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Obama's Secret Climate Pact
Charles Dharapak / AP Photo
It's no coincidence that one day after the White House announced new emissions targets, China followed suit with its own target. The Daily Beast's Richard Wolffe on the behind-the-scenes negotiations during Obama's Asia trip that could help break the climate stalemate in Copenhagen.
After the Olympic-sized disappointment of his last trip to Copenhagen, why on earth would President Obama want to travel once again to the Danish capital for next month’s UN climate talks?
The answer, according to White House officials, lies in several weeks of intensive behind-the-scenes diplomacy that the press corps entirely overlooked during Obama’s recent trip to China, and during the recent state visit by India’s prime minister.
"Obama is at the point where he feels on the verge of a breakthrough, based on the kind of talks that don’t get covered by reporters obsessing about state dinners."
Beyond the photo ops and press statements, Obama was pushing President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for the kind of climate deals that eluded him at the G8 summit in Italy in the summer – and have eluded international negotiators for the last decade. China and India have played central roles in blocking past agreements, alongside the US, in a seemingly intractable dispute between fast-developing economies and the older, wealthier polluters.
Now Obama is at the point where he feels on the verge of a breakthrough, based on the kind of talks that don’t get covered by reporters obsessing about state dinners. “He had extensive conversations with President Hu specifically on climate and conversations with the prime minister of India,” said one senior White House aide. “So he has been building momentum for a political agreement to be brokered at Copenhagen.”
That was the backdrop for Wednesday’s White House announcement of specific targets to reduce emissions “in the range of 17% below 2005 levels in 2020.” The next day, on Thanksgiving, China announced its own bargaining position to slow the growth of carbon emissions by 2020. Using a different standard from the US – measuring carbon intensity (relative to its own economic growth), China is offering a 40 to 45% cut below 2005 levels.
Environmental groups have criticized both the American and Chinese targets as too low. But the criticism was much sharper when it looked like President Obama might not attend Copenhagen. Now the White House says Obama believes he can be a decisive factor in turning the talks into a success. “He feels he can be a catalyst for getting a political agreement in place,” says one senior aide.
Obama’s decision to attend Copenhagen only crystallized over the last two weeks as the Chinese and Indian talks progressed, out of public view. However Obama will not stay for the conclusion of the week-long talks, and he arrives at the start of the conference before traveling on to Oslo, Norway, to accept his Nobel peace prize the following day. Instead, he will leave behind several White House and Cabinet officials, including Energy Secretary Steven Chu, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson and White House climate change czar Carol Browner.
By leaving early, Obama has drawn some European criticism since he will not be present for the later-stage arm-twisting that could be decisive in reaching an international agreement. Yet that scheduling decision also avoids any potential embarrassment in case Copenhagen ends up with no agreement whatsoever – a possible repeat of the Olympics fiasco. Speculation has already surfaced that the President might jet back to Copenhagen if a deal is within reach a week later. “Let’s hope there’s good karma in Copenhagen this time,” says one White House official.
The main difference between the Olympic trip and the climate talks: The White House has been doing its own prep work instead of relying on others. Obama’s personal investment in climate talks – from the G8 to his recent Asian travel – appears to have delivered some concrete, if modest, agreements. His prep has also delivered other benefits, including this week’s support from China for a strongly-worded, but limited, statement condemning Iran’s nuclear program at the IAEA. Both were overlooked during the Asia trip that was widely criticized for its lack of so-called deliverables.
However the climate negotiators may be more interested to hear about the kind of prep work the President has engaged in back home with his own Congress. Without a clear promise of binding US legislation, the Copenhagen talks may struggle to move ahead amid skepticism about America’s commitment to slowing climate change.
This week the White House was eager to point out that the President’s Copenhagen targets were in line with legislation currently before Congress. It also quoted favorably from a range of unlikely supporters, including Senator Joe Lieberman and several energy company CEOs, such as Jim Rogers of Duke Energy and Lew Hay of Florida Power & Light.
Whether those statements will satisfy the international negotiators, or add to any momentum inside Congress, is unclear. At least Obama will return from Europe with something golden and tangible in his hands: the medal dedicated to his Nobel prize.
Richard Wolffe is Daily Beast columnist and an award-winning journalist, and senior strategist at Public Strategies. He covered the entire length of Barack Obama's presidential campaign for Newsweek magazine. His book, Renegade: The Making of a President, was published by Crown in June.
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Richard Wolffe is Daily Beast columnist and an award-winning journalist. He covered the entire length of Barack Obama's presidential campaign for Newsweek magazine. His book, Renegade: The Making of a President, was published by Crown in June.
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Richard Wolffe is Daily Beast columnist and an award-winning journalist. He covered the entire length of Barack Obama's presidential campaign for Newsweek magazine. His book, Renegade: The Making of a President, was published by Crown in June.
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Richard Wolffe is Daily Beast columnist and an award-winning journalist. He covered the entire length of Barack Obama's presidential campaign for Newsweek magazine. His book, Renegade: The Making of a President, was published by Crown in June.
Baddchild
The emails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit that a whistle blower leaked out into the media, now known as "climategate," prove what a fraud Algore, Copenhagen and the so-called "Global Warming" really is. Now this nimcompoop of a president is going to go across the globe and commit to spending trillions more of the US taxpayers money that we don't have on a HOAX. America will never be able to recover from the debt that this administration is forcing upon us.
If anyone at the Daily Beast had any balls or gave a crap about the solvency of the United States they would cover the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit memos truthfully and honestly. What do you say DB, do you have the integrity to call this hoax for what it is or will you sit back and let jouranlistic ethics fall further into the abyss? C'mon get some balls DB.
hkjonus
Jump back under your rock loser. Are you the original creator of this crap or just some 5th grade educated moron fed by BeckLimbaugh? Because you look at the horizon and see a straight flat line, does not mean the earth is flat. You go one ranting and being used as a tool by whoever the fcuk had taken control of your little brain, while the other 99% of the planet moves forward.
OldCrow
The 'flat earthers' in this case are the fools who fell for the climate change scam. Read the East Anglia emails, there are many, many examples of scientists intentionally rigging data to protect their lucrative grants and programs.
We need to be good stewards of the earth and continue research, but shouldn't be Bernie Madoff suckers and fall for the Al Gore fraud.
kane1559
Are you serious? AGW proponents claimed that the debate was over, yet the emails suggest they were fixing the debate by influencing the Peer Review Process and withholding data from the skepics. If AGW is so certain, why the chicanery? I look forward to your profanity laced retort.
djaymick
What all you global warming advocates fail to see is that CO2 was always the predetermined conculsion. These emails prove what they would do if THEIR predetermined conculsion were questioned. Maybe there is a different solution. Are we willing to accept a huge cost of living expense at the cost of predetermined conclusions?
Dumbonchief
99% of WHAT planet? Most Americans don't believe that crap and any that do are just ignorant - cows that follow the heard and believe anything big-brother tells them.
Mikemike
The e-mails from East Anglia are damaging to the scientists involved, but not to Climate science as a whole. A much larger conspiracy would have to be uncovered. The vast majority of physicists and climatologists believe in climate change. Climate science is no more a conspiracy than the theory of evolution. This is getting tiring, really.
fenngibbon
What you fail to comprehend is that it's easy to get people to believe anything if you rig the data and suppress dissent, which is exactly what has been happening according to these emails. And the scientists involved in this scandal are some of the leading voices in this debate, so claiming it doesn't extend beyond them is nothing but whistling past the graveyard.
The very basis of the argument for human induced climate change (or whatever AGW is being called nowadays) is called into question by these emails. The fact that so many seem curiously uninterested in this and that Obama suddenly seems hell-bent on addressing an issue that may, in fact, be an illusion makes one wonder what is really motivating them.
fenngibbon
In addition, it's not just the CRU. Findings by AGW advocates in New Zealand are now getting called into question, and the Goddard Institute in the United States is being sued for failing to comply with Freedom of Information Act requests for its data.
Aslanleon
Vast majority of physicists and climatologists? A lot of the signers of the AGW climate declaration are neither. There are three thousand of them, including biologists, landscape architects, and plastic surgeons. Thirty thousand have signed the petition questioning it, and their bona fides are as good or as bad as the signers of the pro AGW declaration. Hansen himself is an astronomer, a discipline I have some education in. I'm not an expert on climate either. And neither are you. As for Al Gore, be serious. He has a D and a C in 100 level earth science courses. He's not even qualified to judge compared to me, and I'm not worthy of the Nobel Prize either.
Thehawk1619
Maybe not a conspiracy, but they are sure trying awfully hard to enhance their positions by out and out lying.
treetracker
So your explanation for melting glaciers and polar ice caps is?????
fenngibbon
Variations in solar activity, which has at least three effects:
One, the direct impact of solar radiation on the earth
Two, changes in solar activity affect the heating and cooling of the oceans, which in turn affects currents, El Nino/La Nina, etc.
Three, increased solar activity means greater solar wind, which means less cosmic rays striking the earth, which means less cloud formation (research has shown that cosmic radiation increases cloud formation); fewer clouds mean more solar radiation reaching the earth, and, therefore, more heating.
fenngibbon
I forgot to put in that these are natural variations in the climate. The fact that the warming in Greenland is making previously frozen Viking settlements accessible to archaeolgists would support this--unless you think the Vikings somehow had knowledge of SUV's and outboard motors that was then lost for 1000 years.
Dumbonchief
Part of the normal cycle of things. My God, how can you be so conceited to think that humans can really change the earth's climate to the point of it being destroyed?
The earth will go on long after humans no longer exist.
Aslanleon
Same way we explain growing glaciers and a growing Antarctic ice shield. Weather is variable. Itgoes in cycles. Sometimes there is more solar activity. Sometimes there is less. We call this science. I certainly don't think that belching cows is causing global climate change. That would be absurd. funny, though.
AlanD2
Aslanleon: There are only a handful of glaciers that are growing, while thousands of others around the world are retreating.
Even the growing east Antarctic icecap is a mixed blessing for your claim, as the increased humidity that contributes to this growth is caused by warmer air temperatures (Global Warming strikes again).
And the west Antarctic icecaps are shrinking, and many ice shelves (such as the Larsen B) are disappearing.
Finally, about 3 cubic miles of ice are lost from Greenland each year now, and the rate of loss is increasing. If the Greenland icecap completely disintegrates, ocean levels will rise 20 to 23 feet. So long, New York City, New Orleans, and Florida!
AlanD2
fenngibbon: Variations in solar activity have been thoroughly debunked as a cause for today's global warming. See:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11650
fenngibbon
Sorry, but that article is 2 years old and only addresses the direct impact (Effect #1 in my response).
fenngibbon
I forgot to add that while the effect of solar activity on cosmic rays has been discussed for a while, the impact of solar activity on the oceans is a relatively newer factor that's been considered (see, for example http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/08/090827141349.htm)
Maezeppa
You have been duped by polluters and lying propagandists. "Climategate" is a total sham. Nothing that was released undermines the data that confirms what has long been known: human activity has accelerated climate warming.
fenngibbon
Apparently you are not aware of the implications of Climategate. You say "Nothing that was released undermines the data..."
The emails talk about faking the data! What do you think "hide the decline" means? And they're doing that because, in those emails, they speak of how there hasn't been any warming for the last ten years.
AlanD2
fenngibbon: As 2005 is the warmest year on record, neither you nor the e-mails can claim there hasn't been any warming for the last ten years.
By the way, please don't post any more links to the blog of Senator James M. Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), a diehard AGW denier and a proponent of coal mining and oil drilling.
AlanD2
fenngibbon: The whole "Climategate" incident is a tempest in a teapot. Check out this if you want facts rather than fiction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_e-mail_hacking_incid ent
(Remove any spaces if you copy and paste this link.)
fenngibbon
AlanD2:
Ooh, Wikipedia. Thanks for the definitive source material.
As for the warming or, rather, the lack thereof, for the last decade, even AGW advocates acknowledge that there hasn't been any warming (e.g., Kevin Trenberth: "The fact is that we can't account for the LACK OF WARMING at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't."--that's one the emails, by the way-- you might want to read them before commenting) One of my professors used to say that the findings he trusted the most were those that were clearly the opposite of what the researcher wanted to find.
Oh, don't you like links to Inhofe? Tough. Boo-effin'-hoo that he's a proponent of coal mining and oil drilling; it's not as if the AGW crowd is pushing their bilge simply out of the goodness of their hearts (Al Gore, for one, has gotten very rich off of this scam). Got proof that Inhofe has been falsifying data like the CRU crowd?
fenngibbon
And as for that list of people and organizations pooh-poohing this: yeah, I'm inclined to blindly accept the judgment who have invested years of effort, millions of dollars, their careers, and their reputations in pushing AGW on material that shows they're wrong.
oldlady
Don't call me when the polar bears show up in your back yard.
gzitaly
The climate change issue has been discussed by numerous scientists for decades and has been subjected to rigorous peer review. If a news piece is sufficient to change your mind about a scientific fact it means you did not spend the time in learning what climate change is all about. Let's first learn our alphabet before we criticize prose.
fenngibbon
Since the authors of the emails talk about gaming the peer review process in their favor, "rigorous" might not be the right word for what's been going on.
Curiouser
The most "conservative" conservative in the world - the Queen of England - is demanding more effort from the "commonwealth". http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20091127/trinidad_091127/200 91127/?hub=TorontoNewHome
What the heck is wrong with climate change deniers? Are you all doomsday fanatics? Or are you really hoping for "The Rapture" in the most un-solid bit of written evidence - The Book of Revelations - to be more accurate than today's scientists?
Please help or get out of the way.
fenngibbon
Considering that it's you and your ilk who are refusing to consider the evidence of fraud contained in these emails (and the confession by AGW advocates that there hasn't been any warming for years), you're not in a good place to accuse others of religious fanaticism.
gameon
Crisis loving liberals need drama to feel special.It must be such a let down to find out all your "science" is bogus.You'll have to find something else to make your life feel worthwhile.Can't you see that you've been completely discredited?And to think that scam artist Al Gore was almost our President,what a joke.
Curiouser
Another odd thing... All of a sudden there is the flurry of climate change denier activity on this site. I suspect it's because Obama's trip to Asia has produced far more results in one quick week than BushCo accomplished in miserable 8 years.
fenngibbon
There's a flurry of activity because Our Glorious Leader seems hell bent on ramming through a deal even in the face of evidence that the issue in question has been subject to massive fraud by its lead proponents.
As with his attempt to rush health care through this summer, he seems terrified that if people have time to actually think about the issue and what he wants to do, the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.
SimonSaize
I watched Jane Goodall speak for an hour today on the state of the environment, and thought "they're listening, honey" but can't hear you.
kokuaguy
It is terribly discouraging that a small number of scientists (whose impatience with the tactics of climate change deniers led them to use dishonest tactics to fight back) is now responsible for setting back the cause, perhaps for years to come. Of course the truth will eventually win out, as it did when the tobacco industry paid hacks and whores to lie about the science for years. But time is not on the side of the truth. Climate catastrophe is imminent. Perhaps this is why the scientists at East Anglia Research Unit were led to use the tactics they did. But the old saying is still true: two wrongs don't make a right.
Here's a very impressive blog by a lay person in Finland who has put together a collection of the research papers that don't rely on computer modeling, but rather scientific observations of natural phenomena such as melting of ice caps etc. I urge everyone here to take a look at it.
http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/
Zaphoddbblbrx
I find the issue of climate change amusing because no one has done the chemistry of combustion. The climate seems to have warmed up solely due to the heating effect of burning all fuels as well as using electricity. When we use a hair dryer, electric stove, toaster and simple breathing we heat the atmosphere.
Just 2.2 lbs. of coal will heat 56 tons of air by 1.8 degrees Farenheight. When this heating effect is subtracted from all climate models there is absolutely no "green house effect"
It doesn't matter where we get the energy from it will eventually heat the atmosphere.
Higher levels of Carbon Dioxide may be a good thing as it will allow better crop yeilds and the rate we are using Carbon now it will take 1000years to get to a temperature that is 8 degrees higher than it is now.
The total energy use over the past 210 years is only the equivalent of 140 days of sunshine. It is time to stop the nonsense . We will run out of coal and oil before the ice caps melt.
Baddchild
Look a the polls you asswipe, the rest of the country has awaken to all the crap you and the other global warming hoax douchebags are trying to pull. Thats why 0bama is going to run over to Copenhagen to appease you liberal loonies while he still has a job, creating a carbon footprint the size of Rhode Island. That is all he has left is you whack jobs, he's lost the right, the Independents and the moderate lefties.
Funny, you don't debate anything about the global warming hoax, just call names and accuse me of having my mind controlled. Yet, there sits all those emails, all the evidence you need to see that the global warming hoax has been exposed for all its bullshit and all you can do is spout Algore 3:16 like a good little mind-numbed robot. Think for yourself man, set yourself free and get off the doom and gloom crowd and join the rest of the World. I guess we'll just have to wait for the Penn and Teller episode.....
suzannewynn
Baddchild--I don't see a link to these emails, I am interested to read them, I am fascinated to read how thousands of scientists have commited fraud to keep there grant money. I tried finding these emails, please post a link that would make your arguement more legit.
OldCrow
suzannewynn
Google is your friend.
There are several organized catalogs online showing the email trails between scientists looking for ways to hide and distort data.
Perhaps even criminal activity - we need a full investigation since billions of dollars are being spent on these fraudulent grants and studies.
kane1559
www.icecap.us is aggregator site. Please note the recent article on "warming" in New Zealand.
rvail136
Suzannewynn,
here's a quick link to about a dozen...if you don't want to read the article, then just hit the emails links.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/three-things-you-absolutely-must-know-about -climategate/
here's a link to climate research news
http://climateresearchnews.com/2009/11/climategate-emails-reveal-inconve nient-truths-about-the-scientific-process-and-ipcc-reports/
but most importantly, here's a link to EVERYTHING! It's huge...start reading, you won't be happy. Until this came along I was just someone who didn't agree or disagree...but now, I've actually tried to do something with the source code for the climate computer programs (I write code in FORTRAN77) and the programs just don't work. Not at all. I genuinely feel sorry for the poor bastard named Harry who spend 3 years trying to make this crap work, it just pure KLUDGE! Reading the readme.doc files is enlightening to say the least. You have to constantly make manual inputs, that don't always take, and often times the beast keeps on running even AFTER it posts a fatal error message (program should stop at the point). More importantly, at one point, when you should be getting positive readings, you end up with negative (i.e. directly opposite of what you should have).
But in this day and age...just don't take anyone's word for anything. Read the stuff yourself. There's a reasons why CRU has tried to hide both their data and methodology because with the programs they have, because they can't match what the historical record is. Nor can they match what is occuring now...a period of cooling.
Here are a few emails:
From Michael E. Mann (witholding of information / data):
Dear Phil and Gabi,
I've attached a cleaned-up and commented version of the matlab code that I wrote for doing the Mann and Jones (2003) composites. I did this knowing that Phil and I are likely to have to respond to more crap criticisms from the idiots in the near future, so best to clean up the code and provide to some of my close colleagues in case they want to test it, etc. Please feel free to use this code for your own internal purposes, but don't pass it along where it may get into the hands of the wrong people.
From Nick McKay (modifying data):
The Korttajarvi record was oriented in the reconstruction in the way that McIntyre said. I took a look at the original reference - the temperature proxy we looked at is x-ray density, which the author interprets to be inversely related to temperature. We had higher values as warmer in the reconstruction, so it looks to me like we got it wrong, unless we decided to reinterpret the record which I don't remember. Darrell, does this sound right to you?
From Tom Wigley (acknowleding the urban effect):
We probably need to say more about this. Land warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming - and skeptics might claim that this proves that urban warming is real and important.
From Phil Jones (modification of data to hide unwanted results):
I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline.
From Kevin Trenberth (failure of computer models):
The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
From Michael Mann (truth doesn't matter):
Perhaps we'll do a simple update to the Yamal post, e.g. linking Keith/s new page--Gavin t? As to the issues of robustness, particularly w.r.t. inclusion of the Yamal series, we actually emphasized that (including the Osborn and Briffa '06 sensitivity test) in our original post! As we all know, this isn't about truth at all, its about plausibly deniable accusations.
From Phil Jones (witholding of data):
The skeptics seem to be building up a head of steam here! ... The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick. Leave it to you to delete as appropriate! Cheers Phil
PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data. Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !
From Michael E. Mann (using a website to control the message, hide dissent):
Anyway, I wanted you guys to know that you're free to use RC [RealClimate.org - A supposed neutral climate change website] Rein any way you think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through, and we'll be very careful to answer any questions that come up to any extent we can. On the other hand, you might want to visit the thread and post replies yourself. We can hold comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you'd like us to include.
From Phil Jones (witholding of data):
If FOIA does ever get used by anyone, there is also IPR to consider as well. Data is covered by all the agreements we sign with people, so I will be hiding behind them.
rvail136
http://isohunt.com/torrent_details/143434809/Climategate Emails And Docs?tab=summary
that's the link to everything..thought I'd put it in earlier...enjoy
oldlady
Nobody thinks you've been subjected to mindcontrol - as it requires that one have a mind.
ElBorba
So you feel so weak in your position that you feel that you have to use personal insults, funny nicknames and rant?
To those of use intelligent enough to understand the context of those e-mails, and not try to bend them to suit our personal uneducated beliefs, (yes "beliefs" as you have no solid evidence to back your assertions) we see no proof of any of your so called conspiracies.
AlanD2
The "0bama" troll reveals his/her/its ignorance of climate science.
MataHari
Is here ...
This is a test. Wait for instructions.
theonetruman
First of all, Richard Wolffe is a huge douche. Secondly, the Chinese and Indians will cheat, period. This treaty is a waste of time, money. What the Chinese (and us for that matter) care about is energy security and pollution... not eco-fundamentalist dogma.
rdeemer
they are cheating already. Chinese GDP growth averaged 9.4% over the last decade. Compounding that growth for 15 years implies a projected growth of (1.094^15) = 3.85 times or 385% in 15years.
Reducing that by 45% = 55% of 385% growth. Thats 212%
So China is promising that its pollution normalized by GDP in 2020 would be capped at 212% of what it was in 2005. That's a 112% increase in pollution.
Therefore headline should be China promises to double pollution by 2020. Please someone prove me wrong.
Curiouser
At least we know who is in the way - brazen anonymous posters on websites. I hope we don't get blinded by special interests which have brought us to the brink of catastrophe. Bush falsified and fabricated and altered climate data for years. So it's not surprising that opportunists will use any available data to further the need for war and carbon emissions.
Timbo131
As we all know conservatives are liars.There are no qualifications just liars.Not all republicans are liars just all conservatives.They are the ones who wiped out most of the indigenous populations around the world. They are the ones who ran the inquisition and were responsible for millions of deaths.They are the one behind the nazi's in Germany and again responsible for millions of deaths.They are the same beings that were responsible for the witch trials.They are the ones who fought medicare and equal rights for women,they fought the civil rights movement.They say the want to protect their children and grandchildren but they are hypocrits in all that they say and do.All they want is to rape and pillage the environment for their own pocketbooks.Just because there are some e-mails floating around that you probably helped create doesn't mean a thing.There is nothing you can say that will change the truth.Conservatives are the whores of the world.God will take care of them later.They seek satisfaction in their punny little lives by bashing the truth.Their shallow lives will never be satisfied because they do not deserve to exist.
cletustheslackjawedyokel
Somebody needs a hug...
turkeyfish
It would be more apt to say that they simply believe in bearing false witness.
If one actually does reads the emails in question, which were stolen and then sifted through by the anti-science crowd to cherry pick those passages that might be used to smear otherwise reputable scientists, you will see that as usual the critics are just hyperventilating and can find no science to support a lack of global warming as predicted (or more warming than presently predicted by climate models, which have failed to consistently model the effects of oceanic circulation).
Of greater concern is how more honest but more poorly uneducated millions will respond as the climate crisis grows more acute. One no longer needs to look at the temperature data. The gravity data now clearly shows that loss of glaciers and ice-shields worldwide is DRAMATICALLY accelerating and human agriculture and fisheries are in for a very rough time of it. Of utmost concern is the pace of the changes, far faster than most organisms will be able to adapt or evolve to cope with during critical periods (prolonged periods of drying and or heat during sensitive periods of life cycles: mostly larval and juvenile stages). Keep an eye out for corn, rice and soybeans. If yields begin to dramatically fluctuate, as they typically will prior to a biological crash, the human condition will grow increasingly dire for hundreds of millions, with the rest to follow.
It is sad that so many think that they live on another planet and what effects Obama, democrats and environmentalists won't affect them. The irrational will slow humanities response to the worsening crisis.
For all those who still think its just a hoax, keep in mind that in less than 30 days will determine if 2009 will go down as the 5th warmest year in recorded history, of which 8 of the last 15 have produced records or near records.
activeduty
You're right. Every conservative worships Satan and eats small children.
suzannewynn
baddchild, and I had to comment on your comment about the debt our Prez has put us in, how funny people like you forget it was brought on by the last admin and 8 years of fighting a war that is unwinnable. Amazing... if our Prez had not passed a huge stimulus you same people would have castrated him for doing nothing... hindsight is 20/20... the lame duck who was in office passed the first stimulus due to his lack of braincells to protect the American people from a downward spiral and now he regrets his actions... what an idiot... no one is happy about the debt this country is in but at least he had the balls to do something... what would be better is to arrest all the wall street types that steal from the Average American worker...
kane1559
You really need to learn to read. Deficits under GWB were 3-4% of GDP, Obama has now set on a course of deficits of 10-11% of GDP. As for the stimulus, it included recurring entitlement programs that are not stimulative and will be very hard to remove which is the problem.
Timbo131
just more lies
Aslanleon
Just keep posting accurate facts. It seems to push Timbo over the edge. Of course, he has no facts of his own. Sad case.
turkeyfish
You seem to forget that it was under GWB that the stimulus package was rushed through and signed and that we continue to live under the negative momentum generated by 8 years of republicanism. One doesn't bring a crashing ship to a halt all at once, nor can one quickly turn it in another, safer direction. Obama is doing pretty good. We've gone from about -15% growth during the last few months of Bush to 1% under Obama in just one year. Once the tax breaks for the wealthy expire next year, we should begin to see budget deficits begin to shrink rather dramatically, which won't come a moment too soon.
AlanD2
turkeyfish: It was the TARP bill that Bush pushed through, with bipartisan support from Congress. The stimulus bill belongs to Obama and Democrats.
crypto
How many time do you have to be told. There was no stimulus. The "set aside" money the administration called stimulus was nothing more than a slush fund for the administration and congress. Now they've wasted it on things like high speed trains for Pelosi and Reid and are calling for another one. One thing for sure when the vote on the health care is called for, every congressman and woman there should call for their payment just as La. did. This administration won't stop, unless they are stopped forceably, until the government controls every aspect of the american peoples lives.
Timbo131
just more lies
Timbo131
time to get a grip on reality.But let me assure you that no one will be knocking on your door tonight to strip you of your rights.
turkeyfish
Actually, most of it went to various banks and Wall Street firms to bail them out so they wouldn't have to exercise the fine print in most mortgage contracts and throw so many homeowners out on to the street. Unfortunately, most seem to have pocketed much of the money instead of using it for lending and reinvestment that would bring the American economy back. Instead, they have decided to see if the republicans can get back in and then make the bailout permanent.
oldlady
I think that ball started rolling on your guy's watch. The current Prez just picked it up when it hit rock bottom.
A word to the unwise - you gotta spend money to make money. Don't worry about deficits, sweetie, they were here before I was born and they'll be here afer we're all gone and every generation will figure it out for themselves.
sonofloud
Oh give me a break !!!!
It is time for the Obama apologists to come up with new excuses.
We are all bored with the Obama is so brillarnt he is playing 10 dimensional chess and we mere mortals cannot understand it.
"in the range of 17% below 2005 levels in 2020." lol why bother? that is such an insignificant change a decade from now it will be useless.
I guess all of those icebergs on their way to New Zealand are just a figment of our imaginations???
Timbo131
lies
turkeyfish
You seem to think that its only Obama's actions that will decide the fate of humanity. What about your own and those of billions like you? Its the accumulation of billions of individual behaviors that are at the heart of the problem.
It will be very difficult to retool the global economy on the time frame that the climate change crisis calls for. World leaders are in a box in that it takes time to educate people and find solutions, especially when so many are running around like fools, crazies, and opportunists making it even harder to solve problems.
Would you rather Obama be forced to declare martial law and begin to mandate changes in personal behavior for the sake of reducing greenhouse gases. Republicans routinely throw tantrum when they don't get their way. How do you suppose they would respond to drastic, emergency measures? My guess is more like the Taliban every day.
sonofloud
We have Obama's "secret" Afghanistan troop plan and now Obama's "secret" climate plan......when exactly will the great Obama include the American public in his secret plans?
fenngibbon
Ah, yes: behold the "transparency" promised by The One.
Timbo131
ah yes just more lies
Timbo131
ah yes behold the no babies having a hissy.
fenngibbon
You're right, Timbo131: Obama lied through his teeth when he promised more transparency. Good of you to see the light.
Timbo131
just more lies.
Timbo131
he will have his secret group of nasties coming to take you away!!!!
Dumbonchief
Timbo, ever think about seeing a shrink? You got some issues pal!
melissamsouza
..."intense...behind the scenes diplomacy that THE PRESS COMPLETELY OVERLOOKED during Obama's Asia trip.." Yes., including yourself, Mr. Wolff, who was one of the first who jumped on the Bash Obama in Asia bandwagon on this very blog--what was it? "Obama's Bad Asia Trip"--and you played right into the hand of the Tea-Party-Birther freaks who seem to be taking over the comments section of this blog. I myself stated in my comments to both your article and Leslie Gelb's (with the same "bash-Obama" gist) that most foreign policy negotiations TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE SCENES. You and your fellow punditry are not in on it, that's all. But since rushing to conclusions and creating dramatic (albeit false, and hurtful) headlines are your metier in this 24/7 news cycle fed by the nanosecond, then let's have fun bashing Obama! Just as you and your ilk jump to baseless conslusions to bash Obama, you did so in jumping on the gung-ho Iraq WMD-Saddam-Al Quaida mega-lie, bogus bogus bandwagon to get us into that tragic, historical screw-up we're in now. This is why the media has been completely discredited and is losing ground to other forms of communication; you people are not doing your homework, pure and simple. Either you're muzzled by corporate interests and don't do the investigative reporting necessary to act as a balance on the shameless propaganda of governments (case in point, the Cheney-Bush McCarthyites), or you are simply too greedy for rushed, catchy and incorrect headlines to make hasty, unfounded cases (Obama's Asia Trip bashing). Either way, you media folks are profoundly disappointing.
ndspinelli
Relax, Melissa. the errand boy is back in the fold. He won't be contrary again...he's learned his lesson. Give the poor man a break!
crypto
More meaningless words about nothing. Obamason is doing precisely nothing except ride. You can't logically defend it so you go back to blaming Bush. Bush has been gone for 18 months, if you count his lame duck time. So at what point do you dipsticks begin to take responsibility for this Lame Duck.
Timbo131
I dont blame Bush.I blame his handlers.Just more lies
rottenart
He's been gone 18 months but he was in office for 8 looooooong years. What a disaster.
ndspinelli
When this syncophant author posted his last piece it has a bit of a hissy fit. Instead of the usual glowing, adoring Obama piece, it was a little nasty. You know, like when a little girl gets shut out from the "in crowd." I predicted @ that time that the prez would give him a smile and a cookie and all would be better. The cookie can be read today!
What Mr. Wolffe fails to mention in SPECIFIC terms is the Chinese will be INCREASING their CARBON output. There is no controversey on this point. "Using carbon intensity" are the Orwellian words used when Mr. Wolffe describes what the Chinese promised. In English, the Chinese will be building many new POLLUTING COAL plants in the next 20-25 years. They made NO PROMISE TO CHANGE THEIR SOURCE OF ENERGY. They will reduce the emmisions from these HIGHLY TOXIC plants a bit. Their net carbon footprint will be increasing by at least 5 fold. This is the great Chinese deal our prez got. Whenever you read this author, remember what he represents. He is a PR man, not a journalist. Now, if he gets slighted by Obama he can get nasty. He showed the prez that w/ his last piece. So the prez learned his lesson[don't slight Mr. Wolffe], and the author is back in PR mode. All is right again in Wonderland
turkeyfish
Before we get too carried away with bashing the Chinese, keep in mind that Americans produce far, far, far more CO2 per capita than does the average Chinese.
Don't get too surly, arrogant, and insulting of our bankers lest they drop the boom and start selling dollars and investing in only other currencies. Your apparent wealth and likely your job, will disappear in a flash and all the republicans in Congress and on Wall Street will be demanding higher taxes to insure that the buying power of their salaries are not further eroded.
BillSanford
Mr. Wolfe writes...
"However the climate negotiators may be more interested to hear about the kind of prep work the President has engaged in back home with his own Congress.".
I think everyone in Washington, especially Obama, should check in with the voters back home... in case no one is in Washington is looking, here's a newsflash: the vast majority of Americans want nothing to do with any "cap and trade" taxes or other "gouge the Middle Class" liberal ideas.
The rich liberals in Congress can afford to pay these extra taxes; the American Middle Class, being hammered on all fronts by new Big Government fees, laws, and taxes, simply cannot.
crypto
Heck Bill these liberal politicians don't pay the taxes they owe now. Barney Frank and Charlie Rangle have said openly that they have no intention of paying. And you're absolutely right on this cap and trade. When some of these flippen knowitalls finally see what this bill will do to them and their families it will be too late. But problem is everybody goes together when we go down.
Timbo131
no the conservatives dont want more cap and trade responsibility.The rest of us who are the majority want the cap and trade.You sit there telling us you dont want to leave a legacy to your children(debt) yet it is ok to leave your children and grandchildren a polluted world where it is getting harder and harder to breath.Where you cant even drink the water without treating it .I think some may call that hypocritical.
BillSanford
Timbo131... Look around you.
You are being lied to; You are confusing "Environmentalism" with "Global Warming"... Intersection vs. Congruence.
We are not going to leave our children & Grandchildren a polluted world - China might, Japan might... but the US will not. Our breathing air quality is fine, thank you. As for drinking water... "treating it" has been practiced for decades or even centuries... depending on the size of the urban area you choose to live.
So, fight your battles on evnironmentalism... you can do some good; "Global Warming" is a cooked up hoax designed to raise taxes for general govt fund use, and to provide government stimulation for 'green' business that waste jobs investment.
Aslanleon
AGW isn't good science. It doesn't have models that can be demonstrated to predict the past any better than a randomly generated set of numbers. It speaks of higher average global temperatures for a period when one third of the monitoring stations were closed-- and nearly all of these in Siberia. The East Anglia documents prove that data was ignored or altered and the situation was exaggerated to produce more interest in their ideas. The list goes on and on. Worst of all, they refuse to accept the doubts and scientific data of those scientists who disagree with them, using strictly ad hominem arguments to demonize them. It's not science versus ignorance-- it's simply bad science. The major advocates of it aren't even climatologists-- Hansen has a degree in astronomy and chemistry. Al Gore has two science courses to his credit, with a D and a C .
If the pro AGW forces find it necessary to virtually criminalize scientists who disagree with them, they do not have a strong argument. If they did, they wouldn't need to do so. Also, they would be open for a purely scientific debate on the subject. They are not.
In the last century, scientists have predicted global warming twice and global cooling twice. They have predicted widespread famine by the eighties. They have predicted world wide plagues that would kill billions. They have predicted that the oil would be all gone by 1955, 1970, 1990, 2010, and whenever they are predicting it now. They said all our forests were dying of acid rain when they weren't. They said the ocean would die by 2000 of several different causes at different times. Perhaps one of the times they predict disaster it will be true. I doubt very much that the AGW claim is that one that is true.
crypto
Thank you very much, Asianleon.
turkeyfish
What planet are you living on?
Even if one totally ignores the temperature data, gravity measures clearly demonstrate that the polar ice packs are melting an an accelerated rate and will likely, at their current rate of increase, raise mean sea levels about 10-20 m in less a few hundred years. That simply hasn't happened before (except momentarily during asteroid impacts or unusual geomorpholical events (filling of the Black Sea). A twenty meter rise will put nearly 60% of Florida underwater not to mention virtually all of New York city.
Now reflect that our current economy can hardly accommodate the shock of Dubai defaulting on its debt. Now compare that to the costs associated with humanity being forced to relocate more than 500 million to 1 billion people in the next 10-20 decades, at the same time freshwater becomes increasingly scarce due to lack of meltwater, unpredictable rainfall, and increased human demand. Nearly all of Dubai will be underwater even if they manage to get their payments back on schedule.
No one is calling for criminalizing scientists. This is just more "death panel" rhetoric associated with anti-science paranoia and political tantrums that are intended to divert attention away from important issues.
To the contrary most scientists would be extremely happy and very much relieved if you could just point to even one credible published scientific finding that shows that the Arctic isn't dramatically warming and that the rate of melt isn't accelerating.
Humanity is in a crisis folks and trying to make political martyrs out of scientiss and pretending the earth isn't heating up rapidly isn't going to solve the problem.
kane1559
Revealed: Antarctic ice growing, not shrinking
The results of ice-core drilling and sea ice monitoring indicate there is no large-scale melting of ice over most of Antarctica, although experts are concerned at ice losses on the continent's western coast.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/revealed-antarctic-ice-growing/stor y-e6frg6no-1225700046908
I am sorry I didn't hear you, what did you say?
danceswithtrees
Now that "Climate gate" has been exposed Obama would be an idiot to commit the US to any commitments on this. We need full Congressional hearings and a full fledged "serious debate" on this issue. It is obviously no longer a "settled issue" when the leading scientists on this issue feel they need to "trick the data to hide the decline" as well as conspire to hide their work from their peers and conspire to keep all dissenting articles from being published. The lid has been blown off this scam. The odd quiet out of the WORLDS MEDIA speaks to perhaps a larger conspiracy. I'm tired of the environmentalists owning the debate, and ruining our economy as their junk science and saving Salamanders and spootted owls have ruined our farming and logging communities. ENOUGH. Write your Congressman today. Let them know. We want full Congressional hearings on CLIMATE GATE!!!
turkeyfish
Wake up fella. There is no "climategate". Its just a figment of the standard republican noise machine, to be sopped up by those who can't even read a thermometer.
kane1559
Republican noise machine?
A UN scientist is declaring that his three fellow UN climate panel colleagues "should be barred from the IPCC process." In a November 26, 2009 message on his website, UN IPCC contributing author Dr. Eduardo Zorita writes: "CRU files: Why I think that Michael Mann, Phil Jones and Stefan Rahmstorf should be barred from the IPCC process."
www.icecap.us
MrBeastley
Nice analogy, you've got my thermometer rising! The Republican noise machine is a strange phenomenon, bordering on disease, those who want, but cannot, preach.
MrBeastley
What's so secret about the weather channel? Everyone knows which way the wind blows! - Bob
Timbo131
And I am sick of you capitalist pigs ruining the earth with your money making rape of our environmrnt
crypto
Well if you stick with the other idiots, maybe, just may be the capitalist pigs will become the socialist pigs you and the other scum want. Then you can have everything you want, mostly for free, as you seem to prefer. BUT you won't have anyone to blame. And you won't like that.
Timbo131
Well at least I served my country in the USMC in Vietnam.What did you do Crypto ?I fought for your right to tell lies and for you to be able to post online.What have you done other than take?What have you done besides lies?why don't you go cry to mama.Tell me what is socialism?Do you drive cars or do you walk.Have you ever flown in a airplane?Did you go to school or are you home schooled.That is socialism.FAA school, military medicade, social security, all socialist programs.If you really mean what you say then take yourself off the medicare and give back your social security check.Also you need to get your mommas check too.Wake up id io t.Take youself off the welfare roles get a job where you actually work.Do something useful.Carrying a sign in a tea party protest is not work.Conversing with adults who have the mentality of a third grader is not work.Do something besides polluting the environment.Give someone a helping hand instead of a hand in their back pocket stealing their hard earned money.
Timbo131
Calling names is for third graders and I sometimes wonder if even saying that might insult our third graders.Get a life go to school oops to socialist for you maybe your momma will take you in show you what a book is.(You read them)
crypto
Timbo131: Ok let's compare notes. I did three tours in Nam. Another sob challenged me on my service a couple nights ago. Now you want to know where in Nam/ begin by telling me where you were and we'll go from there.Ahhh hell no. I served in II< II, and 1v corp. Da Nang, Phuhip, Phanrang, Tuyhoa, Quinoun, Phu Bia, and Laos, MuGia territory. I was there for the '65 and the 68 TET. Since I retired I have built houses for the underpriviledged. Last year I gave two vehicles to the home for wayward girls, both in class A condition. Now what have you done, Marine??? If you're proud of your service stand up and be counted. You didn't serve and fight for what is happening to our country now.
Aslanleon
crypto -- I was in Viet Nam for two weeks and was wounded twice. They sent me home for nearly terminal bad luck, I think. I guess that qualifies me as an expert on everything, like Timbo. I seriously doubt that Timbo ever set foot west of San Francisco. There's no use in getting into a fight with his type, though. It just becomes a mud fest, the preferred venue of pigs.
MrBeastley
Timbo131 - we all choose our destinies, the darkness is here to serve the light. Get over it and get with the program, victim mentality works both ways for those who kill as well as those who are killed.
Aslanleon
If you want to see some real pollution, go to the old Communist states and the socialist Third World. The capitalist pig countries are the ones which have the cleanest air and water. A weekend in North Korea near one of their steel mills would be a valuable experience for you. A Cuban nickel mine would be a great educational experience for you as well.
Timbo131
The capitalist pigs were made to clean up the environment by people like myself.You on the other hand did what?I would bet dollars to donuts that you proclaimed loudly that if god wanted clean water and air then by god he should come on down and do it himself.Then you joined a teaparty and hung out with your peers as you smoked and polluted the air with your lies.
crypto
Aslanleon: Backing up to 'nam. Yeah that certainly qualifies you in the bad luck area. But we're both looking good. Lotta buddies didn't have any luck at all. And again you're right on this. I try not to but when the challenge arrives I forget. I need to get off here for good. For all I've said I wish this administration luck. But I'll swear I don't see how we're gonna get outta this. I just visited thenationaldebtcalender.org a little while ago. Man we're going down faster than I thought. What a debt. Anyway thanks for the advice and glad you made it.
turkeyfish
If you want to see some real pollution, go to West Virginia. There you will see whole mountains that have been leveled and the heavy metal laden debris allowed to wash into streams that provide drinking water to thousands.
fenngibbon
Wow, you really are an idiot, Timbo131.
Read up on environmental conditions in communist countries. Assuming you can read, that is.
Timbo131
As expected the posters who claim to be human have resorted to calling people idiots.What does communist countries have to do with this or socialism.If you did just a tiny bit of reading( which I do )you would notice that the alleged communist countries are not really communist.They are dictatorships with several dictators rather than one.So how about doing a bit of research before you start on the name calling.
crypto
TImbo131: Back up and answer my reply. Where the hell were you in "Nam??? I told you where I was.
crypto
Fenngibbon: He's no Marine or he would step forward. In or out always true to your service to country and fellow man. NO He's no Marine.
Aslanleon
crypto - it is cruel to call Timbo an idiot. Idiots are a product of nature. They can't help themselves
Nitwits, on the other hand, are people who have made themselves stupid by laziness and poor logic. This would be the more appropriate epithet, I think.
fenngibbon
I'm wondering if Timbo actually reads his own posts as he writes them or simply channels some long dead leftwinger who died of degenerative brain disorder as he types. Given that he declared in one post that conservatives are genocidal rapists and liars, and then complains in other posts of writers who call other people names, I'm inclined to suspect the latter.
Alternatively, he may simply have multiple personality disorder, in which case it's only good manners to state which one is posting at any given time.
Or, and, upon further reflection the evidence supports this, he is simply too dense to comprehend the inherent contradiction in his writing.
ndspinelli
WOW... Mr. Wolffe, Ms. Brown, There aren't very many positive comments here. And this is a left of center site. There are a few kooks who hate Obama and myself and normal folks dismiss them, but I'm sensing a shift in the masses. Time to order more koolaid.
connie47
A lot of left-of-center folks, like myself, rarely post here anymore. We've gotten tired of being drowned in a sea of fringe right cursing, name calling and low-level diatribe. Nothing that passes for a real conversation happens at this site anymore and most of the left leaners are now occasional drop ins.
When the site started, there were happily a bunch of really smart conservatives to banter with. They've left, too.
ndspinelli
Connie47, To a certain extent I agree. It does depend on the topic. There are haters on both sides. I tire of the Obama,Clinton, Bush, Palin, screeds and polemics. Huffington is left haters. Where does one go for normalcy?
connie47
Where does one go for normalcy? Sad to say .... not online. I've been around online and have come to that conclusion with regard to news/politics, religion and even sports.
The anonymity of the computer allows people to say things that they would probably not say in person. I've asked people online if they would be willing to take what they just posted and pin it up on the bulletin board at work, or tape it to the refrigerator door at their parents' home. The question riles people up so much that I suspect it hits a nerve.
Aslanleon
Too many of the leftists here are nitwits. A few of the conservatives are as well, to be sure. I would be happy to post any opinion I have here anywhere. You would be hard pressed to find intelligent comment anywhere on the net. It is Gresham's Law-- bad money drives out good money. It is as true here as anywhere else.
collleeen
The conservatives are very active now. It could be their last line of defense.
Its clear that climate change is occurring, even just by observing local weather patterns. What many of the deniers don't understand is that the weather patterns will be more extreme locally and that only globally will the temperatures be rising. So every time there is a cold snap they say it proves there is no climate change.
But here in eastern Pennsylvania the weather is so mild today I am wearing shorts and its almost December. It has been exceptionally mild weather here. If that is followed by a brutally cold December that would fit into the extremes in weather patterns that would occur with climate change.
The media has not explained what could be happening very well and if people did understand no one would be buying land in Florida, or New Orleans or Long Island...because that land is so low.
Florida may be hit with unusually strong hurricanes because of the warming oceans. A good reason not to buy land there and a good reason for people invested in Florida to want to hide that information.
Thank you.
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