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Ron Paul: Liar

Ron Paul knew about the content of his racist newsletters.

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GOP presidential candidate Texas Rep. Ron Paul speaks during the Florida Republican Presidential debate January 26, 2012, PAUL J. RICHARDS / AFP / Getty Images

Just in case you needed confirmation.

Yes, Ron Paul approved his racist newsletters:

[P]eople close to Paul’s operations said he was deeply involved in the company that produced the newsletters, Ron Paul & Associates, and closely monitored its operations, signing off on articles and speaking to staff members virtually every day.

“It was his newsletter, and it was under his name, so he always got to see the final product. . . . He would proof it,’’ said Renae Hathway, a former secretary in Paul’s company and a supporter of the Texas congressman.

And yes, he has been lying about it ever since.

Excuses

Newt's Excuse

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PAUL J. RICHARDS / AFP / Getty Images

Newt Gingrich now complains that he performed poorly last night because Mitt Romney stacked the hall with supporters who cheered more at Romney's remarks than his own.

I was not inside the hall, so I can't attest to whether that complaint is true or not. It may well be. If so though, some thoughts:

1) The complaint is a reminder that Gingrich from the start had a media presence, not a campaign. Filling halls is exactly the sort of thing campaign organizations exist to do.

2) The complaint reminds what a highly strung mechanism the Gingrich psyche is. If a condition as mildly adverse as a less-than-enthusiastic audience can so disable Gingrich's performance, you do have to wonder what real adversity would do to him. Actually, you don't have to wonder. We learned in the 1990s. Real adversity utterly disorients and defeats him.

3) The people in the audience were Republican rank-and-file, not a hired Romney claque—ie, people whom an effective candidate ought to have been able to reach and persuade. If the story is true that the crowd began tilted to Romney, why couldn't Gingrich win them over? That's what the great candidates do: they persuade. Gingrich however seems only able to excite the already persuaded—a bad omen for the general election.

Debates

Newt's Very Bad Night

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Paul J. Richards / Getty Images

That was not the debate I expected at all.

I expected a debate that featured a war between Gingrich's intellect and his instincts. Gingrich would try to act the front-runner, to play it cool, to refrain from outbursts.

But (I again expected) he would fail. The barrage of attacks from former allies today—and maybe even more, the needling from the Romney campaign suggesting that Gingrich was erratic and unreliable—would (I expected) goad Gingrich irresistibly.

I was completely wrong.

Gingrich arrived with no plan at all except to repeat his now-famliiar stunt of denouncing the question. This time, though, the stunt failed. Wolf Blitzer asked Gingrich to justify the accusations he'd flung about Romney's finances. Gingrich tried to treat the question as an impertinence. Blitzer pointed out he was only repeating Gingrich's own words. That opened the way for Romney's shiv: wouldn't it be nice if people couldn't make accusations somewhere else if they weren't able to defend it?

Taxes

A Grand Bargain for Romney

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Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney delivers a speech at Paramount Printing, a company going out of business, in Jacksonville, Florida, EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP / Getty Images

At Investors.com, the always interesting Jed Graham reminds us that back in 2007, Romney economist Greg Mankiw's criticized the carried interest rule that allows Mitt Romney to pay 15% on his earnings at Bain:

Krugman hit the nail on the head with this question: ‘why does (private equity titan) Henry Kravis pay a lower tax rate on his management fees than I pay on my book royalties?’ The analogy is a good one. In both cases, a person (investment manager, author) is putting in effort today for a risky return at some point in the future. The tax treatment should be the same in the two cases.

Graham himself wonders:

Why, for example, should stock options—another form of sweat equity—be taxed as regular income while carried interest is taxed as capital gains?

Graham suggests:

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Newt: Suddenly Alone

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Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Politico rounds up the sudden right-of-center media drop on Gingrich, including this line from Ann Coulter:

“Hotheaded arrogance is neither conservative nor attractive to voters.”

That's true, of course. It's been true all these past three years. Better late than never? I suppose. As for my own personal motto, I summon to mind Tom Wolfe's warning: "It's no good being even ten minutes ahead of the times."

Euro

Things I Must Make Time to Think About

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Axel Schmidt / AFP-Getty Images

George Soros's op-ed in today's Financial Times offering an alternative plan to save the Euro:

My proposal is to use the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism to insure the ECB against the solvency risk on any newly issued Italian or Spanish treasury bills they may buy from commercial banks. This would allow the European Banking Authority to treat the T-bills as the equivalent of cash, since they could be sold to the ECB at any time. Banks would then find it advantageous to hold their surplus liquidity in the form of T-bills as long as these bills yielded more than bank deposits held at the ECB. Italy and Spain would then be able to refinance their debt at close to the deposit rate of the ECB, which is currently 1 per cent on mandatory reserves and 25 basis points on excess reserve accounts. This would greatly improve the sustainability of their debt. Italy, for instance, would see its average cost of borrowing decline rather than increase from the current 4.3 per cent. Confidence would gradually return, yields on outstanding bonds would decline, banks would no longer be penalised for owning Italian government bonds and Italy would regain market access at more reasonable interest rates.

The Real Romney

Romney: A Skeptic, Not a Liar

Mitt Romney is not a liar, but he is emotionally distant from the Republican base.

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Justin Sullivan

In a column in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal, Bret Stephens lamented that the Republican Party deserved to lose the 2012 election. A special target of Stephens' wrath was Mitt Romney, whom Stephens dismissed as a hollow man without conviction.

I wrote this in reply:

I think it's probably true that Mitt Romney is concealing a private doubt, and it is this: Mitt Romney simply does not believe the things that must be said to be a competitive candidate for the Republican nomination. He has zero interest in being a Jon Huntsman-style martyr, so he dutifully repeats them, but he cannot bring himself to repeat them with the conviction that a Republican audience (and for that matter Stephens' higher-ups at the Journal itself) expect and demand.

This led Stephens' Journal colleague James Taranto to say in a Tweet:

@davidfrum thinks Romney is a liar and admires him for it.

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Gingrich's Surge and Romney's Plans

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Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Today on Morning Edition, NPR aired my interview with Steve Inskeep. I discussed Gingrich's ability to tap into voter anger and Romney's prescriptions for that anger. You can hear the whole interview here.

Moderate Republicans

Rule and Ruin

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Amazon.com

Geoffrey Kabaservice is a great historian of American politics, first a fine biography of Kingman Brewster's circle of postwar liberal Republicans and now an even more ambitious book, a history of the decline of moderate Republicanism as a political force since the 1950s. The book was recently reviewed at length and favorably on the cover of the New York Times Book Review.

Rule and Ruin is a book in which I take special pleasure, since some of the individual profiles in the book began as blogposts on the FrumForum site. It's an especially timely book now, when so many Republicans seem gripped by a 1964 style urge to hurl themselves over a cliff to make a point. Geoff's insights and analysis offer both warning and hope.

I talked earlier this week to Geoff in the offices of Newsweek/Daily Beast here in Washington. You can listen to the conversation here.

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The Cult of Gold

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YouTube.com

So here's the link to my interview with Peter Schiff on Tuesday. For those who don't know, Peter Schiff is a financial manager turned radio host. He's famous for having denounced the housing boom of the 2000s as a bubble and for his ultra-hard-money views.

Probably the most interesting part of the interview, should you listen to it, comes in the second half. I make the point that it's unexpected for gold and US Treasuries to rise together—and that one of those price rises is likely to end in tears. I suggest that it is more likely to be gold on grounds that (1) gold is a much smaller market, with fewer players and more easily manipulated and that (2) it's a market much more characterized by the kind of unethical and/or abusive practices we saw, for example, in the subprime market.

I don't deny that inflation risk exists, of course it does. The prudent investor will want to hedge against that risk with a diversified portfolio of hard assets including, for example, real estate, Australian dollar bonds, and investments in commodity-producing stocks ("son, I have one word for you: potash"), that kind of thing. As we move toward recovery, you'll probably want to allocate more of your investment portfolio toward inflation hedges. But gold coins at a 30% markup over melt value? NO!

Schiff challenged me and as he challenged he began to argue—not that the purchasing power of the dollar would decline, but that it would plunge toward worthlessness. (At one point he said that if you buried $1 million in a box today and dug it up 10 years from now, the box would likely be worth more than the cash. That would be some box.) And this is where I begin to think: gold for tragically many small buyers isn't an investment at all; it's a cult.

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