No Room for Rudy
Can Giuliani win over the major groups that comprise the modern GOP?
New Yorkers are a presumptuous lot, especially about Florida. So many have moved there or vacation there, they think they can wear their Yankees caps around like they run the joint. Perhaps that's why Rudy Giuliani sees Florida as his Cape Canaveral: the launching pad for his better-later-than-never campaign. Having finished way back in the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire, he is on the air in Florida with a million-dollar ad buy and on the ground with a multi-stop bus tour. He and his cash-tight campaign will work the state straight through until the primary on Jan. 29.
At first glance, his "wait for Florida" strategy, which depends on a muddle in the GOP until then, remains plausible. He benefited from Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa, which exposed Mitt Romney's lack of appeal, while elevating a man many party insiders think cannot win in the fall. John McCain's victory in New Hampshire fragmented the field further, and polls are inconclusive in the primary and caucus states between now and Florida. "The party is divided geographically, demographically and ideologically," says GOP pollster John McLaughlin, who is working for Fred Thompson.
But that's where the good news ends for Giuliani. Even if Florida might be congenial territory, the ideological lay of the land in his party is not. Of the three groups that compose the modern GOP—hawks, who want an aggressive foreign policy; evangelicals, who fret about family values, and tax cutters, who think government asphyxiates economic growth—Rudy has yet to find a home in one. Huckabee, the preacher turned politician, has pretty much won the contest for the evangelicals, though they were never going to be on Rudy's team.
Rudy had a chance to secure the hawks, citing his role as America's Mayor. But McCain, touting his war history, his military expertise and his support for the troop surge, rolled over Rudy in New Hampshire like Gen. George Patton crossing the Rhine. And it's not as if Giuliani was absent from the battlefield. He campaigned in the state more often than any other candidate besides McCain, and spent more on ads than anybody but Romney or McCain. They featured scenes of terrorist-generated carnage, suggesting Rudy is best equipped to handle a dangerous world. But he retreated in New Hampshire once it was clear McCain was going to win. "Giuliani is in danger of becoming a man without a country," says Ed Rogers, an unaffiliated GOP consultant.
That explains Rudy's behavior now. For the first time, he's challenging McCain directly on defense matters. In a debate last week, the former mayor said that he, too, had supported the surge on the night the president announced it. McCain noted he'd been agitating for a stronger military presence in Iraq from the start of the war. "John McCain caused the surge!" says adviser Charlie Black. "Rudy's out of this part of the ballgame."
Which leaves the tax-cut crowd. There, Rudy has room. Supply-siders don't like McCain: he voted against the 2003 tax cuts. Huckabee supports a consumption tax, which scares tax cutters who think we'll end up with both an income tax and a national sales tax. Rudy is now pushing a kitchen-sink-full of tax cuts he claims add up to the largest in history. He'll be offering them almost door-to-door in Florida. Just look for the guy in the Yankees cap.
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Howard Fineman is Newsweek's Senior Washington Correspondent and Columnist, senior editor and deputy Washington bureau chief. He is the author of "Living Politics," a column that began on MSNBC.COM and Newsweek.com and that now also appears in the print magazine. An award-winning reporter and writer, Fineman also is an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC, appearing regularly on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and "TODAY." The author of scores of Newsweek cover stories, Fineman's work has appeared as well in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The New Republic. His 2008 national best-selling book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," was released in paperback by Random House in the spring of 2009.
One of the nation's leading political reporters, Fineman has interviewed every major presidential candidate from (then-vice president) George H.W. Bush in 1985 to (then senator) Barack Obama early and often in the 2008 campaign cycle. His current work focuses on the Obama Administration and its top officials, as well as on Congress and politics throughout the country. Although based in Washington, Fineman travels widely in the U.S. and has covered politics and other events in 49 of the 50 states.
Fineman's work has produced many milestones and awards. A cover story in November 2001 featured President George W. Bush's first extensive interview after 9/11. Another cover, "Bush and God," was part of a series of articles that won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence. His reporting has helped Newsweek win many honors from the Magazine Publishers Association and the American Journalism Review. Other awards include a "Page One" from the Headliners Club of New York, a "Silver Gavel" from the American Bar Association and a "Deadline Club" from the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ). In 2006 he received the Alumni Award from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism.
As a reporter and writer, Fineman ranges widely. Besides campaign-year covers, other projects have included: race and politics, the impact of digital technology on society, the influence of Hollywood on politics, the rise of the religious right and of conservative talk radio. He has interviewed business leaders such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Steve Case and Robert Rubin and entertainment figures such as Warren Beatty, Jane Fonda and Jay Leno.
Although now under exclusive television contract to NBC, Fineman over the years has appeared on major public affairs shows, such as Nightline, Face the Nation, Fox News Sunday, Larry King Live, Charlie Rose and the NewsHour. He was a regular panelist on Washington Week in Review on PBS (1983-95) and on CNN's Capital Gang Sunday (1995-98). He worked with Ted Koppel on Nightline specials, and has been a guest on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report."
A native of Pittsburgh, Fineman began his career at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, covering the environment, the coal industry and state politics before joining the newspaper's Washington bureau in 1978. He moved to Newsweek in 1980, was named chief political correspondent in 1984, deputy Washington bureau chief in 1993, senior editor in 1995 and senior Washington correspondent and columnist in 2008.
Fineman holds an A.B., Phi Beta Kappa, from Colgate, an M.S. in journalism from Columbia and a J.D. from the Brandeis School of Law at the University of Louisville. His legal education included a year as a visiting student at the Georgetown University Law Center. He received Watson and Pultizer Traveling Fellowships for study in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and has traveled to more than 40 countries, among them China, Vietnam, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey and the West Bank Palestinian Territories.
Fineman is married to Amy L. Nathan, a senior counsel at the Federal Communications Commission. They live in Washington with their two children, Meredith and Nicholas.
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