Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Good to Fair
Population in support of gay marriage: 57%
Legislative support: No
Governor support: Neutral (Governor has said he will support if voters do.)
State law: Banned
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Yes
Current status: A statewide ballot initiative to overturn the constitutional ban is slated for 2016. Democrats also introduced a bill this week that includes a joint resolution to overturn the ban, but the legislature would then have to legalize gay marriage. A federal judge is expected to rule in favor of a lesbian couple who contend the ban is unconstitutional by late summer.
Expert Opinion: “When [the constitutional gay marriage ban] passed in 2004, 59% of voters voted in favor of traditional marriage at that time. A lot of experts say that to have a strong likelihood of passing, a ballot initiative to overturn the ban should be north of 60%. The 57% in favor [of gay marriage] may not be such a slam dunk.”—Paul Egan, reporter, Detroit Free Press