Early Oscar Bets

Nicole LaPorte,
West Coast correspondent for The Daily Beast

With the Telluride and Toronto film festivals in the rear-view mirror, the race is on: Oscar buzz is heating up in Hollywood, ratcheting up to a mild roar, as awards pundits are waging heated debates online and in print over what’s hot and what’s not.

The conversation is made all the more lively seeing as this year, the number of Best Picture nominations has leapt from five to ten—meaning that even summer popcorn movies like Star Trek are now being touted as awards-worthy—and yet the pickings have never seemed slimmer. "It was already shaping up to be quite a weak year, and then (Martin Scorsese’s) Shutter Island was moved (to 2010), and a weak year became even weaker," said Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar guru Dave Karger. "There are whispers that Nine—Rob Marshall’s adaptation of the Broadway musical, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, and Penelope Cruz—might move to next year. If that happens, you might as well cancel the awards. At some point, I’m going to start thinking about making a movie really quick and submitting it. It’s embarrassing how few worthy movies there are this year."

Granted, not everything has been seen yet. A vexing hush is surrounding highly-anticipated year-end releases such as the film version of Alice Sebold’s The Lovely Bones, Peter Jackson’s return to non-Hobbit fantasies; Avatar, James Cameron’s epic follow-up to Titanic; Invictus, Clint Eastwood’s latest, starring Matt Damon as a rugby star in post-apartheid South Africa; as well as Nine.

A slightly more ominous silence cloaks Amelia, the biopic of Amelia Earhart, featuring Hilary Swank. That Fox Searchlight, which is releasing the movie later this month, is putting more visible resources behind The Fantastic Mr. Fox—Wes Anderson’s debut as an animated film director—and flying journalists to London for that film’s junket, only adds to the perception that Amelia has some question marks.

As the contours of the race begin to take a definite shape—with a groundswell of approval for films such as Up in the Air and Precious—herewith are early predictions from Hollywood’s most plugged-in prognosticators, as well as the Daily Beast’s own picks of the films most likely to make the grade in the coveted Best Picture category so far.

The Daily Beast's Top Four Picks for Best Picture Oscar Nominations:

1. Precious—Director Lee Daniels’ searing take on the novel Push, by Sapphire, about a young woman in Harlem trying to make her way in a world devastatingly stacked against her. Performances by newcomer Gabourey "Gabby" Sidibe, Mariah Carey, and especially Mo’nique, have the Hollywood masses chattering.
2. Up In the Air—Based on the novel by Walter Kirn, writer-director Jason Reitman’s follow-up to Juno is about a committedely non-committed bachelor (George Clooney) whose job is to fly around the country, laying people off. The film poignantly combines humor and pathos in a story that is achingly relevant, and shows Clooney at his best.
3. Up—Another masterpiece from Pixar, which again proves that animated films need not rely on the voices of A-list stars or scripts that are machine-gunned with wise-ass jokes in order to make art that is in no way just for kids.
4. The Hurt Locker—Director Kathryn Bigelow’s pseudo-documentary-style ode to the war in Iraq as seen and felt by those who are on the ground living it. A strong ensemble cast led by Jeremy Renner and Anthony Mackie helped this film break through the negative buzz that tainted so many other war movies in recent years.

Other Top Contenders:

1. An Education—Adapted for the screen by Nick Hornby, Lynn Barber’s coming-of-age memoir tells the story of a London school girl seduced away from the bedrock of her staunchly conservative family by an older man (Peter Sarsgaard) who isn’t all that he seems. The film warmed hearts in Sundance and Toronto, and Mulligan’s performance is one of the breakthroughs of the year.
2. Bright Star—Jane Campion’s sumptuous recreation of the love story between John Keats (played by the bee-sting-lipped Ben Whishaw) and Fanny Brawne (Abbie Cornish), in which the performances are as good as the clothes. Critics question whether the film has the emotional punch to take it all the way on Oscar night, but it should certainly be given the chance.
3. Star Trek—J.J. Abrams’ sleek update of the cult franchise was one of the summer’s best-received popcorn movies, and with ten nomination slots to be filled, it has a decent shot at earning a nod. Many consider Star Trek this year’s Dark Knight—i.e., the tentpole movie that deserves to be acknowledged by the Academy.
4. District 9—Another sci-fi thriller with a pedigree (this one was produced by Peter Jackson) that was embraced by critics and moviegoers alike. Even the non-geeks conceded that the low-budget film, directed by first-timer Neill Blomkamp, took a typically schlocky genre and turned it into something much more.