Why Iran is Cooling Off
For reasons that remain unclear to the Bush administration and its allies, the level of violence attributable to Iranian-backed insurgents in both Iraq and Afghanistan is falling. Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell says the trend dates back to an Iraqi-government assault last spring on militants in the Basra region of southern Iraq. After the crackdown, Iranian-supported insurgents (known to U.S. officials as "special groups") fled into Iran, where they have since been cooling their heels. Still, according to one U.S. counterterrorism official, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, some reports suggest that Iraqi militants are still actively being trained inside Iran for attacks on U.S. forces.
Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, intelligence reports last year indicated that Iran was also supplying terrorist-style arms to anti-American militants there. But the latest intelligence indicates that the level of bombing technology used by the Taliban in recent IED attacks is far less sophisticated than the devices used by Shia militants in Iraq—evidence that Iran is exercising restraint in its dealings with Afghan insurgents.
The question is, why? Another U.S. official, who also requested anonymity, said that Iran may be turning down the heat on American forces in the region in anticipation of a Barack Obama victory in the presidential election. According to this theory, Iran's theocrats fear an Obama presidency would greatly improve American esteem among European governments; the Iranians believe these leaders indulge Tehran now chiefly because of their disdain for President Bush.
A drop in Iranian-instigated paramilitary attacks does not mean that Tehran has ceased making mischief in the region. Recently, Morrell says, Iranian operatives have been actively pressing Iraqi politicians to oppose U.S. efforts to reach a new "Status of Forces Agreement" with the Iraqi government regarding the continued presence there of American troops. He said Iranian efforts have included trying to orchestrate anti-U.S. demonstrations in Shia neighborhoods and funding attempts to bribe Iraqi politicians.
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Mark Hosenball joined Newsweek as an investigative correspondent in November 1993, covering a range of issues for the National Affairs department. Most recently, he has written and reported numerous stories on terrorism and the Sept. 11 attacks on America. He has also covered campaign finance, the Monica Lewinsky controversy, the death of Princess Diana, Whitewater, the crashes of EgyptAir flight 990 and TWA flight 800, as well as related air safety issues.
Hosenball came to Newsweek from "Dateline NBC," where he worked as an investigative producer. He also worked extensively as a print journalist, writing for a number of British and American publications, including the London Sunday Times, the London Evening Standard, Time Out, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and The New Republic. In addition, he has done commentaries for American Public Radio.
Hosenball has been honored with a number of prestigious awards. Most recently, along with a team of Newsweek correspondents, he was awarded the Overseas Press Club's most prestigious honor, the 2002 Ed Cunningham Memorial Award for best magazine reporting from abroad for Newsweek's coverage of the war on terror. His reporting and that of his colleagues earned Newsweek the prestigious National Magazine Award for General Excellence in 2002 for its coverage of September 11 and its aftermath. And a story he co-authored was highlighted in a citation Newsweek received by the White House Correspondents' Association when it awarded the magazine the 2002 Edgar A. Poe Award for "excellence on a story of national or regional importance. "Newsweek's September 11 coverage started long before the attacks. An article in the magazine's February 19, 2001 issue warned with chilling accuracy: 'The threat posed by (Osama) bin Laden is growing -- and coming ever closer to home."
Hosenball was a contributor to the CANAL + TV documentary, "L'Argent de la Drogue" (Drug Money), which was awarded the "Sept D'Or," the French equivalent of an Emmy. He also contributed to NBC News' coverage of the BCCI scandal, which earned a 1991 Peabody Award.
He attended the University of Pennsylvania and Trinity College in Dublin. He lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his wife and son.
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