their propaganda.
Exhibit A: Jimmy Carter. Do I need to say more? What are Jimmy's results as President? What possible argument do you have? Be reasonable.
Exhibit B: Regan. Ended the cold war. Created millions of jobs. Stopped an economic collapse started by Carter. You idiot libs will talk about his defecit, but I'm sorry....some things are worth paying for.
If you actually read the sentence, it's a little more complex than that, and correct. If you recall, russia did help us (and then a ton) with WW2 on the eastern front, but also had their own interests in the whole thing. It's smart to actually take history and attempt to learn something from it.
The Russians do not want to help us in Iran, or anywhere in the Middle East,or anywhere in the world. I have not figured out why they are giving us some limited help in supplying our troops in Afghanistan. Nor is it clear why they would help Iran develop nuclear weapons, which in the long run might be aimed at them.
I have. They don not like these Islamic fascist regimes on their southern borders, potentially armed with nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. In general, the Russians have a "think" about Muslims anyway, all kinds of bad historical memories.
By teh same token, it is not in their interests to have NATO expanded all they way to the suburbs of Moscow at St. Petersburg, and the have some VERY, VERY BAD historical memories of being attacked from that direction. This would be the same, no matter who was in charge in Russia at the moment.
They also didn't like the idea of Bush-Cheney trying to asset some old-style US hegemony over the Middle East and Central Asia, for understandable reasons.
Yes, I think Obama is trying to reverse course on a lot of this, so that the US will look less threatening and hegemonistic, which is even more important in dealing with allies and neutrals that with avowed enemies.
In any case, we are no longer the Great Superpower of 1945 and no longer have the strength to play hegemon in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. We should take a more live and let live approach and just act like one great power among many in a multi-polar world, cooperate more with reformed international organizations when we can, especially on issues of poverty, epidemics, social and economic development.
Maybe we should have a foreign policy more like that of Holland and Denmark than the Roman Empire, and fight only when we are attacked--as we were by Al Qaeda. In any event, there is no military solution for at least 90% of the problems in this world.
Thank you for a wonderful article from Dr. Brzezinski who, unlike many of the so-called pundits, actually knows what he's talking about!
At least we have finally dropped the pretense that the anti-missile system in Poland had something to do with Iran. The Russians never believed that, and they were right all along. I think the Poles knew very early on that Obama was going to do this, while the Czechs will be happy to get rid of it.
It's certainly good that Poland is a NATO member, and that will guarantee its security against any Russian aggression in the. I have never believed for a minute that the Russians are going to attack any NATO country and start another world war. That is just not going to happen, although they are going to do everything possible to prevent NATO from expanding any further to the east, for obvious reasons.
It's is very unlikely that Obama is going to expand NATO, however. He already has enough troubles at home and abroad, is is not going to go looking for more.
Brzezinski's strong support of Obama has him descend into absurdities like
"And since they misconstrued-and I emphasize the word "misconstrue"-that the missile shield somehow strengthened their relationship with the U.S....".
Of course this cooperative project most definitely would have strengthened the Poles' relationship with the US. Brzezinski must have blushed with shame when telling such an obvious lie. At least he was honest enough to chide his hero, Obama, for the utterly crude and inept manner of breaking the news to the Poles and Czechs, who are now in a state of shock.
Having lived in the Czech Republic, I am skeptical that they ever wanted it at all, although Bush-Cheney threw in some sweeteners.
This whole project was on the back burner for years until Russia attacked Georgia for trying to get too independent of Moscow. It doesn't surprise me that they oppose any further expansion of NATO on their southern flank, or to Ukraine. Their reasons for this are obvious, as as those of the Ukrainians and Georgians for trying to get into NATO.
I noticed that the Poles were all smiles when Rice announced that the anti-missile project was going forward, and that certainly wasn't because they were happy at being asked to defend against imaginary Iranian missiles that were never going to be aimed at Europe anyway.
I lived in Poland, too, so I know they have no great love for Russia or Germany, and for good reason. I doubt that they are all that surprised or shocked that Obama cancelled this thing, or that he is working toward some kind of detente with Russia. He has been signalling for months that that's exactly what he's going to do.
It is good that Poland is a NATO member, but to state that attack from Russia would result in NATO's military response might be a little naive. Didn't Poland have military pacts with France and England in 1939? How many French and Englishmen died defending Poland? Is it reasonable to expect the same nations to act differently? Russians take lessons from history, Europeans and Americans don't!
I always thought the missile shield was stupid, so I'm glad to see it has been "shot down". Bush/Cheney weren't fooling the Russians with their plans, those missiles could have been fired at Russia as well as Iran. The Czechs & Poles are members of the EU, let the EU start protecting their own.
Iran has oil nuclear capability. The leaders of the country may be thugs, but they are not stupid. They will not fire a nuclear missile against us or any other country. They know the retaliation against them would obliterate them. They just want to play with the big boys & act the big bad guy of the Middle East.
no duh jo. Of course those missiles could have been aimed at Russia. This is called "getting over on them". They do not have the funding to be able to defend it. This weekens them internally. Russia would be weekened to Mcmugh's family in Eastern Europe as well. With a week Russia, they can't assist the Iranians. Here's the rub, if Iran decides to launch a nuke at Israel, then we launch one up Russia's ass. This is a mental game to keep Russia in check. We don't have to worry about that now though.
Putin has plans to remake the old Soviet Union and Obama is trying to help him.
The big boys are cowards. They are good for starting wars that they send the little boys and girls to fight as long as they are not their little boys and girls. And as dumb as the big boys are, they are not dumb enough to strike down and Israeli plane for any reason. Israel is a small axe. Small axes bring big trees down.
Dr Brzezinski, are you going to continue to provide cover for this amateur who has an amateur as Sec of State? This stuff should have been covered by the SoS weeks before the official announcement and not by midnight phone calls to the Czech President and certainly not on the day of Polish partition.
Doc is wrong on this, you have to keep pissing the Russians off because that's the only way you can keep tabs on them. The worst thing you can do is to announce that you are not doing this...does not matter if the tech exists, which it does, or if you even install it fully, just the threat of placing this, keeps them honest. It was the placing of intermediate range missles in W. Germany in the early 80's that got the Soviet's attention and then the mere threat of SDI and the fact that Reagan was able to sell the program and get research funding for it was what finally gave us leverage in the Cold War .
Obama allows the Russians greater operating room in dealing with their near abroad and then compounds his idiocy by assuring the Czechs and Poles that they will be first in line for a newer and better defense shield that he has in mind, but then allows NATO to come out and say we want to link our missle defense shields with the Russian system.
I guess someone forgot to tell Obama to get his cover story straight when telling a load of BS. What's it gonna be Z and Barry? Are we bringing in a new and better more "sustainable" system that is "pragmatic" or are we trying to make Russians business partners in the "hope" that we can get Iran to "change " its intentions?
It was always stupid to believe this missle defense was intended to defend Europe frm an Iranian missle in the first place. We should have always said what it was... an insurance policy for the Ukraine. But Doctor B. I would've thought you would know this....unless we are about to sell out the Ukrainians on their sovreignty down the line...wow.
How timely this interview article is. Today some of the secretive IAEA report information has been released that Iran has worked on developing and has the capability of building a missile with a chamber capable of delivering a HEU (highly enriched uranium) warhead on either a short or long-range missile. Mr. Brzezinski's statement regarding "that the Bush missile-shield proposal was based on a nonexistent defense technology, designed against a nonexistent threat, and designed to protect West Europeans, who weren't asking for the protection" is an accurate assessment of the new reality. The U.S. has decided to put its eggs in other baskets, so in effect there will be a missile defense shield but most likely a mobile one. His comments about the POTUS acting decisively, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Israel are highly informative and interesting. Mr. Posner, any chance of bagging interviews with other National Security Advisors and SOSs?
Read what Russia has to say about Obama and Brzezinski
It might just suprise you..
http://www.rense.com/general80/obb.htm
Webster G. Tarpley http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Webster_Tarpley
Make up your own minds if he's playing with a full deck or not.
How coincidental that just after Carter makes a fool of himself Brzezinski comes out of the woodwork like a Cockroach with his insane ideas. Mind you that 75% of American Jews support this insane Dem Party. As for Obama and his pathetic surrender to Putin all I can say is WE TOLD YOU SO.
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It has been known since the very outset that this "missile defence system" would not work. It failed test after test. But the press kept its respective heads down, playing their special role in the stupid charade. And now, a new plan, new money, billions no doubt, and again, no context, no history, no discussion. Just more fake issues and dimwitted discussions. It is an absurd and dangerous and stupid game.
This is great. American's and Israeli's in a dogfight above Iraq. Wow, who makes makes this stuff up, pass the coolaid.
Fox News actually covers USS Liberty incident with commentary from ex top CIA agent:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=095_1245797694&c
Nothing new here. Brzezinski was fed Polish anti- Semitism from his mothers milk and brought this Polish anti-Semitism to augment the hostility to Jews already permeating the halls of the State Department.
I have a friend who is a retired spook. You might be surprised what the CIA has to say about the big ZZZZZZ. Old saying you can take the boy out of the kgb but you can't take the kgb out of the boy.
When the Turkish newspaper, Todays Zaman, ran this article,
"Ankara won't allow Israel to use Turkish airspace in attacking Iran", Apr 29, 2009 ... The prospect of a surprise Israeli air strike on suspected Iranian nuclear sites using Turkish airspace would have alarming implications in ...
www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load
it seemed like the other nations likely to be involved, like ourselves in Iraq, were going to let the story fly under the radar, in an manner of speaking. ZB's comment dispels the idea that no one was paying attention.
Further - If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time since the attack, during the 6 day war in 1967, when the U.S.S. Liberty, an unarmed US reconnaissance/intelligence ship, was attacked in broad daylight by Israeli Naval and Air forces off the coast of Sinai, and almost sunk. Thirty-four US servicemen were killed and many more were wounded. What Mr. Brzezinski is alluding to is the most credible explanation for what happened; that the Israelis had notified Washington it did not want any of our ships in that area, but that due to a snafu, the ship's Captain was not notified. The attack, without warning, was the kind of thing the Klingon command might have done, not a nation with close ties to ourselves
.
Like ourselves, however, Israel is a sovereign nation, and choose their actions independently.
Doing as we would like to be done unto, it's appropriate for us to let the Israelis know - Don't fly over Iraq on our Watch!
(Sorry, a sentence in the third paragraph was lost in transmission - replaced in this copy)
When the Turkish newspaper, Todays Zaman, ran this article,
"Ankara won't allow Israel to use Turkish airspace in attacking Iran",
Apr 29, 2009 ... The prospect of a surprise Israeli air strike on suspected Iranian nuclear sites using Turkish airspace would have alarming implications in ...
www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load
it seemed like the other nations likely to be involved, like ourselves in Iraq, were going to let the story fly under the radar, in an manner of speaking. ZB's comment dispels the idea that no one was paying attention.
Further - If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time since the attack, during the 6 day war in 1967, when the U.S.S. Liberty, an unarmed US reconnaissance/intelligence ship was attacked in broad daylight by Israeli Naval and Air forces off the coast of Sinai, and almost sunk, that even a former high-ranking American official has referred to the incident in what might be considered an indirect public communication to Israel that the US has not forgotten. Thirty-four US servicemen were killed and many more were wounded. What Mr. Brzezinski is alluding to is the most credible explanation for what happened; that the Israelis had notified Washington it did not want any of our ships in that area, but that due to a snafu, the ship's Captain was not notified. The attack, without warning, was the kind of thing the Klingon command might have done, not a nation with close ties to ourselves.
Like ourselves, however, Israel is a sovereign nation, and chooses their actions independently.
Doing as we would like to be done unto, it's appropriate for us to let the Israelis know - Don't fly over Iraq to attack another nation on our Watch!
It is well known corollary that the parazite should be very careful to not harm the host since this will be a certain suicide for it.........Ignotus
The Reagan cheerleaders always give me a laugh, Reagan had less to do w/ the end of the cold war than either Pope John-Paul or the Polish unions and Jimmy Carter has more integrity than Reagan could have ever wished. Reagan was a racist who used American hostages in Iran to elect himself while selling missiles & guidance tech. to terrorists in Iran through Israel, then he had to arm our buddy Saddam w/ weapons & biologicals to fight Iran, that has turned out well don't you think? He propped up dictators throughout Central & South America who killed & tortured tens of thousands of civilians for corporate profits. Move on to his refusal to fund AIDS research because only gays were dying at the time ( American citizens) . Told schools to consider ketchup a vetegable in lunches, said trees cause forest fires, and a littany of other gems too stupid to list . Anyone who uses Reagan to measure either Carter or Brzezinski only shows their complete lack of any coherent thought or grasp of reality. Oh yes I forgot, kicking off his campaign for president in Mississippi in a town known only for murdering civil rights workers in the 60's. And untill Israel apologizes for the "Liberty" and it's murder of American sailors ( using American weapons) I don't think we should give them any financial aid.
Say it again, MichaelPerkins... say it again.
Jeez... every once in awhile someone posts who remembers well and really knows what he is talking about.
THANKS.
I think about all of this when I still hear the name of Olli North once in the while in the Press.
I was surprised that bartard was still alive. I thought he would be in hell by now, along with Reagon.
Mozart; i was sitting at a gate in Phoenix a few years ago waiting for a plane and Ollie sat down two seats away and I could not resist asking if he had a portable document shredder in his breif case, he was not amused so I then said "oh please tell me a story Ollie , you're so good at maknig shit up" he just left but a few minutes later my bags got the search of a life time, it was worth the hour of crap just to know I got under his skin.
Maybe the IAF should shoot down Brzezinski. Once an anti-semite... always an anti-semite!
Thank you.
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