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The New Yorker’s George Packer has posted an interview with David Kilcullen, an expert on Afghanistan who “few experts understand counterinsurgency and counterterrorism better than.” According to Kilcullen, the war there is “still winnable, but only just.” He identifies four problems with the current strategy: 1) “We have failed to secure the Afghan people”; 2) “We have failed to deal with the Pakistani sanctuary that forms the political base and operational support system for the Taliban”; 3) “The Afghan government has not delivered legitimate, good governance to Afghans at the local level”; and 4) “Neither we nor the Afghans are organized, staffed, or resourced to do these three things.” A U.S. governmental transition usually takes six to nine months, Kilcullen says, “but nine months out from now will be the height of the Afghan fighting season, and less than a month out from critical Presidential elections in Afghanistan. If we do this the ‘normal’ way, it will be too late for the Obama Administration to grip it up.”
Marc Ambinder has more details on the much-discussed Obama-Clinton meeting this morning. The meeting was private, without Rahm Emanuel in the room, and was not a formal interview. Its purpose was to discuss “ways they can work together.” The rumors originated with New York Democrats, who are already angling for their preferred candidates to replace her as senator. In Washington, people are saying Obama wants Clinton in his cabinet more than Hillary wants to be in it—by accepting the post, she gives up her power base, loses her seat forever, and loses her voice on domestic policy. Why might Obama want Hillary? According to MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, “to get her out of the Senate. Just ask George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter what it was like to have a once or future presidential rival in the Senate serving as a one-person Roman tribunal.”
When Barack Obama was elected president, Russian officials apparently debated whether to send him warm congratulations or standoffish acknowledgement. The incident captured a larger debate in Russian circles: Do they try to twist his arm into supporting their positions should they be conciliatory and hope Obama is softer than Bush was? There does not yet seem to be a consensus, but both camps aim, above all, to convince Obama to cancel Bush’s plan to build a missile defense system in Poland. According to one expert, "Moscow is saying: 'If you want to change the world, as Obama wants, then we will be the biggest obstacle unless you deal with us'."
Something that seems to have slipped under the radar this week: John Whitehead, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs, predicted on Wednesday that the current financial crisis will be worse than the Great Depression. "I think it would be worse than the depression," said Whitehead, who was at Goldman for 38 years. "We're talking about reducing the credit of the United States of America, which is the backbone of the economic system." Whitehead worried that the ratings agencies will downgrade U.S. government bonds due to large deficits. Whitehead also served as Ronald Reagan’s deputy secretary of state and chaired the Lower Manhattan Development Corp after September 11.
The Times' Ben Brantley has nothing but applause for the musical "Billy Elliot," which opened on Broadway last night. The play, which is based on the movie, may sound rather sentimental—it's about a coalminer's son who loves ballet—but this production turns "tripe into triumph by making us understand the depth of the appeal of its classic show-business fairy tale, not only to us but also to the people whose dreary daily existences touch on Billy's." Elton John's score is "far more restrained than his more mawkish scores for Disney musicals." And the economic downturn "gives it a resonance it might not have had in 2005, when big spenders ruled with complacency. Billy Elliot is a hard-times musical."
Is Citigroup next to fail? Yesterday, Felix Salmon called America’s largest bank also its “most dysfunctional.” Since its current CEO took over, it’s lost $20 billion and 70 percent of its market capitalization. Salmon calls it “too big to rescue,” pointing out that no one could possibly afford it and says, should it come to it, Paulson’s only option will be nationalization. Last night, in a separate post, Salmon assured readers that the majority of Citi’s domestic desposits are insured by the FDIC. The real trouble is for those with uninsured deposits held overseas—which make up the vast majority of Citibank’s $773 billion deposits. “If even a large minority of those depositors ends up deciding to move their money elsewhere,” he writes, “then Citi, I'm pretty sure, is toast.”
A high-profile bombing in Europe and a middling television show seem not to have damaged Sarah Silverman’s brand. The New York Observer reports that HarperCollins bid $2.5 million for a book of Silverman’s comedic essays. She must now decide between editors at three imprints—Harper, Collins, and William Morrow. Silverman’s agent pitched the book as “Just like Tina Fey.” By that measuring stick, Silverman’s deal is a disappointment. Fey’s collection of essays recently sold for $6 million. And both women have been outdone by comedy’s leading man. Jerry Seinfeld’s book is drawing bids between $7 and 8 million.
Can Barack Obama stimulate the economy on his own before his administration takes it over? The New York Daily News reports that Obama’s campaign will be paying its foot soldiers an extra month’s salary with its leftover cash. "A lot of people thought they were going to be broke and would have to try to find a job in this rotten economy,” said one grateful staffer. “It's a huge help." It has also given them the option to keep campaign-issued BlackBerries and laptops, although they will have to pay income taxes if they do. The move is virtually unprecedented, as campaigns are usually broke come Election Day. Obama raised over $600 million over the campaign.
As if we needed more evidence of the ancient Greeks’ genius: a fourth century joke book features a joke that preempts Monty Python’s “Dead Parrot” sketch, which was recently ranked by Nerve magazine as the best comedy skit of all time. In the Monty Python skit, a man tries to return a dead parrot that has been sold to him by a pet shop owner (“It’s dead, that’s what’s wrong with it.”) In the Greek joke, a man tries to return a slave who has just died. "By the gods," says the slave's seller, "when he was with me, he never did any such thing!" The book is attributed to a pair of ancient comedians named Hierocles and Philagrius, who are believed to have compiled the jokes, not written them.
You know those weekly presidential radio addresses that you've never really listened to because the last time you owned a radio was in the eighties? Well, they're coming to YouTube. President-elect Obama will record this week's Democratic address on both radio and video, and the video will go live on YouTube on Saturday. This, along with the 1,800 videos he uploaded during the campaign, indicate that Barack Obama will be America's first wired president. He also plans to hold online forums and video interviews in order to put a transparent face on the United States government. According to one spokeswoman, "This is just one of many ways that he will communicate directly with the American people and make the White House and the political process more transparent.”
When Gero Huetter, a German hematologist, performed a bone-marrow transplant on a leukemia patient who was also suffering from AIDS, as a side experiment he transplanted the marrow of a donor who was naturally resistant to HIV, figuring that the new marrow would produce white blood cells resistant to the virus. Twenty months later, Huetter claims that the man shows no signs of AIDS. However many are skeptical whether the patient is really cured. HIV is known to hide in various parts of the body, and though Huetter has tested the patient, doctors wonder if he has been thorough. And even Huetter says that bone-marrow transplants are not a viable cure: They kill about a third of their patients and can’t be justified in treating anything but late-stage leukemia.
Congressional Democrats have been clamoring for a $25 billion bailout for the auto industry since they increased their majorities last week, but it seems unlikely that they'll be able to get it done before January, when the new Congress convenes. "I'd want to be careful about bringing up a proposition that might fail," said Sen. Chris Dodd. Majority Leader Harry Reid has indicated he intends to move the plan forward next week. The problem, as David Brooks writes in The New York Times, is "a bailout will not solve anything—just postpone things." Brooks says "no one who believes the companies are viable without radical change." Obama has promised to address this fact by appointing an auto czar to oversee reform, but Brooks asks, "Are we really to believe there exists a czar omniscient, omnipotent, and beneficent enough to know how to fix the Big Three?"
Lest you thought Obama wasn't serious about this "Team of Rivals" business: Politico reports today that some advisers are "strongly advocating" that Obama should pick Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State. "Some even call her the favorite," writes Mike Allen. Choosing Clinton over John Kerry or Chuck Hagel would be a huge upset. Why Hillary? Clinton has greater star wattage than the other picks; she could handle diplomacy single-handedly if Obama is forced to spend his early days working on the economy. The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reports that Clinton spent Thursday in Chicago on "private" business—could she have fit in a job interview?
The entire European economy has followed Germany into recession. The E.U. reports that GDP in the 15 nations using the euro shrank 0.2 percent last quarter, equaling its previous quarter. Consecutive quarters of contraction officially mean recession. It's the first recession since the euro was introduced nearly 10 years ago. Germany's recession will be its worst in at least 12 years, while Spain's recession is its first in 15 years. Italy is entering familiar territory, as this is its fourth recession in a decade. Surprisingly, France bucked the trend—its economy grew 0.1 percent, despite shrinking by 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. Expect Nicolas Sarkozy to rub it in his neighbors' faces.
Bill Ayers is challenging Sarah Palin in the media rehabilitation department. In addition to appearing on Good Morning America this morning, Ayers has written a new afterword for his soon-to-be reissued memoirs. In it, Ayers calls Obama a "family friend" and writes, "The more serious point is that Obama was asked once more to defend something that ought to be at the very heart of democracy: the importance of talking to many people in this complicated and wildly diverse society, of listening with the possibility of learning something new, of speaking with the possibility of persuading or influencing others." He rues his treatment by the "neocon media machine," saying that he never claimed he wished he had set more bombs, as it is oft quoted. "I killed no one, and I harmed no one, and I didn't regret for a minute resisting the murderous assault on Vietnam with every ounce of my being."
To the relief of Democrats everywhere, Osama Bin Laden failed to rear his head before the American election. So what, exactly, has Public Enemy No. 1 been up to? In a speech last night, CIA Director Michael Hayden said, "He is putting a lot of energy into his own survival, a lot of energy into his own security. In fact, he appears to be largely isolated from the day-to-day operations of the organization he nominally heads." Bin Laden is likely to still be in Pakistan's northwest tribal regions, the area that Hayden said is the source of "virtually every major terrorist threat that my agency is aware of."
The Army promoted Ann Dunwoody today to four-star general, making her the highest-ranking woman to ever serve her country. Dunwoody’s duties as commander of the Army Materiel Command are rather maternal—she will be in charge of equipping, dressing, and arming all soldiers—and indicate there is still some shattering to be done of the military’s glass ceiling. Women are still not allowed to serve on units that engage in direct combat, but Dunwoody, who has served for 33 years, says, "This nomination only reaffirms what I have known to be true about the military throughout my career — that the doors continue to open for men and women in uniform." There are currently 21 female generals in the Army.
With a tanking economy and two wars on his hands, President-elect Obama will probably not much have attention to spare for Israel and Palestine. But Philip Stephens writes in today’s Financial Times that “the early years of his presidency will be his best, and quite possibly the last, chance to broker a two-state solution.” With his worldwide support and unique heritage, Obama currently has “as much authority among Israelis, Palestinians and in the wider Arab world as any US president can ever expect.” Obama has paid proper lip service to a two-state solution and there has been talk of appointing a special US envoy to the region, but it is in this area that “Mr. Obama has promised least.” Obama’s best hope of fulfilling a “transformational presidency” may be to “redraw the strategic map of the Middle East and thereby set a new direction for America’s role in the world.”
Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but say Hillary does become Secretary of State. What becomes of her desirable New York Senate seat? Politico has assembled a list of potential successors. David Patterson’s rise to the governorship eliminates him from contention, as does Charlie Rangel’s ethics cloud. Possibilities include New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Representatives Jerrold Nadler and Nita Lowey, and … Bill Clinton. At this point, it’s all just speculation, but that last one sure is fun to imagine.
Men have long aggravated their partners by playing video games, but at least those partners knew where their boyfriends were and what they were doing. With the rise of Second Life, not so much. The Times of London reports on a woman filing for divorce on grounds of "unreasonable behavior after her husband admitted falling in love with the virtual female character." The divorcing couple originally met online and played Second Life together. The wife filed for divorce after discovering "virtual infidelity with a female character playing the role of a prostitute."
News from Colombia: Victims of an enormous pyramid scam have overrun the offices of the companies that they say took their money. The Guardian reports that 66 agencies bilked Colombians out of more than $100 million in the last four months by promising lavish returns. When enraged customers arrived at one such company, in Cauca, they found a note reading: "Dear investors, thanks for trusting us and depositing your money. Now, for being stupid and believing in financial witchcraft, you will have to work for your money." Two loan managers in Pereira apparently overstayed their welcome and were caught by police while absconding with briefcases full of cash.
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