‘You’re Going to See the Iraqis in Control’

How are you feeling about this withdrawal?
The overall security in Iraq still is moving in the right direction. If you go back to 2006-2007, that was the highest level of violence.  As you look around the country you can see security is really improving. Recent attacks are the work of people that don't want to see Iraq succeed and make progress. The 30th of June is a real mark of progress. First, overall security is better. Second, the Iraqi Security Forces' capability continues to improve. The third factor is governance:  I think people underestimate the significance of the provincial elections [last January]. All the people participated and chose [candidates] based on a whole range of issues, not based on sectarian or religious issues. All of those things make me feel at ease as we go to this next milestone.

How will July 1 be different from June 30th?
The bottom line is, we've been slowly getting ready to do this now for about eight months … You're going to see the Iraqis in control inside the cities. You're going to see Coalition forces out in the belts around the major cities. There will be key areas where they will continue to be partnered with Iraqi Security Forces, because this ultimately is about maintaining security and stability while we continue to go forward.

Where are your troops going to be?
We'll still be around. We have small outposts all around Baghdad that we've had for a very long time. We won't all go back to one big base. We'll be in several bases. We will still have a small number of trainers and advisers--people who can help enable operations that are made in the cities. We will provide them some technical support … We will [be able] to react quickly if we need to and that's why we set this up the way it is. And we did that jointly at the local level all the way up the prime minister.

You're down to about 130,000 troops from 160,000. Where will those who are leaving go?
A very small number have gone to Afghanistan;  I would say 2,000 of those.  The rest have gone back to the United States and they'll go back into the force pool to be used for Afghanistan and other places.  Some will go to Afghanistan next year, but what we hope this will do is increase the amount of time between assignments.

Do you think there will be more of the current attacks?
I think we'll have some more over the next couple of weeks … Obviously, if this continued for a long period of time this would be a significant problem.  I do not think that they will be able to. I've told everyone that … by the middle of August will be the first point at which we will assess [and say] OK, this is where I think we are, we've pulled out of the cities, we can pause a bit and ask how are we doing. How do things look from a security standpoint.

What issues concern you most?
Arab-Kurd [animosity] issues are probably [what] I worry about most.  They have a process that they usually can [use to] resolve that, but it will take some time to do that.  So the point is to make sure that we continue to have the discussion.  That affects Mosul and Nineveh, Kirkuk and Diyala. What we have done is take the Iraqi forces and Peshmerga forces best as we can to make sure there's no violence and let politicians resolve these issues. The second is political--that in the run-up to parliamentary elections that political rhetoric increases and [whether] that will be reflected in increased violence. Third is, if for some reason we continue to see a frustration by the people of not seeing jobs increase … what will their reactions be? That's one I watch very carefully as a potential flashpoint.  And obviously, with the attacks we've seen [recently], any indicators of a return to sectarian violence.