A leaked internal report by the European Union’s border control program Sophia warns that as many as 300,000 people could flee Libya across the Mediterranean Sea in a “humanitarian disaster.” Quoting the International Organization for Migration, the report states, “around 325,000 people could take to the sea if conditions in Libya compelled them to do so.” Rival factions have been fighting for control of the oil-rich country for much of the summer. The fears of a massive exodus out of the country are exacerbated by the continuing government crisis in Italy, which has traditionally been at the receiving end of Mediterranean migration. Italy’s far right Interior Minister Matteo Salvini closed Italian ports to migrant rescue vessels in 2018, effectively stopping illegal migration into the country. But the government coalition he serves under has just collapsed, which could lead to a softer stance on migration into the country in the short term.