Good Luck to the Next Guy
George W. Bush is leaving a mess for the next guy
At the zenith of his presidency, George W. Bush wore a flight suit— but now he's leaving his successor in a straitjacket. As the presidential candidates tout their plans for the future, it's easy to overlook the dismal reality: there's a colossal mismatch between the problems we face and the next president's power to deal with them. Either Barack Obama or John McCain will have to lead a country crippled by debt—and that was before the $700 billion federal bailout of private lenders—and burdened by an array of practically inescapable military commitments. "It's close to an impossible situation," Leon Panetta, the White House chief of staff in Bill Clinton's first term, told me. "The next guy, whoever he is, will be a one-term president—if he is lucky."
At his Inauguration in 1989, Bush's father complained about the fiscal limitations he would face: "We have the will but not the wallet"; now his son is leaving the next president in the same position. People who study the federal balance sheet suggest that we do not have the cash flow to support Obama's social-spending proposals or McCain's corporate-tax-cut commitments. Even with roads, bridges and city schools crumbling, it is hard to justify borrowing more from foreigners at a time when they hold nearly $3 trillion in U.S. government debt obligations.
One of the next administration's biggest decisions—the credit bailout—has already been decided for it. It will reorder the way the markets are regulated and your tax money is lent, and yet neither Obama nor McCain has had much of a say in the building of this new machine. It's as if the New Deal had been launched in the last days of the Hoover administration. I asked James A. Baker III, the chief of staff (and cabinet officer) under Ronald Reagan and Bush Sr., whether this was an unusual situation. "It sure is," he told me. "There is a lot that is already baked in the cake."
Foreign creditors, Panetta notes, have an increasing say in our fiscal affairs, and Baker sees no easy way to withdraw from Iraq, Afghanistan and the Pakistani frontier. "The differences between Obama and McCain are far less than meets the eye because their options in the region are so limited," Baker says. "Obama is not going to cut and run in Iraq, and we have no choice but to step up our role in the other places." The Israelis are eager for the new president to restart peace negotiations, but never has America had less leverage or respect with Israel's enemies.
Can the new president wiggle out of his predicament? Yes, say Panetta and Baker, and they agree on the method of escape: a sustained effort at bipartisanship. "The next president has got to fix our dysfunctional political system," Baker says. "All of this hyperpartisanship is ruining our faith in our own ability to govern ourselves." It's no coincidence that McCain and Obama are stressing their skills at reaching across the aisle. But it won't be easy to deliver. If McCain wins in November, the "maverick" will face a Democratic Congress—and thus no choice but to try bipartisanship. Obama's scenario is more complex. If he wins, he is likely to be joined by a much-enhanced Democratic majority in Congress. Does Mr. Consensus make common cause with beleaguered Republicans or hunker down with his own? Going your own way can work, but, as Bush's tenure has shown, not for long, and not in a way that does the country—and the office of the presidency—much good.
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Howard Fineman is Newsweek's Senior Washington Correspondent and Columnist, senior editor and deputy Washington bureau chief. He is the author of "Living Politics," a column that began on MSNBC.COM and Newsweek.com and that now also appears in the print magazine. An award-winning reporter and writer, Fineman also is an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC, appearing regularly on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and "TODAY." The author of scores of Newsweek cover stories, Fineman's work has appeared as well in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The New Republic. His 2008 national best-selling book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," was released in paperback by Random House in the spring of 2009.
One of the nation's leading political reporters, Fineman has interviewed every major presidential candidate from (then-vice president) George H.W. Bush in 1985 to (then senator) Barack Obama early and often in the 2008 campaign cycle. His current work focuses on the Obama Administration and its top officials, as well as on Congress and politics throughout the country. Although based in Washington, Fineman travels widely in the U.S. and has covered politics and other events in 49 of the 50 states.
Fineman's work has produced many milestones and awards. A cover story in November 2001 featured President George W. Bush's first extensive interview after 9/11. Another cover, "Bush and God," was part of a series of articles that won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence. His reporting has helped Newsweek win many honors from the Magazine Publishers Association and the American Journalism Review. Other awards include a "Page One" from the Headliners Club of New York, a "Silver Gavel" from the American Bar Association and a "Deadline Club" from the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ). In 2006 he received the Alumni Award from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism.
As a reporter and writer, Fineman ranges widely. Besides campaign-year covers, other projects have included: race and politics, the impact of digital technology on society, the influence of Hollywood on politics, the rise of the religious right and of conservative talk radio. He has interviewed business leaders such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Steve Case and Robert Rubin and entertainment figures such as Warren Beatty, Jane Fonda and Jay Leno.
Although now under exclusive television contract to NBC, Fineman over the years has appeared on major public affairs shows, such as Nightline, Face the Nation, Fox News Sunday, Larry King Live, Charlie Rose and the NewsHour. He was a regular panelist on Washington Week in Review on PBS (1983-95) and on CNN's Capital Gang Sunday (1995-98). He worked with Ted Koppel on Nightline specials, and has been a guest on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report."
A native of Pittsburgh, Fineman began his career at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, covering the environment, the coal industry and state politics before joining the newspaper's Washington bureau in 1978. He moved to Newsweek in 1980, was named chief political correspondent in 1984, deputy Washington bureau chief in 1993, senior editor in 1995 and senior Washington correspondent and columnist in 2008.
Fineman holds an A.B., Phi Beta Kappa, from Colgate, an M.S. in journalism from Columbia and a J.D. from the Brandeis School of Law at the University of Louisville. His legal education included a year as a visiting student at the Georgetown University Law Center. He received Watson and Pultizer Traveling Fellowships for study in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and has traveled to more than 40 countries, among them China, Vietnam, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey and the West Bank Palestinian Territories.
Fineman is married to Amy L. Nathan, a senior counsel at the Federal Communications Commission. They live in Washington with their two children, Meredith and Nicholas.
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