Reaching For The Sky

If good will and warm wishes alone could bring peace to the Mideast, Ehud Barak's work would be done. Since taking office in July, Israel's new prime minister has received a hero's welcome among his Arab neighbors. Egypt's Hosni Mubarak cheered Barak's first official visit to Alexandria, calling him "a man of his word." Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat embraced him in Gaza as "a friend and a partner." From Damascus, the state-run Syrian Times praised him as a leader "who has declared his ambition to make peace."

Can he achieve it? In Washington last week Barak publicly stated his goal of "a breakthrough... to put an end to the conflict" within 15 months. His host, Bill Clinton, pledged whatever help America can provide. But Arafat and his aides called the timetable too slow. They want a final peace agreement implemented by next May. Sunday Clinton and Barak met informally with Arab leaders attending King Hassan's funeral to reaffirm Israel's commitment to the accords.

Even so, some Arabs and Jews would rather die than abandon the struggle. Israel's last great peacemaker, Yitzhak Rabin, was killed before he could achieve his vision. In some ways the task has only become tougher in the more than three years since then, as positions hardened on both sides. "No amount of good feeling is going to overcome those problems," a senior Clinton administration official warns. "They are only going to be overcome by some tough decisions."

The prime minister backed himself into this corner. Last winter, early in his campaign for Israel's top post, Barak placed four stipulations on future peace talks. Jerusalem would remain the undivided capital of Israel. The Palestinians would not be allowed to establish their own army. Most Jewish settlers in the West Bank would remain under Israeli sovereignty and protection. And the state of Israel would not pull back to its pre-1967 borders. Those promises reinforced Barak's image as a tough-minded centrist who would not sacrifice security for peace. But they raised the threat that negotiations could collapse. Now as he deals with the main players, Barak has to keep several sets of conflicting demands from becoming deal breakers:

Hafez Assad: The Syrian president wants the entire Golan Heights, the strategic high ground Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 war. Barak is prepared to give back most of the Heights--but not all. A full withdrawal would restore a notoriously vulnerable stretch of Israel's pre-1967 boundaries. Even a partial pullout would require the relocation of 13,000 settlers. But Barak's aides say they are bracing for such a "painful compromise." In return, Israel would want Assad's security forces in Lebanon to help stop Iranian-backed guerrilla raids along the Israeli border. A positive sign: last week Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar carried a message from Assad to Barak suggesting Syria might be flexible. And a Barak aide said talks could begin within weeks.

Arafat: Talks with the Palestinian leader will be stickier. Barak has signaled his readiness to open "final status" talks on their most difficult unresolved issues--the West Bank settlements, Jerusalem's future and the permanent borders of Israel and a Palestinian state. But neither side is showing much inclination to compromise. Arafat's stated aim is an independent Palestinian state encompassing most of the West Bank. His map would restore much of the Green Line that separated Israel and the West Bank before the 1967 war. And he wants his capital in traditionally Arab East Jerusalem. Someone has to blink. Do the Arabs think Barak will renege on his campaign pledges? Certainly not if he is truly "a man of his word."

The West Bank settlers: Don't even think about it. There are some 190,000 settlers in the West Bank, and any attempt to place most of them under Arafat's control would be political suicide. An integral part of the ancient Jewish kingdoms of Judea and Samaria, this land is regarded by many Israelis as their people's sacred birthright--unlike the Golan Heights, which is little more than a coveted military position.

The White House: Clinton's foreign-policy aides see a Mideast peace deal as their last big chance to wipe that smirk off history's face. The administration is tackling the job from every imaginable angle: aid money, diplomatic stroking and arm-twisting, intensified security assistance, even planning the first space mission by an Israeli astronaut.

Peace is still a gamble. But Barak took office with a clear sense of what he could and could not accomplish as prime minister. He has promised to end the conflict. And his Arab neighbors say they believe he's equal to the task. Who's to argue with them?