Virginia’s Rebel Yell

As hard as the health-care fight has been for Democrats, the greater challenge may come if their bill is made into law. At issue is the "individual mandate," a statute that would require all Americans to buy insurance or face a penalty tax. It has presidential backing, a green light from both houses of -Congress—and it's expected to survive the legislative compromise process given that the alternative is either higher premiums or higher taxes.

But legal scholars have questioned its constitutionality for months. And now the debate has shifted from theory to reality: Republicans in at least 30 states have launched bills that would reject the mandate. Earlier this month Tennessee enacted legislation that would require its attorney general to defend people who refuse insurance, and Virginia, pending the governor's expected signature, may soon be the first state to tell residents they would not need to comply. "We're ready to go," says Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who has vowed (with Florida's Bill McCollum and at least a dozen other attorneys general) to file suit against the mandate the moment it becomes law.

Federal law, of course, would override this maneuvering. But it still means headaches for the president: widespread civil disobedience, and, given that there's no precedent for an individual mandate, the strong possibility that a challenge would wind up at the Supreme Court, where legal scholars aren't sure the government would have a slam-dunk case. "The federal government would be doing something new," says Jonathan Siegel, a constitutional-law scholar at George Washington University. "It's not a trivial claim" for the states to make. "It's not frivolous."