The Long Run
Two upsets later, it looks like a protracted campaign
We could be in for a long, perhaps very long, presidential campaign--in both parties. Sen. Hillary Clinton's stunning comeback victory in New Hampshire's Democratic primary, coupled with Sen. John McCain's runaway triumph on the Republican side, means the race in both parties could go on into the spring, if not beyond.
Among Democrats, there is every reason to expect a tough struggle between Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. Hillary showed what a resilient person she truly is. She rose to the occasion, and then some. With the national spotlight on her in victory in Manchester, she got off a couple of great lines. "I listened to you," she told the voters of New Hampshire, "and I found my own voice." Then she said, "Let's give America a comeback like the one New Hampshire just gave me." Perfect.
The money crowd that was about to abandon her will be back. She can now go forward to plan a national, down-to-the-wire effort. She will make some changes in her campaign structure, but nothing major. She has adjusted the tone of her approach. She found a way to be more personal, and intimate, and focused on the needs of people.
Her allies will ask questions with increasing urgency about Obama, whose full biography really isn't known. He probably talked too much in recent days about "making history." That is an inspiring point, but an abstract one for many voters, evidently.
The media that in many cases dismissed her will have to consider how to proceed, as will the Clintons, for that matter. The media polls, by the way, were wrong, way wrong.
As Obama said in his gracious concession speech, it would have been a major surprise only a month or two ago for him to have come as very close as he did in New Hampshire, but he lost the expectations game, disastrously. But he is not going away, not by a long shot. He is the best-funded insurgent in modern political history, with a half a million contributors--the lion's share of them via the internet, and their average donation is only a few hundred dollars each. If they believe in Obama--and most of them do--they will tap their credit cards for more cash for their candidate.
Expect tough races in the upcoming events (I don't count Michigan, where the actual delegate count is unclear because both parties punished the state for having its primary too early): Nevada and South Carolina, prominent among them. Whom will the crucial Culinary Workers union support in Nevada? Will Rep. Jim Clyburn, the influential African-American congressman in South Carolina, endorse anyone? I'm not sure either key endorsement will materialize.
Will Obama rise to the occasion now himself? We are about to find out.
So who is really the Republican frontrunner? I don't know that there is one.
On the Republican side, it's anybody's guess who will win the Nevada primary. The latest polls show Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee--and not McCain--locked in a three-way race. You have to assume that Huckabee will win South Carolina, but former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson already is attacking Huckabee (perhaps on McCain's ultimate behalf). In Florida, Giuliani still leads in the early tracking polls.
And none of that takes Tsunami Tuesday into consideration. February 5, 2008, with more than twenty states voting, is shaping up as one the most amazing, and unpredictable, days in American political history. Except for the one we just witnessed.
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Howard Fineman is Newsweek's Senior Washington Correspondent and Columnist, senior editor and deputy Washington bureau chief. He is the author of "Living Politics," a column that began on MSNBC.COM and Newsweek.com and that now also appears in the print magazine. An award-winning reporter and writer, Fineman also is an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC, appearing regularly on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and "TODAY." The author of scores of Newsweek cover stories, Fineman's work has appeared as well in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The New Republic. His 2008 national best-selling book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," was released in paperback by Random House in the spring of 2009.
One of the nation's leading political reporters, Fineman has interviewed every major presidential candidate from (then-vice president) George H.W. Bush in 1985 to (then senator) Barack Obama early and often in the 2008 campaign cycle. His current work focuses on the Obama Administration and its top officials, as well as on Congress and politics throughout the country. Although based in Washington, Fineman travels widely in the U.S. and has covered politics and other events in 49 of the 50 states.
Fineman's work has produced many milestones and awards. A cover story in November 2001 featured President George W. Bush's first extensive interview after 9/11. Another cover, "Bush and God," was part of a series of articles that won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence. His reporting has helped Newsweek win many honors from the Magazine Publishers Association and the American Journalism Review. Other awards include a "Page One" from the Headliners Club of New York, a "Silver Gavel" from the American Bar Association and a "Deadline Club" from the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ). In 2006 he received the Alumni Award from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism.
As a reporter and writer, Fineman ranges widely. Besides campaign-year covers, other projects have included: race and politics, the impact of digital technology on society, the influence of Hollywood on politics, the rise of the religious right and of conservative talk radio. He has interviewed business leaders such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Steve Case and Robert Rubin and entertainment figures such as Warren Beatty, Jane Fonda and Jay Leno.
Although now under exclusive television contract to NBC, Fineman over the years has appeared on major public affairs shows, such as Nightline, Face the Nation, Fox News Sunday, Larry King Live, Charlie Rose and the NewsHour. He was a regular panelist on Washington Week in Review on PBS (1983-95) and on CNN's Capital Gang Sunday (1995-98). He worked with Ted Koppel on Nightline specials, and has been a guest on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report."
A native of Pittsburgh, Fineman began his career at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, covering the environment, the coal industry and state politics before joining the newspaper's Washington bureau in 1978. He moved to Newsweek in 1980, was named chief political correspondent in 1984, deputy Washington bureau chief in 1993, senior editor in 1995 and senior Washington correspondent and columnist in 2008.
Fineman holds an A.B., Phi Beta Kappa, from Colgate, an M.S. in journalism from Columbia and a J.D. from the Brandeis School of Law at the University of Louisville. His legal education included a year as a visiting student at the Georgetown University Law Center. He received Watson and Pultizer Traveling Fellowships for study in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and has traveled to more than 40 countries, among them China, Vietnam, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey and the West Bank Palestinian Territories.
Fineman is married to Amy L. Nathan, a senior counsel at the Federal Communications Commission. They live in Washington with their two children, Meredith and Nicholas.
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