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Holding the Financial Beasts at Bay

Davos ended with a whimper, and now European leaders head to a financial summit in Brussels, unlikely to come up with a viable—and desperately needed—economic plan, writes Christopher Dickey.

“If someone says a rhinoceros is coming in two seconds, we worry,” a Buddhist monk told me on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, last week. “But if you say a rhinoceros is coming in 20 years, nobody moves.”

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he global forum that just ended at Davos and the European summit now under way in Brussels fall short as the confidence building events the markets – and the world economy – desperately need., Michel Euler / AP Photo

Ah, the wisdom of the East makes even the most obvious truism sound exotic. But the phrase kept rattling around in my head at the annual gathering of the putative elite of the elite of the crème de la crème of global politics and business. As Davos whimpered to an end on Sunday, it was clear the masters of the universe have been mastered by a universe they no longer understand. And for all the talk about leadership going into this meeting, there was a wealth of ignorance going out. Indeed, it’s far from clear that the European leaders at the formal summit in Brussels meeting Monday will do any better.

Everyone knows at least one rhinoceros is coming, but there may be a whole herd on the way, with each more dangerous than the next. And while they might not arrive in two seconds, they could be in our faces in a matter of months or weeks or even days. Yet some of the most important players— the ones critical to building the defenses to keep the beasts at bay—act as if they might have 20 years to spare. “I have been in public service—most of which involved public finance—for over four decades,” said Donald Tsang, president of the Executive Council of Hong Kong. “Let me share with you:  I have never been as scared as now about the world.”

The panel on which he spoke, the definitive “Outlook for the Global Economy 2012,” moderated by the ever-brilliant, ever-caustic Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, had a great range of stars from politics and finance, including Ali Babacan, the deputy prime minister of Turkey, Christine Lagarde of the IMF, British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

But there was not a single representative of the eurozone countries or the United States. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had opened the conference by cautioning that Germany will not make promises it cannot keep—which suggests that it won’t make commitments that Europe needs but the German people don’t want. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reiterated that position with his talk of “steady policies,” rather than massive firewalls of the kind that Lagarde and others are promoting. The absent German voice on the closing panel quickly became the elephant that wasn’t in the room.

YIKES

Topless Protesters Arrested at Davos

Separate Occupy demonstration marches to conference.

Imagine how cold this must have been. Three topless Ukrainian protesters were arrested Saturday at the World Economic Forum in Davos trying to break into an invitation-only gathering of international CEOs and political leaders in an effort to draw attention toward the world’s poor. They carried signs that read “Crisis! Made in Davos!” and “Poor, because of you” and “Gangster's Party in Davos.” They are part of a popular Ukrainian protest group called Fremen that frequently stages half-naked protests to draw attention to the needy. A group of about 40 Occupy protesters held a separate protest on Saturday, gathering in front of the town hall and shouting, “If voting would change anything, it would be illegal” and “Don’t let them decide for you, Occupy WEF.”

Read it at Associated Press

WORLD ECONOMY

Pressure on Debt Hits Davos

As Greece close to striking deal.

Leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Saturday turned up the pressure on Europe to find a solution to the region's sovereign debt crisis. The International Monetary Fund's Christine Lagarde said a bigger firewall of money needs to be set up to ensure stability if there is a lending crisis; the current capacity is $656 billion, which Lagarde said is not enough when it begins operating in July. But there's also good news, as officials in talks between Greece and private creditors say a deal is very close to being reached so that the country's debt load could be cut in half, preventing a potentially disastrous default.

Read it at New York Times

FIREWALL

Europe Warned Against Debt Complacency at Davos

Lagarde pressures Greece to come up with a debt solution.

European leaders were warned at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Friday not to forget about the debt crisis—and have their defenses ready if it gets worse. International Monetary Fund president Christine Lagarde pressured Greece and its creditors to hammer out a deal on cutting the debt burden, and she said she was pleased to see Greece and its bond holders going “back to the drawing board” to come up with a plan to loosen the debt burden. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told delegates that the “only way Europe is going to be successful in holding this together, making monetary union work, is to build a stronger firewall.” Geithner said that while the IMF can help, its resources can’t be used as a “substitute for a more effective” domestic response.

Read it at Bloomberg News

Daily Davos

The Missing Agenda

Are leaders missing the real point?

The World Economic Forum has a history of missing the point. The annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, months in planning, can end up mired in issues that were relevant ages ago instead of anticipating what comes next. Case in point: last year’s meeting, caught flat-footed by the Arab Spring uprisings.

World Economic Forum

Protesters occupy the main gate to the Davos congress center, site of the World Economic Forum, as limousines drive by in Davos, Switzerland on January 25, 2012., Johannes Simon / Getty Images

This year, the meeting has done a better job of addressing the issues everybody is actually talking about in the hallways: Europe’s financial meltdown and the future of the global economy. But the deafening chatter about the financial crisis may be drowning out an equally urgent issue, one that will likely dominate the agenda next year and beyond: the skill-set mismatch between what companies need and what people looking for work can offer.

“We think the talent-and-skills mismatch will become more acute. That’s a structural change,” says Jonas Prising, the president of the Americas for the staffing company ManpowerGroup, who notes that the U.S. lags far behind other countries in science and technology, areas where new jobs are most likely to be created.

Already, PricewaterhouseCoopers chairman Robert Moritz has heard from “CEOs who have now said, ‘I have taken a different strategic path, because I didn’t have the skill set in this organization.’” He expects the problem to intensify and lists “the need for a better appreciation for the talent-skill-set mismatch that’s out there” as one of top two wish-list items to accomplish at this year’s meeting, along with focusing on solutions for Europe.

President Obama noted the impending crisis in his State of the Union address Tuesday while pitching his plan to use community colleges to retrain workers: “Growing industries in science and technology have twice as many openings as we have workers who can do the job. Think about that—openings at a time when millions of Americans are looking for work. That’s inexcusable.”

At Davos, the issue is tangentially on the agenda, with sessions on youth unemployment. A few participants, including Harvard’s Larry Summers, have raised it, too. But considering how large the issue will loom going forward in the U.S.—and even more so abroad, with youth unemployment rates in some countries topping 40 percent or even 50 percent—you’d think this problem would make a lot more noise around here.

Daily Davos

Pessimism in the Alps

Leaders Fear the Worst in Davos.

The skies are gray and the mood is bleak on day three of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Friday’s panels are equally grim as leaders take on some of the world’s most worrying problems. “What if Iran Develops a Nuclear Weapon?” was the hottest panel Friday morning with Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency leading a discussion with Deputy Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Barak, U.S. president of the Coucil on Foreign Relations Richard Haass and External Relations Minister of Brazil Antonio de Aguiar Patriota. 

World Economic Forum

The Global Fund board chairman Simon Bland (L) and Microsoft founder and US billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates pose for a photo during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 26, 2012., Fabrice Coffrini, AFP / Getty Images

Throughout the week, conversations in Davos have ultimately focused on what has been coined as "the Europe problem," which is clearly on every leader’s mind.  “We have a time bomb, the bomb is in Europe and we are working together to deactivate it before it explodes over all of us,” warned Mexican President Felipe Calderon, current head of the G20. “The failure of a containment strategy will mean not only the potential implosion of the euro, but an economic crisis with devastating consequences for the rest of the world.”

Friday’s hottest economic sessions reflected the somber mood as leaders turned introspective. “Fixing Capitalism” led by Angel Gurria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and “The Future of the Eurozone” with finance ministers from France, Spain, Brussels, and Germany spurred heated debate in the halls. Friday’s televised debate focuses on the provocative question: “Big Banks: Cure or Curse for the Global Economy?” Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank is sure to draw an attentive audience as he tries to lay out the future in an address called “Europe’s Economic Outlook.”

Off the economic circuit, topics are not much brighter. An interactive session called “A Day Without Satellites” will focus on society’s growing dependence on satellite technology by painting a picture of just one 24-hour period without it and how the dark the day would be. A panel called “What if All Known Antibiotics Lost Their Effectiveness” will warn against the effects of over-prescribing antibiotics.   “Preventing Burnout” led by an impressive panel of international mental-health specialists will be a timely panel in today’s always-on-always-available world.

Even the Art and culture offerings for Friday are bleak.  The highlight will be a demonstration of repurposing garbage as art led by Brazilian artist Vik Muniz.  

DAVOS

Where Are All the Women in Davos?

Only 17 percent of attendees are female.

To register for this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, delegates had to fill in a profile page that is preset with the silhouette of a shadowy man. A year after imposing a quota on the biggest companies to encourage more women to attend, that image still fits the gender profile of more than 80 percent of delegates. Despite the quota, just 17 percent of those gathered from the world’s business and political elites are women. This is the highest yet in the 40-odd years of the event, up from 16 percent in 2011—and just 9 percent in 2002. But it still gives a useful guide to the headway women are making at the top. I’ve been to Davos once before when I tackled the late nights and icy roads while five months pregnant. I thought once was enough. But five years on, I am back, wanting to find out how much has changed. Saadia Zahidi, the head of constituents at WEF who has spearheaded the program of increasing diversity, says it has actively sought out women for panels (some 20 percent of all panelists are women), made the issue of gender the subject of more sessions and added a gender lens to general discussions on the economy or health. Her group was also responsible for the introduction of a quota for “strategic partners”—the top 100 companies attending the mountainside event—which dictates that one in every five passes has to be a woman. A fifth of them decided to send just four people.

Read it at womenintheworld.org

RELUCTANT AID

Leaders Debate China’s Role in Economic Recovery

Amid distrust of motives in growing global investments.

Attention turned to China during a World Economic Forum debate Thursday morning on the role of Chinese money in helping to alleviate the financial problems hitting many of the world’s economies. While many leaders have increasingly looked to Chinese investments for help, suspicion of China’s growing power persists. John Zao, CEO of Hony Capital explained, “The vast majority of Chinese companies are trying to follow the rules as they understand it, but many Chinese companies are still trying to learn the rules.” While WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy pointed out that “public perception problems” will only get worse as China’s investments continue to grow, other panelists noted that the Western world is not without its own history of corporate problems (think Enron). And at the end of the day, as Yale President Richard C. Levin pointed out, struggling economies should be thankful for China’s help. China has increasing social problems of its own and, Levin said, “some fraction of these trillions could be used domestically.”

Read it at The Associated Press

article

The Street Theater from Hell

"Where are your papers? Hands against the wall!" The UNHCR gives CEOs a chance to be refugees.

Others may offer cocktail parties, lunches and dinners at Davos, but each year the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees tries to give the assembled global elite a taste of hell. Executives who volunteer for the experience -- and there are scores of them -- cross what looks like a crude police barrier between the snow drifts and suddenly find themselves living the lives of people who are homeless, stateless and bereft not only of their possessions but of their futures. As street theater, this brief, intense "simulation" is convincing enough to be disconcerting. I found myself buying a crust of bread with my glasses, and having guards roust me out of a tent at night to shake me down and steal my watch. But the fact is, this show pales by comparison with the brutalization most of the world's 43.3 million refugees have experienced as they flee their homes into the hands of governments that are at best only grudgingly hospitable and at worst downright savage. In most cases, the only real refuge, and the only real hope for these people, lies with the UNHCR, but even in the best-run camps, they may enter a kind of limbo that lasts, on average, a dozen years before they can return home or be resettled permanently in a third country.

article

Our Silent Education Crisis

World leaders in Davos are tied up dealing with the economic slowdown—but the critical problem of children without schooling needs to be addressed as well. Former British prime minister Gordon Brown explains why he’s pushing for a global education fund.

As governments gather for the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos this week, their agenda is dominated by the state of the global economy and its impact on developed and emerging countries. These issues are undoubtedly of critical importance, but I fear that a global crisis that rarely makes headlines, the crisis in education, will be once again pushed to the sidelines.

The global crisis in education is a silent, invisible crisis, perhaps because those most immediately affected - the world’s poorest and most vulnerable children and their parents - have a weak voice. But it is at our peril that we ignore the overwhelming evidence that disadvantage in education costs lives, undermines economic growth, fuels youth unemployment, and reinforces national and global inequalities. The bottom line is that education holds the key to the development of more dynamic economies, greater social mobility, and poverty reduction. Education is the key that unlocks human potential and prepares future generations to participate in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy.

 Britain's former Prime Minister Gordon Brown

Former British prime minister Gordon Brown speaks during a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 26, 2012. , Christian Hartmann, Reuters / Landov

We merely have to look at the numbers to grasp the scale of the crisis. There are 68 million primary school age children out of school - and global progress towards universal primary education has slowed since 2005. If current trends continue, the out-of-school population could increase to 72 million by 2015. Another 71 million adolescents are out of school, many of them lacking a basic education. And while governments across the world are concerned about the quality of education, the evidence on learning achievement levels in many of the poorest countries is profoundly disturbing.

Less than four years from the 2015 target date, the world is not on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of decent quality universal primary education. The ultimate responsibility for changing this picture and delivering on the promise of education for all rests with national governments. But donors also have a role to play - and they have not delivered on their aid commitments.

In contrast to the health sector, where the global funds for HIV/AIDS and immunization have mobilized resources and galvanized political action, the education sector has suffered from a weak multilateral core. The Fast Track Initiative (FTI), renamed the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) last year, which operates under the auspices of the World Bank, has achieved some important results. But it has not delivered at a level of ambition commensurate with the scale of the crisis. Moreover, the World Bank itself has struggled to translate its commitment to education into financing decisions. The end result is that the GPE has been delivering too little aid—around $249 million in 2010—to too few countries, far too slowly.

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