Crunch Time

Nobody ever said of a president, "Wow! He had a great second hundred days!" But presidents are rightly judged by their first year in office—a standard embraced by an Obama White House that knows most scoring in presidencies is done over the first quarter of a four-year term. And so, by definition, the middle part of this first year is critical.

So what to expect from Obama and his people in the next three or four months?

First, you always have to expect the unexpected, and plan for it: a flu epidemic that turns deadly on a large scale and shuts down the country; a Taliban takeover of once secure cities in Pakistan; another big "run" in international markets that sends the Dow to new lows.

But even if nothing huge happens, the pace won't ease much. That means even more long nights for Obamanians at the office, with just a few breaks to watch the NBA playoffs in the White House theater (as some aides did this week), as long as the Chicago Bulls are still in it. Overall, the White House will stay on the offensive, with plenty more announcements of Recovery Act goodies or small new initiatives to help the economy.

We'll soon know the result of the stress tests of banks. If they go badly, look for a renewed call for nationalization. If they go better than expected, then several banks may try to pay back the government so that they can resume paying those insane bonuses their executives somehow feel entitled to. We'll also soon know whether those "public-private investment partnerships" meant to save the banks really work. Odds are that either the banks won't sell their toxic assets because the price is too low, or the Masters of the Universe won't buy them because the price is too high. Either way, we are likely headed back to the drawing board on what should be Job One: restoring credit. Also in the economic sphere, deadlines for the auto companies are looming. That means that GM and Chrysler might both go bankrupt by summer—a once mind-blowing contingency that has been factored in and rendered a less-than-earthshaking story by everyone except auto executives and the very unfortunate tens of thousands of working people who will lose their jobs.

Abroad, the biggest upcoming event may be Iran's June elections. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is reelected, expect to see the Republicans continue their assault on Obama's alleged "appeasement" of Tehran. But should Ahmadinejad lose, then a new, more peaceful wind could blow through the Iranian capital, and Washington, too.

Strange to say, the second hundred days may also be the days Obama officials learn where the office bathrooms are. Scores at the subcabinet level have yet to be confirmed, much less start their jobs (some can start without confirmation). Absent a huge new external crisis, Obama's grade for this period will in part reflect whether he can finally get a full team on the field.

Perhaps most important, Obama will be judged over the second hundred days on how much he holds out for—and how much he gets—in the looming debates over health care and energy. Is he wedded to a "public option" for those who don't like their private insurers? Will he fight for a cap-and-trade system?

We might not know all the answers in the second hundred days, but we'll be getting warmer, in more ways than one.