Isolation Nation
Mugabe forced out his foe. What comes next won't be pretty.
These are strangely repulsive days in Zimbabwe--a little like watching an Orwellian horror show unfolding in slow motion. Recently, several polling agents loyal to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change were found dead. Whoever had killed them had cut off all of their arms and legs, butchered them and left the remains unceremoniously lying about. Another MDC activist was beaten so badly, and so thoroughly, that her head had swollen to twice its normal size and she was in critical condition at a hospital. But Monday's Herald, the state-run newspaper and mouthpiece of the dictator Robert Mugabe's regime, led with this cheery bulletin: "Government Rolls out Basic Goods." Bravo, Robert Mugabe. Orwell would have been proud.
In fact, there's hardly any news rolling out of Zimbabwe at all these days; the government has made sure of that. And none of it is good, or basic. Instead, it is a baroque litany of terror and mayhem. Yesterday opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai, who has been struggling to unseat Mugabe for over a decade, pulled out of the upcoming runoff election with only five days to go, citing unacceptably high levels of violence. Now, Newsweek has learned, MDC activists are investigating whether Mugabe's regime has been plotting all along to assassinate key members of the opposition in a coordinated plan to "eliminate" certain key players. "This is a war going on out there," says MDC activist Simon Spooner, who estimates that a regime crackdown on the MDC election monitoring structures has left a skeleton crew of 20 to 30 percent of its staff able to work, and those in increasingly life-threatening conditions. "They have systematically gone across the country beating and killing polling agents."
But Tsvangirai's decision to withdraw nevertheless cast everything in turmoil. The opposition candidate still has to officially declare his withdrawal to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. If he goes through with it, Mugabe will go to the polls on Friday unchallenged. Within a day he will have appointed governors, senators and a cabinet. He'll have to convene parliament, which the MDC won by a slim majority in the first round election last March 29th. But Mugabe will retain control over the upper house of government and, with firm control of the presidency, will have cemented his iron grip once again.
He will, however, be increasingly isolated. On Wednesday, in a preemptive move, the MDC plans to formally announce its proposal to form a "transitional government" with Tsvangirai as its leader. The hope is that the implosion of the economy, increased pressure from neighboring African states like Zambia and Botswana, and a renewed effort to get United Nations Security Council-approved sanctions will be too much pressure for Mugabe to withstand. This week, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa called for a delay in the elections, and is reported to be in talks to take an increased role in putting pressure on the 84-year old Mugabe to accept some sort of negotiated settlement. Even Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, Mugabe's long-standing ally, has begun to question his neighbor's behavior. Yesterday, Mugabe told supporters that "only God" would remove him from power.
A deal is unlikely, however. More probable is that Mugabe will choose to isolate himself further. Even after Tsvangirai's announcement yesterday, Mugabe thugs assaulted Harvest House, the MDC headquarters in the capital Harare, and arrested over 60 more activists. (Tsvangirai himself has reportedly taken refuge at the Dutch embassy there, out of concern for his safety). "The stance they're taking is they want to keep beating people up, intimidating, cowing everyone," says one international observer in Harare, "It's 'kick them when they're down and eliminate them as any kind of force.'" That strategy may backfire. For one, the economy has imploded. One U.S. dollar today will get you $10,000,000,000 (that's ten billion in case you had difficulty with the zeros) Zimbabwean dollars. Industry has ground to a halt. And with international NGO's forced to halt their work, and maize imports from neighboring countries like Zambia on the decline, Mugabe's worst enemy could turn out to be hunger, anger and the winter cold that has descended upon southern Africa--in other words, all the ingredients for a revolution.
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Scott Johnson was named Africa Bureau Chief in April 2007, after serving two years as Baghdad Bureau Chief since the spring of 2004. In the summer of 2007, Johnson co-authored, with Sharon Begley, Newsweek's July cover story "Slaughter in the Jungle," about a spate of rare mountain gorilla killings in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He has also been covering, for the magazine and Newsweek's Web site, the economic collapse of Zimbabwe, health initiatives across the continent and the rise of China in Africa.
Prior to coming to Africa, Johnson worked on assignment in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. He was on assignment in Iraq during the invasion and returned several times during 2002 and 2003 to report on the post-invasion occupation. During his two years as Baghdad bureau chief, Johnson covered the rise of Iraq's sectarian war, the trial and execution of Saddam Hussein and the American military's attempt to quell the insurgency in places like Ramadi and Baghdad. He contributed exclusive reporting on the growth of death squads in Baghdad, Iran's growing influence in Iraq and American military and political developments in Baghdad.
Before coming to Iraq, Johnson covered the war in Afghanistan from October 2001 to April 2002, reporting on the fall of the Taliban from the front lines of Kunduz and Taloqan. Later on, Johnson traveled across Afghanistan reporting on the hunt for Al Qaeda and the resurgence of the Taliban as American forces drew down its presence. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, Johnson has done exclusive war reporting, often under fire and in the most dangerous situations. In Iraq, he covered the hunt for Saddam Hussein with exclusive access to the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment and the 4th Infantry Division. He also contributed extensive exclusive reporting early in 2003 on the nascent Iraqi insurgency from Fallujah.
In between posts to Baghdad, Johnson was provisionally based in Mexico City from 2002 to 2006. When not covering the war, Johnson reported on political and economic developments across Latin America. In 2002 he authored a Newsweek International cover story on the rise of China in Mexico. In 2004 he received an Overseas Press Club Honorable Mention for "Best Reporting in any Medium on Latin America" for "Latin America Lags Behind," about economic trends across the hemisphere. In Latin America, Johnson also covered violence along the U.S-Mexico border, the creation of Mexico's freedom of information act and an experimental drug treatment center in Peru.
Previously, Johnson reported for Newsweek out of Paris, France, since October 1998. During that time, he has reported on many of the biggest stories to come out of the continent, including Europe's mad cow scare, the backlash against globalization, and Newsweek's military coverage of the Kosovo war out of southern Italy. He has also developed in-depth investigative pieces from Europe, and he contributed heavily to Newsweek's worldwide report on pedophilia and the Internet. He has also covered North Africa, covering terrorism pre-and-post 9/11.
Johnson is a frequent contributor to radio, most recently from Iraq where he has interviewed on NPR, The World and other national stations, and he has been seen on MSNBC, Fox and CNN. In addition to Newsweek, his writing has appeared in Le Courrier International and Letras Libres. Johnson was also part of the Iraq team that contributed to Newsweek's 2003 National Magazine Award.
Johnson is a 1996 graduate of the University of Washington, where he received double degrees in Comparative Literature and Comparative History of Ideas. Postgraduate work included Arabic language and Middle Eastern Studies in Fes, Morocco. He is a member of the Anglo-American Press Association in Paris.
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