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The GOP Frontrunner Curse
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono.
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Mike Huckabee’s pardon of a cop killer pretty much ended his 2012 presidential hopes. Mark McKinnon, in the ninth in a series of posts on the 2012 landscape, on why every GOP frontrunner seems to wind up like the drummers in Spinal Tap.
The horrific murder of four cops in Tacoma, Washington, has redefined the 2012 GOP presidential landscape.
Mike Huckabee, who as recently as last week outpolled all other potential GOP candidates (and came within four points of Obama), in the flash of a gun muzzle, is out of here. Because in 2000, Huckabee granted the cop killer, Maurice Clemmons, clemency. So, while he may have a long and prosperous career on Fox News or as a motivational speaker, Huckabee is done as a political candidate. For good. Doesn’t matter what the circumstances were, doesn’t matter whether there was a convincing rationale at the time. This is politics, American-style. Stick a fork in him.
What was sauce for the Michael Dukakis goose, is sauce for the Michael Huckabee gander. Worse actually. For Dukakis, Willie Horton was a general election issue. For Huckabee, Clemmons (who was shot dead by police Tuesday) would be a primary election issue. And Republican primary voters are notoriously law-and-order fanatics. They would make Willie Horton look like an altar boy compared to Maurice Clemmons.
His implosion opens up a hole you could fly a plane through—for someone to capture the hearts and imaginations of the Christian right and Iowa primary voters.
Rush Limbaugh calls Clemmons “Huckabee’s Willie Horton.” Quin Hillyer from the American Spectator writes that “no amount of stagecraft featuring backlit crosses and folksy aphorisms should hide Huckabee’s culpability for such horrendous judgment.”
Compounding the problem for Huckabee is that his history makes clear Clemmons is not an isolated incident. During his tenure as governor, Huckabee pardoned or reduced the sentences of 1,033 inmates (including 12 convicted murderers)—a number twice that of all the clemencies granted by Huckabee’s three immediate predecessors—Bill Clinton, Frank White, and Jim Guy Tucker—combined.
During the 2008 campaign, Huckabee’s clemency record flared as an issue. In 1996, he granted clemency to Wayne Dumond, a convicted rapist and murderer who assaulted and murdered a woman in Missouri a year after he was released.
• More from McKinnon on the 2012 race The Clemmons’ killings pops the pinata on questions Republicans have been harboring about Huckabee. Jon Henke, co-creator of the blog The Next Right and a powerful voice for young conservatives, says: “It appeared that he was pardoning people who had friends who knew him or who’d had religious conversions in prison. It’s about Huckabee feeling his way to justice—not just criminal justice, because this pervades his thinking on a lot of policy. It’s illustrative of his bleeding-heart conservatism. This issue sort of opens up discussion again on the thing everyone already objects to about him.”
Even Huckabee supporters acknowledge the problem. “Huckabee was, and likely remains, a true believer in the concept of restorative justice,” says Joe Carter, who worked on Huck’s 2008 campaign. “Ironically, what makes Huckabee such an appealing presidential candidate—his empathy for all people and genuine belief in the individual—is also the trait that will prevent him from ever reaching the White House.”
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jomama
No one will ever be dammed in heaven or whatever you want to call it for granting clemency to anyone else. We have a Republican who understands the true message of Christianity - which is valid whatever your faith or philosophy may be - and he is dammed by his own followers. This is more a reflection of the hypocrisy of the religious right in America than anything else. He chose to carry a cross, now it's on his back.
Rawk5tar
Couldn't have said it better myself.
bryanlevi
Yes indeed. I just wish their searingly dark and twisted hypocrisy was addressed more pointedly in the media.
DevilsLawyer
I consider myself fairly liberal, and I still think Huck's pardons were wrongheaded. Maybe these guys looked like they deserved to get out early and maybe they didn't. Certainly no one is perfect in their judgment. Still, these are issues better handled by parole boards than by executive clemency, and Huckabee will justifiably pay the political price for trying to dispense justice on such a scale from the governor's office.
Glenda1976
One does not have to belong to the religious right to criticize the gov's awful judgment in releasing violent offenders. Huck's policy was foolish as was Dukakis'.
wrathofkhan
Call it the revenge of Willie Horton. Dems would tear him apart with this if Romney didn't first. The die was cast on this scenario long ago.
louiexiii
"We have a Republican who understands the true message of Christianity"
So are you true Christians still against giving to the poor and equal rights for ALL (including homosexual) people? Probably not, but in the name of true Christianity, lets pardon some more convicted killers.
/s
AlanD2
louiexiii: These true Christians are still against giving health care to the poor.
As long as they can prevent one abortion, they don't seem to care if 45,000 uninsured Americans die each year because they are too poor to afford treatment.
KuroTenshi
Selflessness is not a virtue they espouse. Even their charity is motivated ulteriorly by a need to convert. Nothing they do is authentically for the good of their fellow man, it is ALL for the alleviation of their superstitious insecurities.
incognito-ergo-sum
Forgiveness does not equal clemency and release from prison. Why do you mix the two up? We can forgive and even love the devil out of the bad guys, but let them serve out their sentences.
Mariafrania
Are you joking? Who cares about Huckabee being damned in heaven or not? Who cares about his understanding of whatever religious message here? Prison is meant to keep dangerous people separated from their potential victims. Huckabee released dangerous criminals that a judge deemed unsuitable for society, and now 4 cops and their families are paying the price for his "philosophy".
crypto
Yep Huckabee, on the advice of the parole board let him out. And like so many others it will probably destroy Huckabee. But I find it ironic that just a few weeks ago people on here were raising hell that a seventeen year old was given a life sentence. This guy was on a 95 year sentence. Young people shouldn't get those kind of sentences it was said. Those that argued that if you let 'em out you risk this type thing were almost cursed out. OK, where the hell are they now. Crusifying Huckabee for doing what they were raising the devil about a couple weeks ago. Real experts on killers.
xlntcat
The fact that this man was given a 95 year sentence at such a young age should have given Huckabee grave doubt about leaving the door open that he would not continue to be a danger to others. Huckabee allowed ideology to prevent him from making a judicious decision that protected the public.
djanimaequeen
I don't know who said 17 YO shouldn't get life sentences but it wasn't me. Lock the little fu*kers up if they think it's okay to kill, rape, and maim people. I was a teenager once and it never crossed my mind to go have some fun by raping and murdering people. I don't care how young they are a sociopath is a sociopath and the sooner they are put away the better off law abiding citizens will be. If you disagree then prove your conviction by adopting one of the evil little bastards.
AlanD2
What about 15 year-olds? Or 12 year-olds? Or 8 year-olds? Kids of these ages have all killed other people.
Where do you draw the line? Or should they all be executed?
djanimaequeen
Alan. All of them. Lock em up.
So if your 8 YO killed your 4 YO with no remorse (I'm not talking accidental but cold blooded murder), are you telling me that it might just be a "phase" and the kid should be allowed to live a normal life? If so, lets send all the murderous children to your house.
AlanD2
I see there is no Christian spirit of forgiveness in your veins, djanimaequeen.
idicula1979
I bet you that in the south ( the republican base) he would still get more votes then Mitt Romney.
jimmeee
This list of republican front runners is truly pathetic....I hope they run Palin....Satan could beat her...
YogiBarrister
Beat her? Who do you think is funding her campaign?
louiexiii
lol!!
floridabob
Oh please don't install Palin the front runner yet. We don't want her to fall victim to the "curse". It would be great if she were to become the GOP nominee.
AlanD2
I agree floridabob. Sarah is the dream candidate for us liberal Democrats.
Go Palin, 2012!
sophia5
Keep dreaming.
Liberals are continuing to avoid the obvious.
Huckabee was not a frontrunner
as Mr. McKinnon might have you believe,
just so he can have a catchy contrived headline
to fill space with . . . the " CURSE "
Mitt Romney will be the Frontrunner and
enjoy the next three years Libs, because Obama is
one term and done, and if you don't believe it,
just ask all the moderates who voted for Obama
because it was the " cool " thing to do.
But, now the obscene growth and power grab by this administration
is scaring the hell out of any reasonable moderate person.
Admit it. Romney is a smart guy who can
match wits with Obama, except unlike Obama,
Romney actually understands economics.
So keep " hope " alive with your delusions of Sarah Palin
as the nominee. Everyone understands, she's not smart enough,
and will never get enough support, except from the
likes of the vacuous Michelle Bachmanns of the world,
or Small-Town-Church-Lady,
and there just aren't enough of them.
djanimaequeen
Mitt's a mormon and I don't think American's are ready to accept such a fringe religion. But you go ahead a keep "hope" alive on that one sparky.
AlanD2
You are right, Sophia. Huckabee was never realistic.
Mark Sanford and John Ensign are the great white hopes of the Republican party.
By the way, Christian conservatives will never support Romney. And guess who's the base of the Republican party?
crypto
sophia5: The effort most of the librals have made to keep this running thread against Sarah Palin I believe is more comical to the right than the left She will not run in 2012. But I hope she keeps the jackass braying and kicking. The real game plan has gone right over their heads. You're right on the one term and I believe Obama knows it. So he's going to do everything he want's and can get away with in these next three years.
kord81
sophia5 and crypto just predicted what will happen in the near future....how refreshing that you two dim-wits could tell what will happen 3 years from now.
jeffro
Power grab? Against who?
The patriot act was a power grab from the people.
FISA was a power grab from the people.
Torture memos were a power grab from the people.
Refusing congressional subpoena was a power grab rom the people.
Bankruptcy bill was a power grab from the people.
manipulating energy markets was a power grab from the people.
TARP (both of them) was a power grab from the people.
I sure hope Obama can grab some power from our crooked industries (pharm, insurance, investment banking, defense contracting, etc) and return it to the people.
I doubt he will, but I don't get how that makes me vote republican instead.
AlanD2
I hope you're wrong, crypto. I'm rooting for Sarah in 2012!
After all, who is better qualified to be the next know-nothing President?
brownjackson
Actually during the campaign, it seemed every week we saw the back of some small-town-church-lady's wig who demanded to see Obama's 'birf cir-tif-a-kit' or who swore he's an 'arab'. So maybe they're more than enough to keep the crazy going!!!!
crypto
The republican party is in the best shape they have been in a long time as far as elections are concerned. It doesn't matter who they run they will win. People, even a lot of the liberal voters, are absolutely fed up with this congress and this President. Nineteen trillion dollars in debt over the nex ten years, no jobs, lie after lie, "I promise open government. You can't tell me that if we can put a man on the moon in ten years that we can't figure out a way to burn coal, one of our nation's greatest resourses." And we're going to redistribute the wealth in this nation" As far as ACORN and the unions of this nation I promise you a seat at the table". All of this won't be forgotten. Whoever runs against him will win.
bobj72
Dream On "cry too", Dream On..... Unfortunately, it makes you look like all the other Azzes, that bet against President Obama in the 2008 Election.
You're tootin' your horn...... but ain't no sound coming out!
tolatetocry
isn't Hollywood trying to get a cop killer out of jail as we speak in Ma? Huck liked to mingle with the liberal types and this is what he got, just saying! His RINO tendencies got him!
nortonclybourn
Hard to interpret this garbled spew, but it seems to(sic)late thinks Huckabee wasn't pure enough. Let's sacrifice more Republicans on the altar of purity until the faithful can vote for an extremist in the primary and spend the next four years jeering from the sidelines.
tolatetocry
what are you ranting about? He's gone, dude, he screwed himself! how many liberals you hear standing up for him? None!
JLF1200
Sorry, but nobody will listen to anything you say until you fix the misspelling in your user name. I mean, seriously-- how do you screw that up?
Oh well, forget it. Nothing you say ever makes sense anyway.
AlanD2
You expect conservatives to make sense, JLF1200? Seriously?
tolatetocry
you people need to quit dissing my public school education. My teachers were affirmative actions teachers and that's just racist calling their students stupid! I got all A's damn it! Have respect!
JTS1021
I'd say his Christianity got him because that's why he did it. Conservatives hate the Bible because its chock full of stuff they hate: giving a portion of your money to the poor (Jesus hearts welfare!), forgiving those that have committed crimes (sorry Huckabee), not judging those that are different, banning torture (oh, I'm sorry, banning "advanced interrogation techniques"), loving your neighbor as yourself (even your non-white neighbors), and my person favorite to bring up around conservatives: God's instruction to not mistreat or oppress illegal immigrants (Exodus 22:21, a verse I recommend all liberals memorize if you want to piss off a member of the Christian Right and really, who doesn't?).
You get a Republican candidate who follows a Bible verse that doesn't involve abortion or the gays and he's pretty much completely screwed. That's why Huckabee was never going to win the nomination even before this happened.
farser
I love it. You've misspelt "too" in your user name. You're a moron.
DakLak
You've misspelt your user name ... one F too many.
AlanD2
It's easy to see what you Lak, Dak.
vbeals85
Your list is not correct. How about
1. Glen Beck
2. Rush Limbaugh
3. Lou Dobbs
4. Shawn Hannity
zizanie
Sure, Vbeals85, thorw them all in. Toss in Ann Coulter and any other political trash talkers. Start with at least 20 candidates and see who is left at the end.
vbeals85
Zizanie, you are right, Ann Coulter, Bill O'Reilly, Michelle Malkin should be in the list. Those are the real leaders of our GOP/conservative party
AlanD2
vbeals85: Your list is not correct either, as it lacks any women (gotta be PC, you know!). Please add:
1. Ann Coulter
2. Michelle Bachmann
3. Michelle Malkin
Mauiboy
Now there's a cat fight. It's revenge of Thunderdome with a twist: Three go in, none come out!
finderj
Well, yeah, Huckabee is out.
And for a silly reason.
Except this: having no clear criteria for clemmency is the sort of muzzy thinking that lets a man give his word on a position/vote/decision/agreement and then change his mind.
Because the boundaries aren't set, they are changeable.
Situational ethics are great if you are the offender.
Not so hot if you are the victim.
Cforchange
And again, MM 2012 Top 10 = Obama for 8.
rjcrawford33
So, after bringing to light one of the only decent things I have ever heard about him - that he can actually think and act on his concepts of redemption-, the GOP is ready to spit him out. This is sad.
Grimmace
I wonder if the victims (Cops families) of Huckabee's redemption share your feelings about this being a decent act of Gov. Huckabee?
As a Republican, I can't spit him out far enough. A nice guy, but not a man I want in a leadership position.
AlanD2
Grimmace: I wonder if the victims (soldiers and civilians) of America's wars share your feelings about the Republican party.
As a Democrat, I can't spit you guys out far enough. Many Republicans are nice people, but I don't want any of them in a leadership position.
djanimaequeen
Bravo Alan!
crypto
Wonder how far the librals and the pres will spit Hasan for killing 13 at Ft. Hood. Or may just swallow real hard and let his slide??? I wonder...........
Dreamer4Ever
With any luck, Sarah Palin sees those doors and "doesn't blink." Run Sarah run!
Keep Tina Fey employed forever! And rob the Republicans of any credibility they had left!
DevilsLawyer
I second this wholeheartedly: Run Sarah run! That would be one hilarious campaign, with all her baggage from `08 and the famous Quittage of '09 dogging her. Which is why I think it would be Romney rather than Palin, except I don't see him as nearly "pure" enough to survive a Republican primary.
AlanD2
I agree, DevilsLawyer. Palin in 2012!
And I don't see the Christian conservative base of the Republican party giving Romney any support. A Mormon? Never!
keepakeeper43
All the Repugs are rallying completely, totally around Sarah.
They dont have a choice.
The Repugs have n o b o d y else.
Huckabee is just a poor stiff. A schmuck. The poor guy followed the recommendation of a prison panel and granted the guy a break. Governors are loathe to do it for the fear here realized but they are just following recommendations. This just guarantees the loss of parole, probation & clemency for hundreds of poor souls.
Huck was never, ever in the race. Fugettabouit!!
Palin's the one!!
Carnival Clown GaGa LaLa Sarah!!
Shes the LOCK for Obama!!
RUN!SARAH!RUN!
Eykis121
Snowbilly Grifter keeps staying at the top of the Rethugs, but I am willing to bet they will throw her out soon. She takes too much attention from the men and she is too silly to get elected. Even the Rethugs are not that suicidal. Teabaggers, yes, the GOP, I wish they were and maybe my wish will come true. I've seen John Thune being tossed around as the current new great white Rethug.
Erock1
If anything good comes from this, it's that conservatives can see the liability of religious candidates. Do you really want someone who's going into the next war/economic crises/immigration problem/etc basing his decisions on his/her religious impulses as opposed to reasoned rationale?
What am I saying, of course you do. Armageddon anyone?
Grimmace
As a conservative, I totally agree with your analysis. Though I think Huckabee is a good man, I don't want him anywhere near an executive office. Redemption, compassion, and tolerance are great personal attributes that one can give to others in their personal lives but they have no business in the duties of political office where a dispassionate adherence to the rule of law is necessary.
crypto
Someone once said "Fool me once shame on you,
"Fool me twice shame on me"
Even the loudest noise makers will not vote for Obama again. And the elections will be closely watched so as to not have a repeat of the last one. I have no idea who will run against him. But whoever it is will win.. The democrats should think about that for themselves.
Glenda1976
When was Jindal or Sanford ever front runners?
AlanD2
Remember when Jindal gave the Republican response after Obama addressed a joint session of Congress, Glenda?
It was only 9 months ago. You conservatives sure have a short memory when you throw somebody under the bus.
KuroTenshi
That short term memory is what allows them to act shamelessly and learn no lessons when they get screwed by their own party.
periscope
The problem with every Republican "front-runner" is that they are all selling the same snake-oil from the same collapsed wagon. For the Republicans the articles of faith include: 1. More tax cuts for the rich. 2. Deregulation and laissez faire policies even in the face of corporate crime that brought our economy to its knees. 3. More belligerence against the world and more dependence on the military than on diplomacy and rebuilding alliances.4. Blocking healthcare reform, which will wreck Medicare and Medicaid and leave millions of Americans in dire straits.
The results of all this will swell the budget deficits and cause the financial collapse of the U.S.A. The Republicans are not only wrong and irresponsible. They are dangerous.
After thirty years of wrongheaded, warmongering, financially incompetent and corrupt Republican governments, only those who are suicidally stupid don't realize their menace.
Eykis121
Excellent post, Peri.
crypto
"only those who are suicidally stupid don't realize their menace". Now you know where you can apply that. You liberals are following Pelosi and Obama down a tunnel. Even now Obama is becoming panicky himself because this thing isn't working out on recovery. But I'm telling you honestly that if the administration doesn't listen to people who have made this country what it was before this economy collapse we will not recover. I'm sure Obama is doing all he can to make things happen. But he just doesn't know how.
tstar3
I love it Romney is smart but Mormon (not that I have anything against it u know Huck actually said the person who found Mormonism and the devil were brothers-wow) and Sarah is dumb as a box of unlicked stamps but those Beckers, Dittoheads love her...oh 2012, when will you get here?
crypto
2010 is what you should be worried about just now.
bobj72
"cry too"; It won't be 'real wise' "putting all your eggs in that 2010 basket!" Remember, Folks willing to ADMIT they're Republican'ts are in the Low twentieth percentile (20%) level.
carriel
If Jesus ran for the GOP he wouldn't get voted in what with the free health care for the poor, turning the other cheek and throwing out all the money lenders. He's a dreaded socialist.
Grimmace
I don't ever remember Jesus demanding Government and the implicit threat of force that it brings be utilized to bring about healthcare for all. Perhaps you can cite the bible verse.
Christianity is about personal virtue, not about forced virtue through the force of government. That's why Conservatives typically give more to charity than Liberals.
Eykis121
Grim, WHAT part of healthcare is being FORCED?
The majority of Americans WANT HEALTHCARE.
johnsmith1882
Um, I'm no expert on the Bible, but didn't Jesus heal the sick? Lepers, blind people, that kind of stuff? I don't remember anything about him charging a co-pay for his services. The pre-existing condition of leprosy didn't stop Jesus from healing lepers, and he did it for free.
crypto
Eykis121: The majority of Americans want healthcare for themselves and their families. The force part is this administration taking from those who are bustin' their butt to support their own families and giving to those who aren't, haven't, won't. It simply comes down to Obama's idea of redistribution.
bobj72
"cry too"; That explanation (or "shakey spin") of yours, doesn't even DESERVE an Adult Response. A "Middle-Schooler" could offer a more cogent and rational argument.
Thank you.
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