Pulling ‘the Bush Card’

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs usually takes the podium with confidence, fully prepared to offer skillfully vague answers to reporters' questions. But on Tuesday, the day of Massachusetts's special election to pick a new U.S. senator, Gibbs had his back against the wall. With polls showing the Democratic candidate headed for defeat, the challenge was to argue that a turning political tide in Massachusetts—the nation's bluest state—didn't undercut the mandate that carried Obama to office a year ago. After repeated questioning about the election, Gibbs finally relented. "Look, the president is—he understands that there is frustration out there, and he's frustrated himself." Obama's frustration could only get worse as the results came in; his party lost, instantly unraveling his filibuster-proof Senate majority. Having spent political capital on a last-minute campaign appearance on behalf of Democratic nominee Martha Coakley, the margin of victory, 52-47, came with a healthy helping of egg on face.

In the minds of Democratic leaders nursing their electoral hangovers, of course, the outcome should have been different. "Tactical mistakes were most definitely made," says one Democratic strategist, who, like others in this story, asked not to be identified speaking candidly. "We could have won that, we should have won that." Says another strategist: "[Republican Scott Brown] ran a brilliant campaign. He didn't run as a Republican at all. He saw populist anger and he tapped into it."

The important political question for Democrats now is who this "populist anger" is directed at and why. The answer, they hope, is all of Washington, not just President Obama or his allies in Congress. Former DNC spokesperson Karen Finney sees it as a tough year for incumbents. "Most of the anger and frustration is directed toward Washington in general," she says. "It's directed at incumbents, and there are more Democratic incumbents than Republicans." Come November it may not be as simple as Republicans just picking up seats. Democrats challenging GOP incumbents may also have luck if they harp on the Washington infighting and structural problems with the federal government.

Antipathy toward big-business elites who profited during the Bush years and contributed to the economy's downfall is the other card Democrats can play. It's why the White House pivoted to offense earlier this month, taking up a tax on the largest financial firms in order to recoup bailout money. Obama's oft-repeated soundbite, "We want our money back and we're going to get it," was a strategically populist line that allowed Democrats to pin Republicans to the mat as being on the side of the banks—the same week Wall Street was handing out billions in end-of-year bonuses. There's reason to believe it will work: polling since last fall has shown that Americans approve of regulating bank salaries by more than 4 to 1. Tapping into broad antibank sentiment is valuable territory on which Republicans won't be able to encroach.

The same may be true on national security, traditionally a hard and fast conservative issue. After increasing troop levels in Afghanistan, Obama took on the risk of the strategy failing, but also the credit if it succeeds. After initial criticism of his handling of the attempted Christmas Day airline attack, Obama reacted with a quick and comprehensive review of security policies and is implementing changes. If he keeps that steady footing, he will be able to at least neutralize a potential Republican line of attack, while congressional Democrats can remind voters back home that it was George W. Bush who invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, and mishandled the postwar occupation.

In the halls of the Democratic Senatorial and Congressional campaign committees, the election storyline is already taking shape. "We need to keep the focus on jobs and the economy, drawing a sharp contrast between Republicans standing with Wall Street and us with Main Street," says Ryan Rudominer, press secretary for the DCCC. "The choice is between the party that landed us in this mess, and us, the party they elected to help clean it up."

That strategy is referred to privately by other Democrats as pulling the "Bush card." It certainly worked wonders in 2008, although many also realize that the window for using it is quickly closing.