Cheat Sheet

Is the election already decided? Nate Silver flags some important data from Colorado and New Mexico. According to new polls, two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballot and Obama has a 10-point lead; 55 to 60 percent of New Mexicans have also already voted, with Obama leading there by 17 points. Elsewhere, Nevadans have already reached 53 percent of their 2004 voting totals, and Obama has a 23-point lead in Las Vegas’ Clark County and a 15-point lead in traditionally Republican Washoe County. These states plus Virginia and Iowa spell an Obama victory, even if McCain’s Hail Mary succeeds in Pennsylvania.

“In the coming weeks,” James Carville writes in today’s Financial Times, “watching the Republican party implode will be the main event.” The focus will probably be on the McCain campaign, but Carville says that “the truth is that there was little Mr. McCain, or his campaign, could do with a party falling apart at the seams.” The Republican brand was destroyed by Iraq, Katrina, Alberto Gonzales, Terri Schiavo, and Wall Street long before McCain became its bearer. “My counsel to Republican friends would be to keep pointing fingers but lay off the political professionals as much as possible,” Carville finishes. “They were not the ones responsible for the disastrous Bush-Cheney-Rove policies that Americans so desperately want to reverse.”

Lest you begin feeling too sorry for struggling investment bankers, the Financial Times reports on a recent SEC settlement that provides a window into their former excesses. Lazard Capital Markets agreed yesterday to pay $2.8 million in order “to settle civil charges accusing the firm of letting its employees improperly entertain traders at Fidelity Investments to win business.” What exactly were these improprieties? Fancy meals, high-end hotel rooms, race-car-driving lessons, adult entertainment, wine, a $50,000 bachelor-party contribution, and—here’s your kicker—a dwarf-tossing competition. Lazard’s and Fidelity’s employees deny any wrongdoing.

This is certainly a step up from X-Men: The Last Stand: The Guardian reports that Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart will star together in a London production of Waiting for Godot. The two originally discussed swapping the roles from night to night but have now settled on McKellen as Estragon and Stewart as Vladimir. “I first saw it when I was a student 50 years ago,” McKellen said, “and the play was on tour through Manchester after its tumultuous West End run, baffling, infuriating, and astounding by turns."

About to celebrate her 70th birthday, Queen Sofia of Spain has stirred controversy for her first public comments after three years of silence. Her thoughts were published in a book called La Reina Muy de Cerca (The Queen Up Close) written by the journalist Pilar Urbano and published this week. Up until now, nobody knew what Her Majesty thought about abortion, religion, gay marriage (which is now legal in Spain), and euthanasia. The book suggests that she advocates teaching Catholicism in schools; is against gay marriage and gay parades; and is staunchly anti-abortion. Gay rights and women's groups have expressed outraged. The monarchy is trying to reduce the damage, claiming the Queen’s words were taken out of context.

Next Tuesday, the Supreme Court will hear the case Federal Communications Commission v. Fox Television Stations. The FCC wants the court to restore its authority to ban barnyard epithets from the airways. But the more pressing question is whether Chief Justice John Roberts will allow C-SPAN to replay the audio tape of the oral arguments, and whether The New York Times will quote from the uncensored transcripts. Defense lawyer Carter G. Phillips says, “Unless the Court tells me not to, I would not shy away from using those words,” explaining that it would be cumbersome to use “the f-word” and “the s-word” as the stand-in terms. Then again, if the tapes do air on C-SPAN, perhaps the FCC will sue Phillips. It’s a f****ing catch-22.

Dressing as a pirate for Halloween? The New York Times' Jeffrey Gettleman has a guide to the Somali pirate lifestyle that may offer some inspiration. Show up at a party in a big car—that's how Somali pirates roll. Maybe accessorize with some items of the pirate's favorite booty: "Sheep, goats, water, fuel, rice, spaghetti, milk and cigarettes." And, if you're looking to pick up a lady, try dancing and serving her goat. "It was wonderful," said one Somali woman of a recent pirate party. "I'm now dating a pirate." Kidnapping civilians and ruining your nation's economy in the Somali fashion, however, is probably taking the costume one step too far.

Attorney General Mike Mukasey, unlike his predecessor Alberto Gonzales, has kept a low profile since taking over the Justice Department last year. That may be less because of discretion than the fact that he spends so little of his time in Washington. McClatchy reports that Mukasey has racked up $155,800 in taxpayer-funded airline expenses for personal trips. Mukasey travels to New York nearly every weekend, and was absent D.C. for a third or more of February, May, July, August, and September. As a point of comparison, Defense Secretary Robert Gates took fewer than six personal trips over the same period of time.

It has come to this: Sarah Palin is the candidate sent to speak freely in front of the public, while Joe Biden is kept on a short leash. According to The Times, Team Obama is so worried about another Biden gaffe that he has been confined to local media in Greenville, N.C., Danville, Va., and all kinds of villes in between. Biden no longer wanders into the press section of his plane and hasn’t given a press conference since September. On the plus side: His favorability ratings are 60 percent, 15 points higher than Palin’s.

Another day, another shock poll (to borrow Drudge’s phrase) showing the race tightening. Yesterday, Mason-Dixon had John McCain closing to within four points in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But the oracular pollwatcher Nate Silver points out that the poll is an outlier; two other PA polls had Obama up 12 and 13 points yesterday. A second moment of angst for Obamaphiles: a Fox survey showed McCain within three points nationwide. Well, Fox’s sample included a high number of Republicans. So far, Silver sees no evidence the race has “tightened materially.”

Culture 11 bring us the Halloween Spirit Presidential Index, which polls 625 costumers on which candidate's mask sells better. Currently, Obama mask leads McCain mask 62 to 38 percent. This is significant, because the index has successfully predicted the last three presidents. Throwing a kink in the formula, however, is the unprecedented popularity of the Sarah Palin costume. Palin variations include the "sexy trapper" (with gun and fur-rimmed strapless top) and Miss Alaska (pageant sash and American flag bikini). Might this spell an Election Day upset?

Here’s something to think about in the wake of a likely Obama victory: What will happen to Jon Stewart? The Hollywood Reporter notes a whole corner of showbiz and TV news has risen in prestige over the last eight years as the opposition to the Bush administration. Think Stewart and his mockery of White House press conferences; Olbermann and Maddow; Franken; Colbert; and so forth. With Obama in the White House, these left-leaning personalities will likely have to try a different tack, one that could lessen what makes them so appealing—their righteous indignation. Of course, Franken may be able to try out new material in front of the Senate.

A recent study by University College of London suggests that women who drink lightly during pregnancy have smarter babies. The study—reported in this morning’s Guardian—looked at more than 12,000 children and found that boys born to mothers who had one drink a week or less scored higher in vocabulary tests and identified shapes, colors, letters, and numbers better. Daughters of light drinkers were 30 percent less likely to have emotional or peer problems. Caveat: the authors of the study could not isolate the mother’s drinking from other factors such as family background.

Want an economic solution that neither John McCain nor Barack Obama will be proposing? Sharia law. The Washington Post reports that Islamic banking is weathering the financial crisis much better than its Western counterparts. Sharia law mandates built-in protections from excessive risk taking, like bans on interest and trading in debt. A scriptural condemnation of usury means "money cannot just sit and generate more money. To grow, it must be invested in productive enterprises." So banks invest their clients' money and share the profits or losses. Islamic banking grows at about 15 percent a year.

Among Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez’s many displays of public bravado, this ranks right up there: Yesterday, the Venezuelan government launched that Venesat-1, a telecommunications satellite that has been baptized "Simon Bolivar.” Chavez was filmed watching the launch from Venezuela along with Bolivian President Evo Morales. Venesat-1 will expand its signal through the Caribbean, Central and South America and, according to the Venezuelan president, will contribute to the "construction of socialism of the 21st century.” "What does a satellite have to do with socialism?" Chavez asked. We’ll leave you to ponder that.

A spy working for one of Mexico's most powerful drug cartels had no trouble infiltrating the U.S. Marshals Service office at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City, according to a new article in El Universal. He found the position, criminal investigator, by browsing through the embassy's online job bank. "Felipe," as the man now under witness protection is known, had been on the Beltran-Leyva cartel's payroll since 2005, when he infiltrated the Mexican office of Interpol. The job at the U.S. Embassy allowed him to share with the cartel the names and telephone numbers of people under investigation by the DEA and the Marshals Service. In exchange, the Beltran-Leyvas paid him a monthly salary of $30,000.

As we saw with this week’s strike in Syria, it’s never a good idea to underestimate a lame-duck administration. As The Washington Post reports, "The White House is working to enact a wide array of federal regulations, many of which would weaken government rules aimed at protecting consumers and the environment, before President Bush leaves office in January." These include a lowering of drinking water standards, the easing of controls on greenhouse gases, and the removal of a key restriction on mountaintop coal mining. Once implemented, these rules can only be undone through extensive proceedings.