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Is Iraq Slipping Away?
Haraz N. Ghanbari / AP Photo
As violence escalates, Prime Minister al-Maliki is losing control of his country. Reihan Salam on what America should do about it.
After weeks of relative calm, the Islamic State of Iraq, a collection of terrorist groups that includes the notorious al Qaeda of Mesopotamia, launched a coordinated suicide attack in the heart of Baghdad that left at least 155 dead and hundreds more wounded. The last major attack occurred in August, when 102 civilians died in a series of bombings that targeted key government ministries. In a show of strength, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had dismantled much of the dense warren of blast walls designed to blunt the damage caused by terrorist attacks, one reason why the August attack proved so deadly. Yet this week's attack occurred in a well-fortified part of the city, and the culprits had to pass through a series of checkpoints. This has raised deeper questions about the negligence of Iraq's army and police, if not the complicity of some officials. Though the Sunni terrorists behind the attacks represent a discredited political force, they may have succeeded in discrediting Iraq's national unity government.
Maliki's decision to break with the sectarian Shia parties to form an ostensibly nonsectarian nationalist alliance hasn't endeared him to the Islamic State of Iraq, which is perhaps best understood as a group of Sunni supremacists. Though it's hard to get too excited about Maliki, his efforts to include prominent Sunni politicians in his coalition represented a breakthrough in Iraqi politics, which prompted his erstwhile Shia allies to make a show of reaching out to the Sunni community as well. But having built his reputation as a strongman capable of both defeating the terrorists and standing up to the Americans, Maliki is extremely vulnerable to the not-inaccurate perception that he's losing his grip on the country.
One can argue that the U.S. has already invested enough, and that the surge strategy was designed to buy Iraqis just enough time to settle their differences—if Iraq fails to seize that opportunity, my guess is that a large majority of Americans, Democrats and Republicans, will be content to call it a day.
Sensing the anger and frustration of Iraqis, the Maliki government responded to the August attacks with a series of arrests and the extraction of dubious confessions. The stakes are even higher now, as Iraq's various political factions are trying and failing to reach a compromise on national elections scheduled for the 16th of January. Apart from determining the future shape of Iraq's government, these national elections will help determine the pace of the American withdrawal from Iraq.
If all goes according to plan, the roughly 120,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq will fall to 50,000 by August of next year, a decline that would greatly facilitate a stepped up pace of operations in Afghanistan and that would give a battered and overextended American military badly-needed breathing room. But the undeniable fact is that the Iraqis will have an extremely difficult time containing their insurgency without substantial American assistance. Incredibly, the August attacks involved two-ton truck bombs assembled in the middle of the Iraqi capital. If the Iraqi security forces don't have the intelligence capability to foil such a crude plot, it's easy to see why American military planners are full of despair. The hope is that Iraq will become something like Colombia during the most violent phase of its civil war: a country that controls its borders and that can contain lawlessness and violence just enough to prevent it from overwhelming the central government, even without large numbers of foreign troops to keep the peace. For a while, that goal seemed to be within reach. Now, well, it's hard to tell.
Meanwhile, the political process is going in exactly the wrong direction. The contentious negotiations over the January election are the least of it. Just as the Islamic State of Iraq intended, the attacks have led to a series of accusations and counteraccusations. Shia politicians are inclined to blame Syria and Saudi Arabia and, of course, members of the Sunni-dominated Baathist Party for the violence. And Sunni politicians, in turn, will often accuse leading Shia Iraqis of serving as Iranians pawns. Reconciliation between Sunni and Shia Iraqis is as far away as ever.
• Chris Lehmann on the dark side of U.S. foreign policy Leaving the terrorist attacks aside, Iraqis are also struggling with the question of what to do with Kirkuk, a disputed region that Iraqi Kurds claim as part of their homeland. Various compromise proposals have been floated, yet the basic fact remains that the Kurds consider the Saddam-era settlement of Arabs in Kirkuk, many of them poor Shia Iraqis from the slums of Baghdad, to be a grave historical injustice. The situation bears an uncomfortably close resemblance to the struggles that tore apart the former Yugoslavia. Even if Iraq does go down in flames, it's not obvious that Americans will be terribly interested, particularly since U.S. troops have already left the cities, thus reducing their exposure to danger. One can argue that the U.S. has already invested enough, and that the surge strategy was designed to buy Iraqis just enough time to settle their differences—if Iraq fails to seize that opportunity, my guess is that a large majority of Americans, Democrats and Republicans, will be content to call it a day. I don't think that this is the right impulse: Iraq remains vitally important to American strategic interests. But the fact that the American public has long since run out of patience with the U.S. mission in Iraq should focus the minds of Iraqi politicians.
Reihan Salam is a fellow at the New America Foundation and the co-author of Grand New Party.
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I would liken the "stable" Iraq to be or less another Nigeria. Split into 3 ethnic regions with most of oil located in one such region, out of controll insurgency, and questionable central government. Also the religious conflict complicating everything Isamic north vs Chistian South compares to Iraqs Sunni/Shia dynamic. This does not bode well for the stability of the region.
A little far-fetched, but there are some similarities....
Iraq has become a charnal house of Bushboy's making. Tragically Obama has inherited this albatross and has to deal with it.
It seems the only thing we can do is continue on our planned withdrawal and hope the Iraqi politicians will get their act together to establish a viable state.
The probability is that once we leave, Iraq will be balkanized by the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shia. If that's the outcome, so be it. We've wasted enough blood and treasure in this Bushboy folly already.
Hey Periscope,
Keep yapping about Bush until the end of time - just like Obama, you minions can only play the blame game - i am wondering why exactly Obama chose to run for the Presidency. so that he could continue blaming Bush? Any one could do that - why do we need a sleazy Alinskyite from Chicago to do that ?
Another reminder - your Precious President while running for the WH wanted the US troops to start withdrawal in March 2008 ! Now, that would have worked awesomely well, wouldnt it ?
Any one can play monday morning quarterback - the question is does Obama WANT to be the Sunday afternoon quarterback ? ( of course he doesnt have the talent to be one, but thats another story)
But for a Democrat to whine like a perpetual victim must indeed be second nature. So, i understand your whining.
Michael Stephen Levinson is a candidate for president.
You lived under Bush, and through the Iraq war he put us into. Now you have another wimp - Obama. The following commentary, "Exit Strategy out of Iraq" appears in "New Wold Hors D'oeuvres." A free pdf is available online at the following address: http://www.michaelslevinson.com/newworld.pdf
One important element in the Lev program for Iraq: 40,000 citizen ambassadors would be employed on this dangerous civilian mission who would receive $28 an hour and double time Saturdays and Sundays, for a guaranteed 16 hours double pay overtime a week.
We would also ship over to Iraq 10,000 quad cab trucks gathering dust on our dealerships.
As you will read, with my program the Iraqi's will become our 2nd strongest ally in that region of the world. In good faith, have yourself a read. What follows is from Lev Exit Strategy essay.
"Liken Iraq's interim constitution to our own Articles of Confederation. Iraq needs a constitution that will last. They do not have one yet. Our constitution should be their base. We are the youngest nation on the planet, with the oldest standing government. Our constitution should be translated, and the Iraqis challenged to read the Bill of Rights.
The Iraqi people might embrace our tried and tested methods where everyone's rights are protected and all religions are equal under the rule of law! Our own Constitution, in place, could bring about closure to the Iraqis' internecine fighting, leaving only Saddam's old Baathists, and al Qaeda's sponsored terrorists for the Iraqi tribal militias to deal with, without us.
We should be going over our constitution for the Iraqis line by line on television all day long; and in their newspapers, too, so Iraq's people can adopt our constitution as their own. Unless we win the peace, the Bush sponsored Iraq war was completely a waste, all those lives wasted for Bush's vanity, but to win we need some innovation, beyond our constitution, with forty thousands more of our own people - civilians doing their part, some good in Iraq, or we can't pull out.
Those going over should be civilians, not soldiers in uniform! It's time the American people are embedded with the Iraqis, key to our success in ending this horrible war with honor! We need to deliver our constitution to every village, pass out translated copies with a hand shake, and help establish democracy in Iraq, from the bottom up, which is the way democracy has always started up, contrary to Bush's and Obama's style of doing business, top down above us, and to do it right, to win, we need the right truck.
In order to leave Iraq in peace, our victory, we must supplement our troops with 40,000 citizen ambassadors.
President Obama must order an independent retrofitting of ten thousand off road trucks that today gather dust at our dealerships, with volunteer ambassadors from every state aboard, in forty vehicle teams.
Christen our trucks, The Scorpion Brigades, with license plates from every state, and Onstar hooked up, so we, the people over here, are over there, too. F-150's, Sierras, Toyota Tundras and Silverados are made for the desert job. I can hear the announcer's voice proclaiming, "Like Iraq!"
Regardless who is president, this dangerous civilian volunteer mission will pay, as above, minimum $28 an hour with double time for overtime, including life insurance paid by Uncle Sam.
The president must instruct our potential citizen ambassadors to go to their favorite dealerships and register for emergency service.
Obama's ignoring this is our reason to immediately begin moving for impeachment - to get him off the golf course while lives are at stake!
Volunteers seeking the opportunity to go over to Iraq (and earn $2000 a week) please note: It is required you bring your own assault rifles with cases of ammo, too; and not be afraid to pull the trigger with a person in the crosshairs, or you can't make the trip. In Iraq kill al Qaeda or be killed.
The "I" in the acronym IED, precedes the "E" for Explosive. "D" is for Device. "I" they say, is for Improvised, but we are the true innovators, not Obama's acro-bureaucrats.
Commonest of sense, our "can-do" spirit dictates the take out menu for off-road, retrofit truck embedding. Coat trucks desert cream, especially the chrome; uniformly splotch beige; rig grills with cast iron shields to protect motors, also splotch; beef suspensions; enlarge gas tanks; add Mobile One to crank with charcoal dip filters of air conditioning. Fasten compasses to dash. Reupholster camper tops with police grade Kevlar and Dragon Skin, same stuff in door panels. Using junkyard iron, plate truck undersides and doors.
Be nimble enough to squeeze through an oversize sunroof or stay home and dream.
Include the best dash-bracketed 40 band CB's and high powered binoculars, with police radar guns, too, distance calibrated, so when our Scorpion Brigades dash around the desert floor in 40 tooth combs we mean any suspicious Iraqis rolling, or foreign Jihads going home, stopping to plant a road-side bomb, and then rolling on, are guaranteed their surface-to-surface laser-guided ticket.
Load cases of bottled water, freeze-dried everything, and microwaves, with delicious ready-to-eat stuff bought local, off the neighborhood retail shelf.
Every mission critical democracy truck flown over should include a digital camcorder and laptops with wireless Internet access, so we can see what is up with our citizen volunteers. The camper tops need tow missile brackets, so over night, trained civilian gunners can sit their tails on the spare tires to fire.
Every quad cab has to have 50 caliber machine gun brackets on their roof, so when the need arises, whoever rides shotgun on the border can ride standing upright in the sunroof, and stinger a crossing suicide bomber, besides the foreign interlopers going home on leave, who need their tires blown out in their tracks, in the middle of nowhere, then swatted like flies.
We should be getting our quad cabs readied for off road desert duty immediately! The army pipeline for bureaucracies' armored vehicles is 18 months. Our Scorpion Brigades could get their iron plating welded and ready for emergency service inside 48 hours!
A real president would speak to us and give the order. C5-A Constellations should be flying from city to city, loading trucks bumper-to-bumper with crews aboard, tailgate parties scheduled to be held on the desert floor.
Obama's refusal to budge is a major reason to throw him out at the end of his term if not sooner! Obama cannot be allowed to sacrifice any more of our precious kids in a guerrilla gun battle that refuses to finish, that guaranteed, without these above described, retrofit, quad-cab 4-wheel drive, off-road trucks immediately put in the Iraqi mix.
The genuine threat of a one term presidency could motivate his wife, Michelle to read her husband our riot act. The easily manipulated wimp must surely realize the more our troops are wounded or killed, the less likely democrats will hold their offices. They will pay at the polling booth for Obama's war mismanagement.
When this was first written down, when it said Bush where it says Obama, before FBI came knocking on my door with my email to newspaper editors in hand, Americans killed in Iraq numbered 650 and counting. 4000 were reported as wounded, politic-speak for body parts sheared off, and 13,000 casualties. What qualifies the label: casualty?
Ten thousand trucks, four civilian ambassadors in each, is the minima required to establish a foundation for Iraqi democracy and peace. As long as Bin Laden sends volunteers to al Qeada in Iraq, why can't we be sending over volunteers?
Besides visiting every country hamlet and town, to make friends, assess needs and begin a grass roots, people to people Marshall Plan; in groups of forty, with cells and CB radios, our Scorpion Brigades will seal, in and out, all of Iraq's borders, guarding the oil pipe lines, too, while watching all the highways and byways leading to the terrorist Qaeda strongholds, in quartets and pairs, parked off-road a few miles apart, their CB's and cop-car radar guns, powered to mark insurgents that pull off road to plant explosives, along with their human detonators, left back to trigger their remotes from behind the nearest berm.
Our spotters can CB down the two-lanes which car needs disabling, etc., then proceed to take out the sucker left there to blow us up. The Scorpion Brigades on guard will nail each and every insurgent they encounter especially by the border, enabling us to secure Iraq at large.
The Scorpion Brigades, ten thousand trucks strong, will binocular every checkpoint. The Jihad insurgency pays its own way, smuggling oil which they cash out every day in Jordan and Syria. We will "ticket" the tankers filled with stolen oil long before they pull up to the Iraqi border.
Insurgency is a full time occupation. But insurgents have to eat. When we own the length of all the borders with our Scorpion Brigades, the continuous feed of recycled terrorists from around the Middle East will be canceled, as will their means of finance, which are smuggled oil and goods.
10,000 quad-cabs, four people strong in each, ought to be enough to control all of Iraq's borders, visit every hamlet and town, and also own the roads leading to the outskirts of any al Qaeda controlled towns and cities which our media isn't talking about.
Here is the key - the icing on the cake:
We want the Iraqi parents to let us bring back 50 thousand of their kids to America with us, to live in America and go to our schools, for a couple years anyway, so the kids are safe from flaring violence in Iraq, and learning democracy here.
This kid exchange, for the Iraqis, goes with Congress awarding Iraq favored nation status, so our citizen quad cab ambassadors can palaver ready deals in every village we visit for all their figs, nuts and dates, packed on the spot for export, in exchange for American cash over the Iraqi barrelhead.
In the last election I sought the nomination of both political parties, so we can present to the world a united face, backed by all the American people, the first step toward my coming natch a rill that will suffice as world peace, beginning with a peaceful night, when all the world's peoples will be doing the same thing at the same time: watching my whirled wide sprechen on TV.
I promise in advance, to spout a delicate sensible, mull tie ling well rhyme, in every line, so all peoples all over the planet, our good ship mother earth, feel they are participants.
I trump all the candidates, besides our current president because I have the words for all man kind. I am going to say these words for all man kind, live, on world wide television, or you are going to lose your good life on this planet, because ther world is leaderless, the ecologic balance will tip. First comes World Peace. Then as a world we will solve the man made global warming. That is, from my point of view, the order of world events.
Regardless your party affiliation, my Iraq Exit Strategy is a viable way to stage a military draw down and get out without a debacle. Unless we seal Iraq's borders first, when the date certain for leaving is public, and we begin a pull out, al Qaeda cells from surrounding Arabic lands will send recruits to practice bag an American, the Bush Obama legacy: our patriots body bagged, but beheaded, their missing heads lined on the roadside, heads as melons, wired to a scarecrow stake, dead eyes on a roll, haunting our troops on their way to the airport, remotely blown. Osama Bin Laden's barbaric message will reign throughout. We cannot allow it.
Nor can we stall Iraqi civil war or talk them down without my program which offers a safe future for our children. The above, my end war strategy isn't a game. With 50 thousand Iraqi kids, temporarily living in America and going to school, Iraq will become our very firmest ally, a bastion of western styled democracy, a model for all the Iranian and Syrian and Palestinian kids to follow.
You have a choice: world peace or the continuing smoke and mirrors.
michaelslevinson.com
PS: We supply the Iraqi kids and their parents with cell phones so every day parents and their kids in America can talk. The Iraqis will love us.
The recent violence is sponsored from the proceeds of the first 'milking' of the afghanistan poppy. Al Qaeda has the money to pay the families of the suicide bombers.
In the above there is a typo, "because ther world is leaderless, the ecologic balance will tip," should have read "because 'the' world is leaderless, because OUR world is leaderless.
And in the last paragraph, "which offers a safe future for our children," should have read "which offers a safe future for their children."
michaelslevinson.com
For some reason I just got a hungerism for squirrel pot pie.
Sadly Iraq is lost and we should not be there for anothere 10 years because we have fallen in love to a mirage of what we think Iraq might be for us one day.
A nation which fails to learn it's lesson from history is not wise ( sorry for making this into a "confusionism" but I have been in this for minutes and can not thimk of anything sounding less hoity-toity.) and the lesson we should have learned from Vietnam is that an occupatinal (good intentions or not) entity can not impose it's democracy on a forign people. Especially since democracy is such an abstract, I mean even America has is still everyday perfecting what a democracy means.
I am now watching Daniel Ellsberg on c-span. He talked about Bush's plan to paint a plane and fly into Iraq and get it shot down and we could have an excuse to start a war. Tony Blair didn't like his plan.
Somewhat off thread: The situation in Iraq continues to be unstable. It's getting worse despite or, more likely, because of the USA's long occupation of Iraq. This is the time for Pres Obama to pull all US forces out of Iraq. Bring the troops home.
Iraqi's don't want Iraq to continue being a de facto US colony. They are rejecting politicians friendly to the USA.
FWIW, as long as BHO is dithering about Afghanistan, pulling all US troops out is necessary. Any politician approves of is uber bad news. Nobody has ever tamed Afghanistan. The USA is the latest to try to do it & fail. The people of Afghanistan aren't a docile people. The wise acre maxim, "If at 1st you don't succeed, forget about it; it was a lousy idea in the 1st place.", should be BHO's response to sending more troops into Afghanistan.
When Pres Obama bought it from W, he was swindled. Don't put any more good money into the place. Don't send more troops in. Bring back the troops still in Afghanistan at once or, better yet, 4 weeks ago.
"Dithering" is a term used by Cheney and other mental-defectives. Sober, rational people consider what Obama is doing is "deliberating." Which is something Bushboy and Cheney should have done before invading Iraq - if that were the case, perhaps we wouldn't be there.
Afghanistan is a difficult call because it will take a long and arduous effort to keep the Taliban and al Qaeda out of there and the complication of the Pakistan border nearby and other regional problems.
Considering this decision may involve thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of $$$ spent by the U.S., it is hardly "dithering" to consider these important factors in any decision.
Peri,
It's a matter of point-of view.
If it was the IRS deciding whether they were going to give you a refund, or a doctor deciding whether he was going to prescribe an expensive diagnostic procedure for you. You might angrily call it dithering.
When you don't care if US troops are being killed while waitng for a lousy reinforcement decision, you call it "deliberating".
He really isn't helping his image as a leader with this nonsense...
Who doesn't care about troops being killed? It certainly isn't Obama, although you could make the case for Bushboy and Cheney who sent troops into harms way without sufficient armor or back-up when they instigated the Iraq War.
Contrary to right-wing ideologues calling his deliberations "nonsense," rational people appreciate him taking the time to decide whether the risks in Afghanistan are worth the commitment of more blood and treasure.
Only a fool wouldn't look long and hard at that question.
periscope - Agreed.
Now Iraq is like Colombia? Remember when the liberation of Iraq was supposed to be like Japan and Germany, plus it was supposed to pay for itself?
These neocons are truly absurd. Iraq is an inherently unstable patriarchal clannish sectarian Arab society. Time to get out and let them sort it and live with it. Way to go neocons, you must be heroes in Teheran or somewhere.
President Obama needs to reinforce that we will extend our commitment if it is required. This could go a long way to quelll the violence more people are shown the futility of these bombings. But they are testing us and if they think we are ready to cut and run in the face of a planned resurgence.. well then it really is over.
There are a couple of problems with this argument.
1) The Iraqi insurgency is at its weakest point since the 2003 invasion. The number of weekly attacks and deaths are lower than in 2003. Many Sunnis want to join the political process and stopped attacks after the Jan. 09 provincial elections. There is no more actual fighting even in Iraq. There are basically terrorist attacks, IEDs, and assassinations. This will continue probably for years, but the situation really hasn't changed since the U.S. pulled out of Iraq's cities.
2) Iraqi politics are hobbling along like they always have been. Whenever there are big issues the parliament takes forever and usually doesn't agree on anything. There will be parliamentary election in Iraq, they'll just take a long time. The provincial elections were suppose to happen in Oct. 08 for example, but didn't occur until Jan. 09.
3) The U.S. will have advisers and be providing military aid and sales, but overall, the Iraqis these days are much mroe concerned about their own little squabbles and power struggles, than what the U.S. wants.
musingsoniraq.blogspot.com
Mr. Salam, you should deploy to Iraq immediately. Here are the US Army recruiters' phone numbers from my area:
214 340 2401
972 243 3360
I'm sure they can help you find a recruiter in your area. Good luck and God speed.
Iraq will return to steady state when Big White Christian Bwana finally gets his thumb off the scales.
Like every other place in the world.
How purely amazing it is that I once admired you, and here you are nakedly revealed as the same neocon-interventionist meddling filth as Bush and Cheney.
So more of American youth has to die so face for the Epic Fail of the Bush admin?
Bring back the draft!!!!
That will eff up you armchair commandos.
"I just finished watching this video from the launch of Ayad Jamal Aldin's Ahrar Party from Saturday. He seems like just the kind of person we need in Iraq. He seems to be committed to providing real security in the country. Maliki hasn't been able to provide it and now it's threatening our ability to pull out American troops from Iraq. More people in America need to take a look at him."
"I just finished watching this video from the launch of Ayad Jamal Aldin's Ahrar Party from Saturday. He seems like just the kind of person we need in Iraq. He seems to be committed to providing real security in the country. Maliki hasn't been able to provide it and now it's threatening our ability to pull out American troops from Iraq. More people in America need to take a look at him."
Thank you.
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