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How Palin Helps Bloomberg
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Wasilla's finest may be dominating the headlines today. But by 2012, the country may be sick of base politics and ready for an independent. Mark McKinnon makes the case for Mike Bloomberg in 2012.
If Sarah Palin dominates Republican politics for the next two years the way she’s going to for the next couple of weeks, there may be a certain big-city mayor smiling somewhere. And a third party brewing.
I don’t buy the argument that there can’t be a successful independent candidacy for the presidency of the United States. People who say it can’t happen are many of the same people who said we’d never elect an African American.
Of course it could happen. All it would take is the right combination of mood, message, messenger, and money. The electoral mood has to be right—meaning really bad and really mad. The message has to be right—meaning a call for change. The messenger has to be right—meaning different, but credible. And he or she has to have money—a lot of it.
The prospective field of 2012 Republican candidates at the moment doesn’t appear to have anyone who is going to excite independent voters.
The mood in 2008 was very similar to 1992, when Ross Perot mounted his third-party bid. If Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton had been nominated, they would have been viewed as establishment candidates and it would have created an opening for a third-party candidacy. And Michael Bloomberg was preparing to step and fill the vacuum.
Alas, two candidates who represented change in their respective parties won the nomination, and the door closed for Bloomberg. And now he’s gone on to be elected to an unprecedented third term in New York where he is being hailed as the greatest mayor since Fiorello LaGuardia.
• Tina Brown: Sarah Drops the Act
• Shushannah Walshe: Palin’s Katie Couric Lies Conventional wisdom would have us believe that was the last best chance to create a viable third party for the foreseeable future. But, while perfect conditions for third-party storms seemingly only stir up every 20 years or so, 2012 has some of the telltale signs. It’s hard to imagine how Obama has easy victories on the economy or in Afghanistan, not to mention all the other difficult issues on his plate. If we’re still in Afghanistan when the next presidential election rolls around, a big part of his base will be unhappy and unmotivated. And if the economy isn’t doing well (few economists expect a big turnaround anytime soon), independents will be unhappy.
• Benjamin Sarlin: 10 Palin Hits the Leakers Missed
• More Daily Beast contributors on Palin’s book tour. Right now, the Republican brand is badly damaged. Only about 20 percent of Americans in recent polling self-identified with the Grand Old Party. Things could certainly change, but the prospective field of 2012 Republican candidates at the moment doesn’t appear to have anyone who is going to excite independent voters. Tim Pawlenty keeps tacking to the right, imitating Mitt Romney circa 2008. And now Sarah Palin is sucking up all the oxygen 24/7, firing up the base but turning off independents.
That should be good news for the Democrats. But they’re in a free fall as well; shockingly, in some recent polls more voters prefer a generic Republican to a Democrat. The only bloc growing in size and strength in politics these days is independents.
Drum roll. Enter Mike Bloomberg: tanned, rested, $16 billion flush, term limited—and bored.
Voters and the media are rightly skeptical of leadership claims these days. But it’s hard to argue with Bloomberg’s record of taking on some the toughest issues in the toughest city in America and making eye-popping progress:
• He managed the city through worst economic crisis in half a century.
• He retained 400,000 jobs during the global recession.
• He’s made government work for people with innovations like 311, the civic service which answers calls in over 150 languages.
• He took on the unions, won control of the schools, reformed the public-school system, dramatically improved test scores and launched the largest school construction program in the city’s history.
• During his tenure, the graduation rate for New York City high-schoolers has increased by 15 percent.
• The school crime rate has dropped by 44 percent.
• The city’s crime rate is down 30 percent, and race relations have dramatically improved.
The bottom line: Mike Bloomberg gets results. He’s pragmatic, smart, a consensus builder, a true centrist. (Did we mention he’s worth $16 billion and now ranked the eighth wealthiest man in America? Bloomberg spent $100 million of his own money in this last mayor’s race. So he’d probably hardly flinch to match the $1 billion table stakes for a presidential contest in 2012.)
In a couple of years, voters may be looking for experience—looking for someone with a proven track record of bringing people together under tough circumstances. Looking for someone who really understands economics and the private sector. Looking for an adult. Looking for someone who can capture the moment, communicate a clear message and spend enough money to compete with the major parties.
In 2012, voters could be looking for Michael Bloomberg.
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono.
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Paul Schrodt is a writer living in New York City. He has contributed to New York magazine, Radar, and Esquire.com.
Justice Clinton?
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Myra Adams is a media producer, writer and political observer. Her media clients have included national associations, political interest groups and corporations. She was on the creative team with Mark McKinnon that created the now infamous John Kerry "Windsurfing" ad for the Bush 2004 presidential campaign and served on the McCain Ad Council during the 2008 McCain campaign. Myra's web site www.TheJesusStore.com contributes all profits to Christian charity.
Grill Him Again!
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Not a Game-Changer
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Cforchange
Perfect Mark, you've nailed it this time. The electorate is very ready for less and different party politics. The current state of impasse is not accomplishing a damn thing.
winston1
Never! There is no chance for Bloomberg to be President. This nanny mayor started as a Democrat, then went Independent and now a Republican. Bloomberg is a phoney the reason he changes parties is because, which ever ticket is open at the time for him to run on he takes. He will probably be mayor of NY for eternity the way he is going.
RoughAcres
First he was a Dem, then a Repub, now an Indie. Facts are important.
ChrisS
Really? And have my life run by a billionaire from New York? That might not already be too far from the truth, but I'd rather it not be so blatantly obvious.
mrbadexample
For all his 'accomplishments' and all the millions he dumped into campaign ads, Mike bloomberg just barely won a squeaker in NY. As for his 'successes', there are huge clouds on the horizon--most of the municipal unions played ball with Bloomberg and kicked the can down the road, reasoning that their negotiations with his term limit-enabled successor would be easier. Rank and file of most unions is calling for blood after seeing the city give away huge chunks of money for the new stadiums and Atlantic Yards. Should any of the East River bridges close due to deferred maintenance, the bloom will be off the rose.
As for how Bloomberg plays with the indie voters in Peoria, his news network doesn't have the footprint outside of the city--there are valid reasons to attack him for fiscal irresponsibility and his overly ambitious embrace of developers. I suspect that the local media have had kid gloves on out of professional courtesy, but that stops the minute he makes a 'fact-finding' flight to Iowa. And frankly, he's not going to put up with scrutiny of his private life--he's made that clear at City Hall, but it won't work with the guys from Drudge or Politico.
I suspect that come 2012, Bloomberg is going to regret not riding off into the sunset.
klatuu22
Speaking as a strong and committed independent--I voted for Michael Bloomberg of NY in a write-in vote in the 2008 election--I believe Michael is exactly what we need to make our country strong and prosperous. Like me, Michael is a social liberal--middle of the road--and a fiscal conservative--its the economy, stupid! and I think that is what our country needs now, and after the Obama Administration takes the country to new lows. I will vote Michael Bloomberg in the 2012 election and would be the first to open his campaign headquarters here in Oregon and promote his candidacy to my fellow independents.
Leary7
Is there anything more intellectually irritating, and culturally dangerous, than a public relations whore like McKinnon masquerading as a journalist. To offer up his "expert knowledge" that Bloomberg would be a viable presidential candidate in 2012 while never once mentioning the guy just barely won the mayoral race in NYC despite outspending his opponent by millions is pure evidence of McKinnon's genetic dishonesty.
McKinnon is a whore, pure and simple, and the Dailybeast is an intellectual bordello. Madame Tina reigns.
piktor
This is the same author that repeatedly said Gov. Sanford had a future and later said Sen. Ensign had a future.
Bloomberg has to hate Obama to do a Ross Perot.
Bloomberg does not hate Obama. End of story.
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n--Y--squareyellowpapersteve-annie
Gee, Mark, I hope he's paying you well. And I love the fact that you mention term limits after Bloomberg bought off the City Council to overturn the term limits NYers overwhelmingly voted for. And then, despite his $100 million spending spree, he barely managed to buy his third term. If the Democrats had put up a serious candidate against him, he'd have lost. Doesn't really matter though. Bloomberg hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell of winning the presidency. The electorate may have a short memory, but not that short. With the economic crisis we're in, and the reasons for it, the last thing they'll vote for is a filthy-rich (emphasis on filthy), self-made (on the backs of everyday people), union-busting, egomaniacal, power-grabber like Bloomberg.
Dragonfly2100
You people in the Beltway are so oblivious to the world outside of your bubble, it's comical. What amount of cough medicine does it take to think Bloomberg could pull a win in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, not to mention conservative Western states carried by McCain and Bush and must I remind you of the South? He would come in forth in every primary and drop out about twenty millions dollars poorer.
Nighty, night sweet prince.
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n--Y--squareyellowpapermrbadexample
You won't find a bridge to nowhere in NYC. You'll find three East River bridges that haven't been properly painted or maintained since the Koch years. If you want an eye-opening experience, walk across the Brooklyn Bridge promenade and look at the rust patches.
Bloomberg left the city far less able to deal with the kind of contingencies now on the horizon. He continued and extended the tax breaks to big constituencies like Wall Street even after 9/11, when it was clear that all the added security measures and police would add huge bills to the city's annual budget. Add to this the over-the-top armed camp the city was turned into for the 2004 Repub convention (and the tens of millions in lawsuits paid out for unlawful detentions of protesters), and it's clear that Bloomberg has not had any sort of balance to his administration.
Lastly, NYC is the Sodom and Gomorrah of the Republican base--look at how the hinterlands treated that 'Hero' Giuliani. Bloomberg has even less traction than Rudy (his hero creds are lacking), and he'll be a polarizing figure for the repubs no matter who they nominate. McKinnon is floating a trial balloon that won't fly.
winston1
Bloomberg is a liberal democrat.
CountRaoul
Mark's article is not about who 'should' be president, but who 'could' be president. Bloomberg's attractive outside of NYC, every bit as much as BO. It would take a lot of brave people to make the leap to a third party, but it may be just about time.
amantell
There's a good chance I would have voted for Bloomberg in the last election had he gotten past the primary process or gained enough headway as an Independent. Amusingly enough, he is a bona fide RINO, having joined the GOP because he didn't think he could have gotten the Democratic nomination in 2001--and he was probably right.
Having said that, Bloomberg would probably make an excellent president. He's proven to be a true public servant and not just a plutocrat who entered government in order to feed his ego, and New York City has been better off for having elected him. The successes MacKinnon's enumerated in this article are real, and not just the pandering of an opinion writer.
Bloomberg's enormous wealth has proven to be an advantage: because he's self-financed, he's not beholden to the power brokers of either of the major parties or special interest groups. Even Obama, who I generally trust, is somewhat influenced by his party's demands and the need for fund raising.
The salient point on which Bloomberg might be trusted more than any candidate the Democrats or GOP could produce is that he can truly comprehend the financial mess we're in and come up with viable solutions. I can't imagine any of the Wall Street titans can snowball or bulldoze him the way they have members of the Bush and Obama administrations.
RoughAcres
Um... I live in New York, and I don't know anyone who "hails" Bloomberg as "the greatest mayor since Fiorella LaGuardia."
Bloomberg is competent, but he has no soul. The Little Flower WAS New York.
steve-annie
Sure you do ... Mike Bloomberg! He's convinced NYC would shrivel up and die without his fearless leadership.
piktor
Homerun!
Cforchange
I think competance is exactly what we need. Why would you expect anything like soul from your government? That's the problem in a nutshell and there are a number of nutty pols that can be proof in the pudding here.
Bring on the expert business person please!!!
mfkpadrefan
Mark...NYC has a 3 term limit. eh? interesting tidbit.
I'm an Obama voter and I see no reason to change after 10 months. But I voted for Perot in '92 notwithstanding that the guy's personality drove me nuts! I just saw Bush for, well, what he was, and I saw Clinton for what he became...no ethics or morals. But I voted for him in '96 because he was a damn fine POTUS even with his personal flaws.
That being said, I'd be open to a Bloomberg candidacy. I know only the conventional stuff about him given I live in the far away NW territories of this paradise. But wouldn't he run into the same organizational problems that always plague independent candicacies....remember John Anderson? Don't they need certain organized entities...examples, labor unions (demos) & evangelical churchesa (repubs)...to bring out the crowd? Money alone...well, Perot quit. Long time to 2012. We'll see how it flows.
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