The Slippery Side Of 60
D.C.'s new arithmetic of power.
Nice guy though he is, Sen. Ben Nelson is like the Platte River in his home state of Nebraska: broad and slow-moving. He is an insurance lawyer by trade—small-town, soft-spoken. But in the Senate last week he was getting the Susan Boyle treatment, surrounded by reporters eager to hear his every word. I was one of them, because Nelson—and a handful of other Democrats who call themselves centrists—are suddenly key to the new arithmetic of power in Washington, D.C.
Since Election Day, Democrats have dreamed of reaching the sunny uplands of a filibuster-proof Senate majority. Now that Sen. Arlen Specter has switched parties, and Al Franken seems likely to win his vote-count court case, they are approaching the commanding heights. But they ought to be careful what they wish for. The history of fat congressional majorities is mixed. They can stoke unrealistic expectations among interest groups and magnify the role of outliers and egos. There is a risk of philosophical overkill, internal civil war and the kind of political myopia that eventually empowers the opposition party (yes, even one as lost as this GOP).
The country's philosophical fault lines don't disappear when one party is in power; they just appear as internecine battles. If and when the Democrats get to 60, the party's core liberal-progressive interests are likely to demand prompt action on a host of topics. But if every action requires 60—and that's becoming the norm in the Senate—the ironic result will be to empower the party's centrist wing. "We're going to spend all of our time dealing with those guys, I'm afraid," said a Senate leadership aide, who declined to be identified because he didn't want to antagonize them.
Take Nelson. He voted against President Obama's budget; doesn't want to give bankruptcy judges power to "cram down" home-mortgage payments; is wary of taking on credit-card companies that charge high interest rates; and is skeptical of "card check," labor's top legislative priority. He also opposes a "public option" on health care—"That would be a deal breaker for me," he says. (Eighteen other Democratic senators are on record saying that any reform without such an option is a deal breaker for them.) "I'd remind the president that having 60 members does not equate to 60 votes," Nelson told me.
Specter won't be any more tractable. Just dealing with him could be a full-time job, as it was for top Republicans. Obama and Sen. Harry Reid promised to support Specter's candidacy for reelection next year as a Democrat. Their operating assumption was that Specter would help pass health care, which may be true, and that his status as a new Democrat facing a primary would pull him to the left. But his first votes—on the budget and mortgage rewrites—were against the administration.
Specter poses housekeeping problems as well, which seem trivial but loom large in the status-obsessed Senate. Reid promised to honor Specter's seniority while not "bumping" any committee or subcommittee chairs. How Reid does this without offending the prickly Specter or the existing chairs is unclear. "We don't play bumper cars here," said Sen. Barbara Mikulski. (Translation: get in line, bud.)
With Justice David Souter retiring, it's worth noting that Specter and Nelson voted for John Roberts and Samuel Alito. Specter joined Democrats years ago in opposing Robert Bork for the high court, an apostasy for which the Republican right never forgave him. (He went on to vote for Clarence Thomas.) Specter being Specter —a man with very high regard for his own legal knowledge—he'll want to be front and center for confirmation hearings. Will the leadership let him? Congratulations, Democrats, that's now up to you.
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Howard Fineman is Newsweek's Senior Washington Correspondent and Columnist, senior editor and deputy Washington bureau chief. He is the author of "Living Politics," a column that began on MSNBC.COM and Newsweek.com and that now also appears in the print magazine. An award-winning reporter and writer, Fineman also is an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC, appearing regularly on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and "TODAY." The author of scores of Newsweek cover stories, Fineman's work has appeared as well in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The New Republic. His 2008 national best-selling book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," was released in paperback by Random House in the spring of 2009.
One of the nation's leading political reporters, Fineman has interviewed every major presidential candidate from (then-vice president) George H.W. Bush in 1985 to (then senator) Barack Obama early and often in the 2008 campaign cycle. His current work focuses on the Obama Administration and its top officials, as well as on Congress and politics throughout the country. Although based in Washington, Fineman travels widely in the U.S. and has covered politics and other events in 49 of the 50 states.
Fineman's work has produced many milestones and awards. A cover story in November 2001 featured President George W. Bush's first extensive interview after 9/11. Another cover, "Bush and God," was part of a series of articles that won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence. His reporting has helped Newsweek win many honors from the Magazine Publishers Association and the American Journalism Review. Other awards include a "Page One" from the Headliners Club of New York, a "Silver Gavel" from the American Bar Association and a "Deadline Club" from the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ). In 2006 he received the Alumni Award from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism.
As a reporter and writer, Fineman ranges widely. Besides campaign-year covers, other projects have included: race and politics, the impact of digital technology on society, the influence of Hollywood on politics, the rise of the religious right and of conservative talk radio. He has interviewed business leaders such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Steve Case and Robert Rubin and entertainment figures such as Warren Beatty, Jane Fonda and Jay Leno.
Although now under exclusive television contract to NBC, Fineman over the years has appeared on major public affairs shows, such as Nightline, Face the Nation, Fox News Sunday, Larry King Live, Charlie Rose and the NewsHour. He was a regular panelist on Washington Week in Review on PBS (1983-95) and on CNN's Capital Gang Sunday (1995-98). He worked with Ted Koppel on Nightline specials, and has been a guest on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report."
A native of Pittsburgh, Fineman began his career at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, covering the environment, the coal industry and state politics before joining the newspaper's Washington bureau in 1978. He moved to Newsweek in 1980, was named chief political correspondent in 1984, deputy Washington bureau chief in 1993, senior editor in 1995 and senior Washington correspondent and columnist in 2008.
Fineman holds an A.B., Phi Beta Kappa, from Colgate, an M.S. in journalism from Columbia and a J.D. from the Brandeis School of Law at the University of Louisville. His legal education included a year as a visiting student at the Georgetown University Law Center. He received Watson and Pultizer Traveling Fellowships for study in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and has traveled to more than 40 countries, among them China, Vietnam, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey and the West Bank Palestinian Territories.
Fineman is married to Amy L. Nathan, a senior counsel at the Federal Communications Commission. They live in Washington with their two children, Meredith and Nicholas.
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