Time To Go Back Home

Would-be migrants, take note: for the first time in modern British history, the government is soon expected to release a list of just who is and who is not eligible to move in and seek employment in the country. Apart from EU citizens, who are legally entitled to settle in Britain, the country is ready to welcome ballet dancers, geologists, engineers and others who the government has decided could fill crucial holes in the workforce. But others—midwives, social workers, curry chefs and others already in abundance in Britain—are being turned away. It's all part of a new system that awards marks to prospective newcomers based on their skills or qualifications— a system that holds no place whatsoever for unskilled laborers, and one that former immigration minister Liam Byrne has said will ensure that "only those we want and no more come here to work."

Such micromanagement reflects a growing concern over immigration, long a hot-button issue in the rest of Europe and an increasingly contentious one in Britain. Almost alone in the EU, the British threw open their doors to migrants from the new member states in 2004. Tax breaks for wealthy foreigners helped attract Arabs and Russians to London. But such generosity has its limits. Net immigration topped 300,000 in 2006, three times the average figure in the mid-'90s—a level "unprecedented in our history," according to a parliamentary inquiry earlier this year. With the exception of the United States, Britain took in more immigrants in 2006 than any of the world's leading economies, according to the latest figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. More recently, England outstripped the Netherlands to become the most densely populated country in Europe, apart from tiny Malta, according to government statistics. And there's more to come: over the next 50 years, the United Kingdom's population will climb roughly 25 percent, from 61 million to 77 million, according to EU projections. By contrast, the populations of Germany and Italy are expected to fall (from 82 million and 58 million, respectively), while France will gain just 10 million—a 16 percent increase from its current population of 62 million.

Given the magnitude of the numbers, immigration has ranked as the "No. 1 issue of public concern," the inquiry found, ahead of terrorism or law and order over the past several years. As the economy craters, opinion is now hardening. The mix of large numbers of incomers—particularly in London and southeastern England—has strained the budgets of local authorities in such areas as public housing and education, and complicated the standard calculus between immigration and economic gain. On the one hand, ministers are keen to claim a link between immigration and Britain's economic performance under Labour rule. On the other, they recognize that a nervous public wants action. The champions of change point in particular to the parliamentary inquiry's conclusion that there was "no evidence that net immigration generates significant economic benefits for the existing U.K. population." A poll last month found that more than 80 percent of voters from both the leading parties favored stricter curbs on immigration.

Already, the government has introduced sweeping changes. Apart from restricting immigration to particular categories of skilled workers, it has created a new uniformed border control force at ports and airports and recently launched an identity-card program for some foreign residents. But politicians, Conservative and Labour alike, are pressing for still stronger measures. A newly formed all-party coalition of M.P.s last month called for an annual cap on immigrants from outside the EU as well as limiting their stay in Britain to just four years. The goal: to stabilize the population at 65 million by midcentury. Then there's a further complication: political strategists know that pushing too hard on the immigration issue can raise accusations of racism. Notably, Prime Minister Gordon Brown made no reference to the subject in his keynote speech to last month's Labour Party conference. For that matter, Conservative leader David Cameron, while endorsing the idea of a cap, has also shied away from the subject, eager to avoid the old image of his party as xenophobic.

Paradoxically, the country's best hope for dealing with the issue without creating a major political battle may lie with recession. A poor economy typically sparks resentment against immigrants, who are seen as taking much-needed jobs from the native-born. But anecdotal evidence suggests that tens of thousands of Poles are already heading home as the British economy falters. Others may be following, and by next year the country might not be looking so attractive to those rejected midwives and curry chefs anyhow.