Living Politics: Running Against Osama Bin Laden
George W. Bush's political handlers are obsessed with a date on the calendar. It's not Sept. 11 or Nov. 2. It is June 30 -- the day of the "handover," when America's role in Iraq is supposed to begin winding down. Swing voters who have been withholding judgment about the war want to see if the "transition" produces stability in Iraq and a reduction in American casualties, a key Bush adviser told me. "That's a critical time," he said. "It could set the tone for the rest of the race."
This is the sound of wishful thinking. Team Bush is deluding itself if it really believes that the events surrounding June 30 will lighten the political burden of the war. The reason is simple and depressing: They are not in control of events, and neither are our few allies on the ground in Iraq. Osama bin Laden is in charge. He's the other "candidate" in this presidential race.
And he's winning.
A year ago, the Bushies were planning to run away from the economy and toward the war, outing the president's role as commander-in-chief. Now they might want to run away from the war and toward the economy. Though the president isn't highly regarded for economic leadership, at least there is good news to brag about (not counting the prices of gasoline).
There is precious little good news from Iraq, or from the wider war on terror. In fact, things couldn't be going better for bin Laden if he'd written the script.
To be sure, many members of his inner circle have been killed or are on the run. Finances have been disrupted, and police agencies have had considerable success rounding up potential terrorists. But look at the rest of the wartime ledger from OBL's own point of view. For him, it's all upside.
Taliban on the Comeback
In the last year or so, the U.S. has divided its friends and united its enemies. The Taliban is on the comeback trail in the mountains of Afghanistan, and the Saudi royal family -- no angels, but at least fitfully cooperative -- are in the fundamentalists' line of fire. We wrested control of one giant oil-producing country (Iraq) from the hands of a bad guy (Saddam) but in doing so may have helped generate an insurrection in the biggest of them all (Saudi Arabia). To bin Laden, Iraq is Afghanistan of a quarter-century ago, times 10: a recruiting ground, a cause to unite all Arabs and Muslims in jihad, the start of the ultimate clash with the infidel.
Iraq was the war Bush wanted. But it also was the war OBL wanted. Not even in his most fevered prayers could bin Laden have imagined the propaganda coup offered by the pictures of humiliated prisoners in Baghdad. It's unfair, really: Saddam's murderous sadism went on for decades, largely away from the media's eyes. We are conducting our war in public and by standards of decency and law unknown in the Persian Gulf. But pictures don't come with context, and these paint us the way OBL wants us to be seen.
Bin Laden's bet was, and is, that the United States is too weak-willed and economically vulnerable to last for long in a war against jihadis motivated by centuries of hatred for the West. The American public will tire of the fight, and the cost will weaken an economy already facing competition from Europe and China. He hoped to provoke an Armageddon, and now he has one.
Will Al Qaeda try to launch another attack in the U.S. before the presidential election? Probably. How would that effect the presidential election? Hard to say. America is not Spain, but the public's patience is not unlimited, either.
Copyright 2004 Newsweek: not for distribution outside of Newsweek Inc.
Like The Daily Beast on Facebook and follow us on Twitter for updates all day long.
Howard Fineman is Newsweek's Senior Washington Correspondent and Columnist, senior editor and deputy Washington bureau chief. He is the author of "Living Politics," a column that began on MSNBC.COM and Newsweek.com and that now also appears in the print magazine. An award-winning reporter and writer, Fineman also is an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC, appearing regularly on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and "TODAY." The author of scores of Newsweek cover stories, Fineman's work has appeared as well in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The New Republic. His 2008 national best-selling book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," was released in paperback by Random House in the spring of 2009.
One of the nation's leading political reporters, Fineman has interviewed every major presidential candidate from (then-vice president) George H.W. Bush in 1985 to (then senator) Barack Obama early and often in the 2008 campaign cycle. His current work focuses on the Obama Administration and its top officials, as well as on Congress and politics throughout the country. Although based in Washington, Fineman travels widely in the U.S. and has covered politics and other events in 49 of the 50 states.
Fineman's work has produced many milestones and awards. A cover story in November 2001 featured President George W. Bush's first extensive interview after 9/11. Another cover, "Bush and God," was part of a series of articles that won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence. His reporting has helped Newsweek win many honors from the Magazine Publishers Association and the American Journalism Review. Other awards include a "Page One" from the Headliners Club of New York, a "Silver Gavel" from the American Bar Association and a "Deadline Club" from the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ). In 2006 he received the Alumni Award from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism.
As a reporter and writer, Fineman ranges widely. Besides campaign-year covers, other projects have included: race and politics, the impact of digital technology on society, the influence of Hollywood on politics, the rise of the religious right and of conservative talk radio. He has interviewed business leaders such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Steve Case and Robert Rubin and entertainment figures such as Warren Beatty, Jane Fonda and Jay Leno.
Although now under exclusive television contract to NBC, Fineman over the years has appeared on major public affairs shows, such as Nightline, Face the Nation, Fox News Sunday, Larry King Live, Charlie Rose and the NewsHour. He was a regular panelist on Washington Week in Review on PBS (1983-95) and on CNN's Capital Gang Sunday (1995-98). He worked with Ted Koppel on Nightline specials, and has been a guest on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report."
A native of Pittsburgh, Fineman began his career at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, covering the environment, the coal industry and state politics before joining the newspaper's Washington bureau in 1978. He moved to Newsweek in 1980, was named chief political correspondent in 1984, deputy Washington bureau chief in 1993, senior editor in 1995 and senior Washington correspondent and columnist in 2008.
Fineman holds an A.B., Phi Beta Kappa, from Colgate, an M.S. in journalism from Columbia and a J.D. from the Brandeis School of Law at the University of Louisville. His legal education included a year as a visiting student at the Georgetown University Law Center. He received Watson and Pultizer Traveling Fellowships for study in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and has traveled to more than 40 countries, among them China, Vietnam, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey and the West Bank Palestinian Territories.
Fineman is married to Amy L. Nathan, a senior counsel at the Federal Communications Commission. They live in Washington with their two children, Meredith and Nicholas.
For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.
Comments