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The Dénouement of French Canada

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A car stopped at a street light in Montreal waves the flag of the province of Quebec the day of the referendum on Quebec separatism 30 October. Quebecers vote 30 October on whether they want to remain in Canada or form their own nation., CARLO ALLEGRI / AFP / Getty Images

In my column for the Naitonal Post, I discuss the decline of French Canada:

The recently released results from the 2011 Canadian census read very different in French and English.

In English, the census tells a story of growth and prosperity. In French, the census announces the decline of Quebec's standing in Confederation - and of the French language's place in North America.

Lester Pearson predicted that he would be the last Canadian prime minister to speak only English. To date, his prediction has held true. But not for much longer, by the looks of things.

The 2001 and 2006 Censuses showed sharp declines in the relative size of the population that claimed French as a "mother tongue," down to barely more than one-fifth.

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Tomorrow's Talking Points Today, Part 2

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Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney delivers remarks to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Marriott Wardman Park February 10, 2012 in Washington, DC, Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Yesterday's message: "My guess is it did not help when he talked down Las Vegas as a convention city, did it?" 
—Mitt Romney, Oct. 2011, reacting against President Obama's warning to bailed out-companies: "You can't go take a trip to Las Vegas or go down to the Super Bowl on the taxpayer's dime."

Today's message: "I prevented Massachusetts from becoming the Las Vegas of gay marriage."
—Mitt Romney, Feb. 2012, speaking to CPAC in Washington DC.

Tomorrow's message: "We never counted on those 6 Nevada electoral votes."

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Newt's Unrealistic Presidency

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Republican presidential candidate and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks at the 39th Conservative Political Action Committee February 10, 2012 at a hotel in Washington, DC, MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty Images

While leaving CPAC with a friend, we talked about Newt Gingrich's speech to the convention. Newt's speech was very similar to the one he gave after losing the Florida primary. It was a long list of the (unrealistic) policies he would implement as president. We couldn't decide if Newt was genuinely serious and he believes he can implement his agenda, or if he knows he will lose and is using that freedom to stake out the most extreme position possible.

Here is my list of policies that Newt promised: Repeal Obamacare, Dodd Frank, and Sarbanes-Oxley by January 20th. Abolish all of the White House Czars. Approve the Keystone pipeline. Move the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Reinstate the Mexico City Policy. "Repeal every act of religious bigotry by the Obama administration." Make the capital gains tax 0%. Completely overhaul unemployment insurance. Eliminate the EPA and the Department of Energy. Get the FDA to "accelerate" approving new drugs. Make the corporate take rate 12.5%. Abolish the estate tax. Create a tax filing system like Hong Kong's. Balance the budget. Use Six Sigma to reduce government waste. Create personalized social security savings accounts. Audit the Federal Reserve. Approve a gold commission. And finally, bring the cost of gas down to $2.

Newt said that his campaign "is a mortal threat to the establishment because we intend to change Washington and not accommodate it." It might just be intimidating because any establishment figure who hears the whole plan must wonder why Newt intends to grab every third rail in politics at the same time.

Newt's vice is that he lacks discipline, and his laundry list of policy ideas shows it. Mitt Romney may have a 59-point economic plan but he doesn't talk about all the parts of it on the campaign trail. With Newt, his policy laundry list could be re-packaged as a stump speech. In Newt's mind, the only real logistical problem is figuring out how many different executive orders he needs to sign.

So is he serious or is he just trying to stake out a politically extreme position? Why not both?

Odd Phrase

"Severely Conservative"?

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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during an address to the 39th Conservative Political Action Committee February 10, 2012, MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty Images

I was racking my brains trying to remember what Mitt Romney's oddly phrased boast that he was "severely conservative" as governor of Massachusetts reminded me of.

Then it hit me: In Evelyn Waugh's Black Mischief, an English delegation from the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals visits the African nation of Azania. The Azanian hosts welcome the delegation with a banquet, but do not fully grasp the message. One proposes a toast:

Ladies and gentlemen, we must be Modern, we must be refined in our Cruelty to Animals. That is the message brought to us by our guests this evening.

One might even say: severe.

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Tomorrow's Talking Points Today

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Attendees give a standing ovation to Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as he delivers remarks to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Marriott Wardman Park February 10, 2012 in Washington, DC, Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Yesterday's message: the government should not require Catholic institutions to insure contraception for their employees.

Today's message: the government should not require any insurer to cover contraception for anyone.

And if Mitt Romney loses in November, tomorrow's message will be: What do you expect when you nominate a moderate?

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Romney's Pitch: I've Lived Conservatism

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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during an address to the 39th Conservative Political Action Committee February 10, 2012, MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty Images

I had blogged yesterday that Mitt Romney's presence at CPAC seemed muted this year. By the time he spoke to the CPAC audience today, that was no longer the case. They were cheering enthusiastically at Romney's entrance, and I finally saw people hand out Romney stickers in the hallways.

Romney's speech took on the predictable challenge of trying to convince his audience that he is, in fact, a conservative. His argument came down to his family background and personal values. "I know conservatism because I've lived conservatism" he argued. In referring to his marriage and family: "those aren't values that I talk about, those are values that I live with everyday."

As for his time in Massachusetts, Romney described the experience as fighting "long odds in a deep blue state." He described his efforts to restrict same-sex marriage as his work to stop "Massachusetts [from] becoming the Las Vegas of gay marriage."

Romney's command of the audience was very strong, but it must be understood that this is because he was ultimately following the GOP base. He promised that borrowing 4 dollars for every dollar we spend "will end under my presidency." He promised that he will "finally balance the American budget". Even his usual line about Obamacare was made more extreme. Romney usually promises to sign an executive order to stop funding and implementing the healthcare law, a tacit acknowledgment that it will be a legislative challenge to repeal it. At CPAC, he was less ambiguous, promising his Presidency "will start with the easiest cut of all, I will eliminate Obamacare."

It's impossible to make predictions about a hypothetical Romney presidency when it is not even November. But as Romney made his promises, it was hard not to be reminded of George H.W. Bush's infamous line, "read my lips, no new taxes." Romney was promising to implement every hope and dream of the audience at CPAC, and it will be very hard to do that.

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Santorum: We're Not Going to Win With Money

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Presidential candidate and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum arrives on stage to speak during an address to the 39th Conservative Political Action Committee February 10, 2012 in Washington, DC, MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty Images

This year's CPAC is taking place in a climate that is unusually receptive for Rick Santorum. The contraception mandate and the Susan G. Komen scuffle have put social issues at the forefront of this conference.

Unsurprisingly, Santorum's speech capitalized on this. When he discussed the scandal over the contraception mandate he reiterated a line that has frequently been uttered at CPAC: "This is not about contraception. This is about economic liberty, it's about freedom of religion, it's about government control of your lives and it's got to stop."

The main anti-Romney lines were: "We are not going to win these elections because the Republican candidate has the most money to beat up their opponent" and "Why would an undecided voter vote for a candidate of a party that the party is not excited about?"

The most commonly used word by Santorum was "Contrast", both in terms of Santorum providing a contrast between himself and Romney, and between the eventual GOP nominee and Obama.

But the speech didn't knock it out of the park. One of Santorum's better speeches from the campaign trail has to be his speech after the Iowa caucus, where Santorum spoke about his working class background and his personal life story. Sticking to the CPAC talking points deprives Santorum of a chance to connect his personal story with one issue that doesn't always interest conservatives: upward mobility.

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Hey Here's An Idea

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Ray Roy sets up a polling station as they prepare for voters on primary day on January 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida, Joe Raedle

Richard Tafel (formerly executive director of Log Cabin Republicans) proposes—why don't moderates primary extremists for once?

Here are the four steps we can take to make get Americans their government back:

Step 1. Make Extremism Uncool: Identify the 20 most extreme Members of Congress from both parties who have refused to compromise on important issues. Begin with the Govtrack.us list that's been tracking the most extreme members of Congress since 2004.

Step 2. Money: To take on our broken system, we need to raise the funds to win by its rules. We need to create a grassroots campaign of donors who will give money to challengers of the most extreme Members in their primaries. We also need to recruit business leaders with the resources to turn the heat up on the extremists.

Step 3. Awareness: Run ads in extreme Member's districts saying "Did You Know You Are Electing an Extreme Member of Congress?" national ad campaign that identifies the most extreme members of Congress as threats to national security, our economy and our children's future.

Treading Lightly

Romney at CPAC

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Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney addresses supporters on a caucus night event in Denver, Colorado, February 7, 2012, EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP / Getty Images

Mitt Romney will speak to the Conservative Political Action Committee today. He arrives weakened by Rick Santorum's strong performance Tuesday in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Politico suggests that Romney will want to "deliver a truly conservative message in person."

My advice to the Romney campaign: be careful.

In 2008, Romney campaigned as a conservative culture warrior. The campaign did not succeed, at least in part because the words sounded so false in his mouth. This cycle, Romney has dialed back the culture war, emphasizing economic issues instead. 

Now there are signs that 2008 Romney is reappearing—and CPAC may be the occasion for another outing.

This tendency is dangerous, for a lot of reasons, but I'll mention here just one: the risk of turning Mitt Romney into the next Walter Mondale.

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CPAC and Big Ideas

While I was at CPAC today, I watched a panel that was discussing the 2012 election. They showed a clip of David Brooks from a recent Meet the Press appearance, where Brooks was saying that it would be a problem for Republicans to run just on the weakness of the economy since it is cyclical and could improve. He said that Romney needed some new "big ideas" to run on if the economy gets better.

When the clip ended, the moderator asked conservative columnist Cal Thomas what he thought of Brooks advice. He said "I haven't the foggiest idea what he was talking about! We already know what we need!" This got a huge applause.

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David Frum Bio

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