Why Pyongyang May Test Its Bomb
East Asia could be on the verge of the nightmare it has been trying to avert for so long: a North Korean nuclear test that could set off a destabilizing WMD arms race in that part of the world. Last week Pyongyang announced it intends to test a nuclear bomb soon, and most U.S. and Chinese officials say they believe the statement was not merely a bargaining ploy. "It's as serious as a heart attack," says Frederick Jones of the National Security Council.
As evidence, U.S. officials point to the carefully constructed official statement issued by North Korea's Foreign Ministry--and the fact that its intention to test was broadcast to the North Korean people themselves. "The North Koreans always do what they say they're going to," says Jones.
U.S. officials now believe the only nation that can persuade North Korea to stand down is China, which has taken the lead in the long-suspended Six-Party Talks with Pyongyang (the other participants are the United States, Russia, South Korea and Japan). In the past Beijing has either temporarily interrupted or threatened to cut off North Korea's critical energy supplies, including oil and electricity, according to three U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reporting on Korea, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details are classified. Washington's hope is that Beijing will do the same now.
Chinese officials, however, suggest that even if they do move to punish Pyongyang, it may not do any good. They note that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ignored Beijing's pleas when China tried to intervene with him this summer. China had insisted that Kim not test new missiles, but he went ahead anyway and fired off seven across the Sea of Japan in a macabre July 4 celebration. Shen Dingli, a senior Chinese foreign-policy analyst, has concluded it's too late to deter Kim from exploding a nuclear bomb. In a remarkably candid commentary published in a newspaper of the Communist Party's China Youth League last week, Shen warned that Pyongyang has already concluded that its national interests--including its nuclear ambitions--now eclipse the importance of its relations with China. Shen said Kim's regime believes it needs to test a bomb because that will unmistakably demonstrate its nuclear capability, which, in turn, will deter America from attacking it.
If Kim does test, what will Washington do? The lead U.S. negotiator, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, delivered the starkest warning yet to Pyongyang last week, saying North Korea "can have a future or it can have these weapons. It can't have both." U.S. officials say Hill was not threatening war, but rather referral to the U.N. Security Council under Chapter 7, which could mean new sanctions and increasing isolation. One U.S. intel official who has long followed North Korea (and requested anonym-ity because of the sensitivity of the subject) said that Kim Jong Il is behaving "like a bad-tempered teenage child." Perhaps, but most children don't play with nuclear bombs.
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Mark Hosenball joined Newsweek as an investigative correspondent in November 1993, covering a range of issues for the National Affairs department. Most recently, he has written and reported numerous stories on terrorism and the Sept. 11 attacks on America. He has also covered campaign finance, the Monica Lewinsky controversy, the death of Princess Diana, Whitewater, the crashes of EgyptAir flight 990 and TWA flight 800, as well as related air safety issues.
Hosenball came to Newsweek from "Dateline NBC," where he worked as an investigative producer. He also worked extensively as a print journalist, writing for a number of British and American publications, including the London Sunday Times, the London Evening Standard, Time Out, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and The New Republic. In addition, he has done commentaries for American Public Radio.
Hosenball has been honored with a number of prestigious awards. Most recently, along with a team of Newsweek correspondents, he was awarded the Overseas Press Club's most prestigious honor, the 2002 Ed Cunningham Memorial Award for best magazine reporting from abroad for Newsweek's coverage of the war on terror. His reporting and that of his colleagues earned Newsweek the prestigious National Magazine Award for General Excellence in 2002 for its coverage of September 11 and its aftermath. And a story he co-authored was highlighted in a citation Newsweek received by the White House Correspondents' Association when it awarded the magazine the 2002 Edgar A. Poe Award for "excellence on a story of national or regional importance. "Newsweek's September 11 coverage started long before the attacks. An article in the magazine's February 19, 2001 issue warned with chilling accuracy: 'The threat posed by (Osama) bin Laden is growing -- and coming ever closer to home."
Hosenball was a contributor to the CANAL + TV documentary, "L'Argent de la Drogue" (Drug Money), which was awarded the "Sept D'Or," the French equivalent of an Emmy. He also contributed to NBC News' coverage of the BCCI scandal, which earned a 1991 Peabody Award.
He attended the University of Pennsylvania and Trinity College in Dublin. He lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his wife and son.
Melinda Liu is Bejiing bureau chief for Newsweek and The Daily Beast, a veteran foreign correspondent, and recipient of a number of awards, including the 2006 Shorenstein Journalism Award, acknowledging her reporting on Asia.
Michael Hirsh covers international affairs for NEWSWEEK reporting on a range of topics from Homeland Security to postwar Iraq. He co-authored the November 3, 2003 cover story, "Bush's $87 Billion Mess," about the Iraq reconstruction plan. The issue was one of three that won the 2004 National Magazine Award for General Excellence.
Hirsh writes a column on Newsweek.com entitled "The World from Washington" focusing on foreign policy issues and serves as Washington Web Editor for Newsweek. He also edited NEWSWEEK's "Issues 2007" special issue, which explores all facets and issues of globalization.
Hirsh was the magazine's Foreign Editor from January 2001 to January 2002, and helped guide Newsweek's award-winning coverage of the September 11 attacks and the war on terror. Before that he was a Senior Editor/Chief Diplomatic Correspondent in the Washington bureau, writing about foreign affairs and international economics. Hirsh was also managing editor for the Newsweek International special issue "ISSUES 2001," the second in a series of three annual reviews of the global economy in the new century.
From September 1998 to December 1999, as Diplomatic Correspondent, Hirsh covered foreign policy, the State Department and the Treasury. He moved to the Washington D.C. bureau in May 1997, previously serving as a senior editor of Newsweek International, covering the same beat.
Prior to joining NEWSWEEK in October 1994 as a New York-based senior writer, Hirsh served as the Tokyo-based Asia Bureau Chief for Institutional Investor from 1992 to 1994. Previously, he was a correspondent for the Associated Press in Tokyo and a National Editor in New York.
Hirsh was co-winner of the 2002 Ed Cunningham Award for best magazine reporting from abroad for Newsweek's terror coverage and contributed to the team of Newsweek reporters who earned the magazine the prestigious 2002 National Magazine Award for General Excellence, also for the magazine's coverage of the war on terror. Hirsh also won a Deadline Club Award in 1997 for investigative reporting on his expose of the IRS's abusive practices, and was one of five finalists for a 1994 Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business and Financial Journalism for his article, "China's Financial Revolutionaries." It profiled the new generation of mainland Chinese businessmen who are striving to build a capitalist financial system from scratch. Hirsh is the author of the nonfiction book "At War with Ourselves" (Oxford University Press, 2003) which explores America's foreign policy and its global role.
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