We Read It So You Don’t Have To: ‘The Predictioneer’s Game’

Using game theory and computer modeling, nyu professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita applies a scientific method to decision making and uses it to forecast global politics. Four of his calculations:

If the U.S. doubles its aid to Pakistan this year to $1.5 billion, it would be enough to ensure a civil, secular government that no longer accommodates terrorists.

By 2012 Iran's bonyads—charitable trusts that control much of the economy—will wield more political clout than any other faction; a more secular regime will emerge.

Copenhagen will be a bust, as will its main mission: by 2040 we'll have given up on regulating carbon emissions. Global warming will be solved with wind, rain, and solar invention.

The best path to peace in the Middle East: make Israel and the Palestinian Authority share tax revenue from tourism, 60–40, boosting the P.A.'s GDP by 20 percent.