A Gloomy Dawn

After 12 years in the wilderness, Britain's Conservative Party is poised for victory in the next general election, which must be called by next June. The Tories have enjoyed a solid lead in the polls for two years. Their leader, David Cameron, has reversed their reputation as the "nasty party," greening their policies, pledging allegiance to the National Health Service, and widening their appeal. Meanwhile, the ruling Labour Party seems a spent force; one poll two weeks ago even put it behind Britain's Liberal Democrats. So why weren't the Conservatives celebrating at their annual conference in Manchester last week?

For starters, they dared not look complacent; champagne was banned at official events. But there's more to it than appearances. The Tories have reason to feel insecure. Unlike the "new dawn" that greeted Labour's return to power in 1997, the Conservatives' victory may be far gloomier, featuring a weak mandate constrained by a weak economy and an inexperienced government driving a weak, wobbly agenda.

Despite the Conservatives' double-digit lead, the electoral mechanics remain stacked against them. Because of the way districts are drawn, among other technical quirks, Labour enjoys a built-in 7 to 10 percent advantage not reflected in poll numbers. And given the current makeup of Parliament, the Conservatives will need to win 117 seats to gain a majority. That's "a massive hill to climb," says Tory chairman Eric Pickles. So massive that no party has managed it since 1931. Should today's Tories fail, the result could be a "hung" Parliament, in which no party has a majority.

Then there's the message problem. Until last week, Cameron always managed to stay studiously vague about what a Tory government would look like. It was a sensible tactic for a time, since Cameron's greatest ally has been Gordon Brown's profound unpopularity. But Cameron's coyness recently has begun to wear thin, leading even some supporters to start calling for him to get specific. In a radio interview on the eve of the conference, Tory blogger Tim Montgomerie said it was fair for voters to wonder if the Tories' evasive tactics had "so entered their DNA that there isn't a big political mission."

Last week Cameron sought to confront such criticism by making his positions plain. He opened the door to tax hikes. He called for cuts in the number of disabled Britons on welfare. He announced a plan to raise the eligibility age for state pensions. Still, some pundits are urging him to go further. Tony Blair helped define himself and his party by severing its traditional ties with the unions. YouGov pollster Peter Kellner says Cameron would benefit by picking a similar fight—say, with bankers over bonuses.

It's often tempting to see British elections entirely through the prism of game-changing leaders like Blair or Margaret Thatcher. But the people around them also matter. The ministers who came to power with Blair were relatively young and inexperienced (understandably, since the Conservatives had been in power for nearly two decades), but they were graybeards compared with Cameron's crew, many of whom have been M.P.s only since 2001 or 2005. Financial experts have raised questions about the economic competence of Cameron's friend and adviser, shadow chancellor George Osborne, 38. Osborne, who was elected to Parliament eight years ago, sought with some success to burnish his reputation last week with a no-nonsense, even risky speech outlining the coming cuts and fiscal pain.

His talk pointed at what's perhaps the biggest reason the Tories should be worried: the economy. The conventional wisdom is that Brown will wait until the last minute to call an election. By then, the economy is expected to be recovering. But that, perversely, could spell trouble for the Tories. An economy on the mend would bolster Brown's claims of fiscal competence and could actually lessen the severity of Labour's defeat.

Even if the economy does start to turn around, moreover, a full recovery could take a decade. Britain's deficit next year, as a share of GDP, will be the highest in the G7, according to the IMF. Its accumulation of debt between 2007 and 2014 will also be the biggest in the group. No matter what size the Conservatives' victory, therefore, they are certain to preside over hard times. The task for Cameron between now and the election is, as a would-be prime minister, to get the country used to that grim fact—no easy feat for a politician looking to broaden his appeal.